Utilising Expert Opinion to Improve the Measurement of International Migration in Europe

Abstract

In this article, we first discuss the need to augment reported flows of international migration in Europe with additional knowledge gained from experts on measurement, quality and coverage. Second, we present our method for eliciting this information. Third, we describe how this information is converted into prior distributions for subsequent use in a Bayesian model for estimating migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The article concludes with an assessment of the importance of expert information and a discussion of lessons learned from the elicitation process.

Integrated Modelling of Age and Sex Patterns of European Migration

“…Here, the OD‐model (the left‐hand side of Fig. ) integrates the data on migration flows reported by sending and receiving countries, covariateinformation for missing flows, and elicited expert opinion on definitions, accuracy and undercount (Wiśniowski et al ., ). Definitions include duration‐of‐stay criteria and coverage.…”

“…These models took into account definitions of duration that are used in various countries, the relative accuracy of the data collection mechanisms, the overall undercount of migration and the coverage of migration. Expert judgements were also obtained and used to inform the measurement model (Wiśniowski et al ., ).…”

Forecasting Scottish Migration in the Context of the 2014 Constitutional Change Debate

“…It was aided by an online Multidisciplinary Assessment of Technology Centre for Healthcare (MATCH) Uncertainty Elicitation Tool (Morris et al, 2014). The questionnaire was designed following the general advice on elicitation given by Kadane and Wolfson (1998), O'Hagan (1998), and O'Hagan et al (2006, as well as recent applications of the Delphi survey for migration modelling and forecasting in Bijak and Wiśniowski (2010), Abel et al (2013), Raymer et al (2013), and Wiśniowski et al (2013).…”

“…The uncertainty of migration predictions comes from several sources. First, unlike in the case of vital events, the concepts and definitions of a migration and of a migrant are vague and do not allow for efficient measurement (Poulain et al, 2006;Kupiszewska & Nowok, 2008;Raymer et al, 2013;Wiśniowski et al, 2013). Second, while the reasons for migration can vary greatly amongst migrants, the existing theoretical explanations are too specific and too fragmented to be helpful in predicting migration.…”

Estimates of Global Bilateral Migration Flows by Gender between 1960 and 20151

“…When comparing available ow data, major problems exist stemming from the use of dierent denitions and measures employed by national statistic institutes and the availability of data over dierent time horizons (Kelly, 1987;Kupiszewska and Nowok, 2008;Nowok, Kupiszewska, and Poulain, 2006). In the European context, where ow data are more plentiful, methodologies to harmonise existing data have been developed (Abel, 2010;Beer et al, 2010;Raymer, 2007;Raymer et al, 2013;Wi±niowski et al, 2013). Each are severely limited in their application to a global setting where missing data becomes a major issue.…”