Insights into Persistence Mechanisms of a Zoonotic Virus in Bat Colonies Using a Multispecies Metapopulation Model

Abstract

Rabies is a worldwide zoonosis resulting from Lyssavirus infection. In Europe, Eptesicus serotinus is the most frequently reported bat species infected with Lyssavirus, and thus considered to be the reservoir of European bat Lyssavirus type 1 (EBLV-1). To date, the role of other bat species in EBLV-1 epidemiology and persistence remains unknown. Here, we built an EBLV-1−transmission model based on local observations of a three-cave and four-bat species (Myotis capaccinii, Myotis myotis, Miniopterus schreibersii, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) system in the Balearic Islands, for which a 1995–2011 serological dataset indicated the continuous presence of EBLV-1. Eptesicus serotinus was never observed in the system during the 16-year follow-up and therefore was not included in the model. We used the model to explore virus persistence mechanisms and to assess the importance of each bat species in the transmission dynamics. We found that EBLV-1 could not be sustained if transmission between M. schreibersii and other bat species was eliminated, suggesting that this species serves as a regional reservoir. Global sensitivity analysis using Sobol's method revealed that following the rate of autumn−winter infectious contacts, M. schreibersii's incubation- and immune-period durations, but not the infectious period length, were the most relevant factors driving virus persistence.

Mechanisms for European BatLyssavirussubtype 1 persistence in non-synanthropic bats: insights from a modeling study

“…Movements of infected individuals provide a mechanism for maintaining the chains of transmission through the seeding of epidemics in different patches. The importance of frequent immigration of infected hosts for persistence was also recognized in other settings [43,45,54,55]. Moreover, our findings indicate that the migratory species may contribute to pathogen persistence in species encountered along the migratory path.…”

“…They are all based on a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered compartmental scheme [42], with variations to account for different immunological responses. Model 1 assumes non-lethal infection and loss of immunity (panel a of Figure 2), as done in previous modeling works [38,43]. Model 2 considers the possibility for bats to develop a lethal infection (with a given probability ), alternative to a non-infectious state followed by permanent immunity (panel b).…”

“…We set disease progression parameters for M. myotis to available estimates from previous studies [38,43]. Lacking data characterizing the disease progression of EBLV-1 in M. schreibersii, we set the average durations of the incubation and infectious period to the values estimated for M. myotis, following previous modeling work [43]. Variations of these values are then considered for sensitivity analysis.…”

Seroprevalence Dynamics of European Bat Lyssavirus Type 1 in a Multispecies Bat Colony

“…Another hypothesis could be a different lifespan of immunity in these species. Recent studies estimated the lifespan of the M. myotis immunity from EBLV-1 to be around two years [ 36 ]. In this respect, it is possible that the immunity lifespan would be shorter in P. austriacus and T. teniotis than in M. myotis .…”

Between roost contact is essential for maintenance of European bat lyssavirus type-2 in Myotis daubentonii bat reservoir: ‘The Swarming Hypothesis’

“…Studies of EBLV-1 dynamics have demonstrated seasonal and inter-annual variation in seroprevalence of between 11.1 and 40.2%, and demonstrated roost size and species richness are associated with higher seroprevalence [15][16][17] . Metapopulation models have suggested that inter-species transmission and migration behaviour have contributed to persistence of that virus 18,19 .…”