Integrated Modeling of European Migration

Abstract

International migration data in Europe are collected by individual countries with separate collection systems and designs. As a result, reported data are inconsistent in availability, definition and quality. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian

Measuring flows of international migration

“…One thing that has become clear from the IMEM research [1] and earlier efforts by the MIMOSA team [2], and a third relevant model developed by Abel [13], is that the reported population totals for countries in the EU and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) are overstated. This is because they do not adjust for different measurements of migration data, nor do they account for underreporting of emigration.…”

“…Previous work of the author together with Jakub Bijak, Joop de Beer, Jon Forster, Peter Smith, Rob van der Erf, and Arkadiusz Wiśniowski contains a larger number of background references for the material presented here and has been used intensively in all major parts of this article [1], [2], [10], [11].…”

“…Since 2007, there have been two international and interdisciplinary research projects focused on modeling migration flows in Europe [9]: Migration Modelling for Statistical Analyses (MIMOSA) conducted from January 2007 to December 2009 [2], [10] and Integrated Modelling of European Migration (IMEM) conducted from November 2009 to April 2012 [1], [11], [12]. The IMEM project differed from the MIMOSA project by modelling the measurement aspects of data, incorporating expert information, and including measures of uncertainty.…”

Estimates of Global Bilateral Migration Flows by Gender between 1960 and 20151

“…When comparing available ow data, major problems exist stemming from the use of dierent denitions and measures employed by national statistic institutes and the availability of data over dierent time horizons (Kelly, 1987;Kupiszewska and Nowok, 2008;Nowok, Kupiszewska, and Poulain, 2006). In the European context, where ow data are more plentiful, methodologies to harmonise existing data have been developed (Abel, 2010;Beer et al, 2010;Raymer, 2007;Raymer et al, 2013;Wi±niowski et al, 2013). Each are severely limited in their application to a global setting where missing data becomes a major issue.…”

Utilising Expert Opinion to Improve the Measurement of International Migration in Europe

“…This information is gathered for use as prior inputs into a Bayesian model for harmonising and estimating international migration flows amongst the 31 countries in the European Union (EU) and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) (Raymer et al 2013).…”