Mechanisms for European BatLyssavirussubtype 1 persistence in non-synanthropic bats: insights from a modeling study

Abstract

Background. Lyssaviruses are pathogens of bat origin of considerable zoonotic concern being the causative agent for rabies disease, however our understanding of their persistence in bat populations remains very scarce.Methods. Leveraging existing data from an extensive ecological field survey characterizing Myotis myotis and Miniopterus schreibersii bat species in the Catalonia region, we develop a data-driven spatially explicit metapopulation model to identify the mechanisms of the empirically observed persistence of European Bat Lyssavirus subtype 1 (EBLV-1), the most common lyssavirus species found in Europe. We consider different disease progressions accounting for lethal infection, immunity waning, and potential cross-species transmission when the two populations share the same refuge along the migratory path of M. schreibersii.Results. We find that EBLV-1 persistence relies on host spatial structure through the migratory nature of M. schreibersii bats, on cross-species mixing with M. myotis population, and on a disease progression leading to survival of infected animals followed by temporary immunity. The higher fragmentation along the northern portion of the migratory path is necessary to maintain EBLV-1 sustained circulation in both species, whereas persistence would not be ensured in the single colony of M. myotis. Our study provides first estimates for the EBLV-1 transmission potential in M. schreibersii bats and average duration of immunity in the host species, yielding values compatible with previous empirical observations in M. myotis bats. Conclusions.Habitats sharing and the strong spatial component of EBLV-1 transmission dynamics identified as key drivers in this ecological context may help understanding the observed spatial diffusion of the virus at a larger scale and across a diverse range of host species, through long-range migration and seeding of local populations. Our approach can be readily adapted to other zoonotic pathogens of public health concern.

Between roost contact is essential for maintenance of European bat lyssavirus type-2 in Myotis daubentonii bat reservoir: ‘The Swarming Hypothesis’

“…Studies of EBLV-1 dynamics have demonstrated seasonal and inter-annual variation in seroprevalence of between 11.1 and 40.2%, and demonstrated roost size and species richness are associated with higher seroprevalence [15][16][17] . Metapopulation models have suggested that inter-species transmission and migration behaviour have contributed to persistence of that virus 18,19 .…”