Forecasting Scottish Migration in the Context of the 2014 Constitutional Change Debate

Abstract

Migration to and from Scotland might be affected by the outcome of the 2014 Scottish referendum on the constitutional future of the United Kingdom. This potential change in migration has not been thoroughly analysed to date. The aim of this paper is thus to present a set of predictions of the possible effects of Scottish independence on internal and international migration. In particular, different sources of uncertainty of future migration flows are examined. The presented forecasts are based on the available historical data on migration flows, as well as on the opinions of a panel of experts on future migration trends. Bayesian statistical inference is used to combine different sources of uncertainty in a coherent manner. The results indicate that there is substantial uncertainty about future migration to and from Scotland, which increases with the forecast horizon. The most uncertain flow is international immigration to Scotland. Emigration from Scotland is more likely than not to increase in the near future, whereas migration between Scotland and the rest of the UK is expected to remain at similar levels to the present, irrespective of the outcome of the 2014 independence referendum.

A decade of TFR declines suggests no relationship between development and sub-replacement fertility rebounds

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Identification of translational dermatology research priorities in the U.K.: results of an electronic Delphi exercise

“…The Delphi approach is a method for structuring a group communication process to enable a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem . This technique, first reported in 1963, has been employed for over half a century to gain consensus in multiple situations, ranging from views on transformative drugs developed by the pharmaceutical industry to forecasting population migration . Likewise, the Delphi approach has been used to assist in the planning of education, including the dermatological content of the undergraduate medical curriculum .…”

“…13,14 This technique, first reported in 1963, has been employed for over half a century to gain consensus in multiple situations, ranging from views on transformative drugs developed by the pharmaceutical industry to forecasting population migration. [15][16][17] Likewise, the Delphi approach has been used to assist in the planning of education, including the dermatological content of the undergraduate medical curriculum. [18][19][20] More recently, Delphi has been utilized to prioritize research in various medical specialties, including occupational medicine, respiratory medicine and mental health.…”

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