Information aggregation and belief elicitation in experimental parimutuel betting markets

Koessler, Frédéric; Noussair, Charles; Ziegelmeyer, Anthony

doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2012.02.017

Cited by 16 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…This property was replicated by Kalovcova and Ortmann (2009). In a very simple parimutuel betting system information is transferred through a process of observing betting and the importance of observing others in a parimutuel betting system context is examined by Koessler et al (2012). Ottaviani and Sørensen (2004) present a theoretical analysis for the timing of bets in parimutuel betting systems, deriving results consistent with several of these experimental findings.…”

Section: Experimental Foundations For Information Aggregationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Parimutuel-Like Mechanism for Information Aggregation: A Field Test Inside Intel

2014

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We evaluate the performance of an information aggregation mechanism (IAM) implemented inside Intel to forecast unit sales for the company. Developed, refined and tested in the laboratory using experimental methods, the IAM is constructed from institutional features that improve performance and overcome barriers to successful applications of other information aggregation methods. Its implementation at Intel provides a testbed for evaluating this new form of IAM's performance in a complex field environment. In contrast to prediction markets, which provide only a point forecast of future sales, the IAM characterizes the full distribution of participants' aggregated beliefs allowing a more detailed evaluation of its performance. We show this predictive distribution very closely matches the distribution over outcomes at short horizons while slightly underweighting low-probability realizations of unit sales at long horizons.Compared to Intel's "official forecast," the IAM forecasts perform well overall, even though they predate the official forecasts. The forecast improvements are most prominent at short forecast horizons and in direct distribution channels, where the effective aggregation of individually-held information drives the IAM to be more accurate than the official forecast over 75% of the time.

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Section: Experimental Foundations For Information Aggregationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Parimutuel-Like Mechanism for Information Aggregation: A Field Test Inside Intel

2014

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“…In both this study and in Drehmann et al (2005), contrarian betting impedes the ability of the market to aggregate information. Koessler et al (2012) introduce a design feature that greatly reduces the incidence of contrarian behavior. They construct a pari-mutuel market, in which players move in a fixed sequence, as in the last two studies.…”

Section: Parimutuel Betting Marketsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Experimental Research on Asset Pricing

Noussair

Tucker

2013

A Collection of Surveys on Market Experiments

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“…Those two studies lead to the major features of the architecture implemented in Intel and in Boxoffice Prophecy. More recently the results of Kalovcova, et al (2009) and Koessler, et al (2012) have added depth to the understanding.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Two information aggregation mechanisms for predicting the opening weekend box office revenues of films: Boxoffice Prophecy and Guess of Guesses

Court¹,

Gillen²,

McKenzie³

et al. 2017

Econ Theory

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Successful field tests were conducted on two new Information Aggregation Mechanisms (IAMs). The mechanisms collected information held as intuitions about opening weekend box office revenues for movies in Australia. Participants were film school students. One mechanism is similar to parimutuel betting that produces a probability distribution over box office amounts. Except for "art house films", the predicted distribution is indistinguishable from the actual revenues. The second mechanism is based on guesses of the guesses of others and applied when incentives for accuracy could not be used. It tested well against data and contains information not encompassed by the first mechanism.3

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Information aggregation and belief elicitation in experimental parimutuel betting markets

Cited by 16 publications

References 27 publications

A Parimutuel-Like Mechanism for Information Aggregation: A Field Test Inside Intel

A Parimutuel-Like Mechanism for Information Aggregation: A Field Test Inside Intel

Experimental Research on Asset Pricing

Two information aggregation mechanisms for predicting the opening weekend box office revenues of films: Boxoffice Prophecy and Guess of Guesses

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