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We evaluate the performance of an information aggregation mechanism (IAM) implemented inside Intel to forecast unit sales for the company. Developed, refined and tested in the laboratory using experimental methods, the IAM is constructed from institutional features that improve performance and overcome barriers to successful applications of other information aggregation methods. Its implementation at Intel provides a testbed for evaluating this new form of IAM's performance in a complex field environment. In contrast to prediction markets, which provide only a point forecast of future sales, the IAM characterizes the full distribution of participants' aggregated beliefs allowing a more detailed evaluation of its performance. We show this predictive distribution very closely matches the distribution over outcomes at short horizons while slightly underweighting low-probability realizations of unit sales at long horizons.Compared to Intel's "official forecast," the IAM forecasts perform well overall, even though they predate the official forecasts. The forecast improvements are most prominent at short forecast horizons and in direct distribution channels, where the effective aggregation of individually-held information drives the IAM to be more accurate than the official forecast over 75% of the time.

Previous experimental work demonstrates the power of classical theories of economic dynamics to accurately characterize equilibration in multiple market systems. Building on the literature, this study examines the behavior of experimental continuous double auction markets in convergence-challenging environments identified by Scarf (1960) and Hirota (1981). The experiments provide insight into two important economic questions: (a) do markets necessarily converge to a unique interior equilibrium? and (b) which model, among a set of classical specifications, most accurately characterizes observed price dynamics? We observe excess demand driven prices spiraling outwardly away from the interior equilibrium prices as predicted by the theory of disequilibrium price dynamics. We estimate a structural model establishing that partial equilibrium dynamics characterize price changes even in an unstable general equilibrium environment. We observe linkages between excess demand in one market and price changes in another market but the sign of expected price change in a market does not depend on the magnitude of excess demand in other markets unless disequilibrium is severe.