Influenza pandemics and sunspots — Easing the controversy

Ertel, Suitbert

doi:10.1007/bf01131945

Cited by 14 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Some of the earlier studies on influenza incidence dynamics also postulated interesting patterns of cyclic appearance of flu incidence, with peaks at specific points along the 11-year solar activity cycle in the 20th century [1][2][3][4]. Reports of flu pandemics, occurring around the sunspot maxima, were later scrutinized by Ertel [6]. Ertel had reanalysed data on 25/42 'claimed' pandemics during 1700-1985 (total n = 286 years) and suggested that their peaks tended to occur in years near the minima of these solar cycles but only during the 18th century.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Transyear cycles are those cycles with periods longer than 12 months, but shorter than 24 months. Various cyclic patterns have been observed, with periods of 1, 2-3, 5-6, 8·0, 10·6-11·3, 13 and 18-19 years; some of these have been associated with the influence of cyclic factors from the natural environment [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Not all of the flu incidence time series have clearly defined linearly increasing or decreasing tendencies but, even so, they could not be easily forecasted ahead by linear trend analysis only.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cyclic variations in the dynamics of flu incidence in Azerbaijan, 1976–2000

Dimitrov

Babayev

2014

Epidemiol. Infect.

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SUMMARYMulticomponent cyclicity in influenza (flu) incidence had been observed in various countries (e.g. periods T = 1, 2-3, 5-6, 8·0, 10·6-11·3, 13, 18-19 years) and its close similarity with cycles in natural environmental phenomena as meteorological factors and heliogeophysical activity (HGA) suggested. This report aimed at verifying previous results on cyclic patterns of flu incidence by exploring whether flu annual cyclicity (seasonality) and trans-year (13 to <24 months) and/or multiannual (long-term, 524 months) cycles might be present. For this purpose, a relatively long monthly flu incidence dataset consisting of absolute numbers of new cases from the Grand Baku area, Azerbaijan, for the years 1976-2000 (300 months) was analysed. The exploration of underlying chronomes or, time structures, was done by linear and nonlinear parametric regression models, autocorrelation, spectral analysis and periodogram regression analysis. We analysed temporal dynamics and described multicomponent cyclicity, determining its statistical significance. The analysis, considering the flu data specifically stratified in three distinct intervals (1976-1990, 1991-1995, 1996-2000), and also combinations thereof, indicated that the main cyclic pattern was a seasonal one, with a period of T = 12 months. Further, a number of multiannual cycles with periods T in the ranges of 26-36, 62-85 or 113-162 months were observed, i.e. average periods of 2·5, 6·1 and 11·5 years, respectively. Indeed, most of these cycles correspond to similar cyclic parameters of HGA and further analyses are warranted to investigate such relationships. In conclusion, our study revealed the presence of multicomponent cyclic dynamics in influenza incidence by using relatively long time-series of monthly data. The specific cyclic patterns of flu incidence in Azerbaijan allows further, more specific modelling and correlations with environmental factors of similar cyclicity, e.g. HGA, to be explored. These results might contribute more widely to a better understanding of influenza dynamics and its aetiology as well as to the derivation of more precise forecasted estimates for planning and prevention purposes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cyclic variations in the dynamics of flu incidence in Azerbaijan, 1976–2000

Dimitrov

Babayev

2014

Epidemiol. Infect.

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“…Chijevskiy already reported many signatures in the biosphere of an about 11-year sunspot cycle (6 -9). To his contributions and those of Vallot, Faure, and Sardou, followed up by those of Suitbert Ertel (23)(24)(25), our era of computers, satellites, genetics, inferential statistics, and chronomics added transdisciplinary mutually validating coperiodisms.…”

Section: Status Quomentioning

confidence: 98%

“…2011.geocataclysm.org/), one of the undersigned (F. Halberg) advocated an international website with a system for automatic, affordable, unobtrusive, chronobiological, and chronomic interpretation of ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (C-ABPM) for the same purpose of stroke and other severe noncommunicable disease prevention (46; see pp. [23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. He and a team of the project on the biosphere and the cosmos (BIOCOS) also presented data using C-ABPM to better understand biospheric harbingers of natural disasters and social conflicts, all sharing cycles with the human brain and heart (32).…”

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confidence: 99%

Diagnosing vascular variability anomalies, not only MESOR-hypertension

Halberg

Powell

Otsuka

et al. 2013

American Journal of Physiology-Heart and Circulatory Physiology

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Chronobiology is the study of biological rhythms. Chronomics investigates interactions with environmental cycles in a genetically coded autoresonance of the biosphere with wrangling space and terrestrial weather. Analytical global and local methods applied to human blood pressure records of around-the-clock measurements covering decades detect physiological-physical interactions, a small yet measurable response to solar and terrestrial magnetism. The chronobiological and chronomic interpretation of ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (C-ABPM) records in the light of time-specified reference values derived from healthy peers matched by sex and age identify vascular variability anomalies (VVAs) for an assessment of cardio-, cerebro-, and renovascular disease risk. Even within the conventionally accepted normal range, VVAs have been associated with a statistically significant increase in risk. Long-term C-ABPM records help to "know ourselves," serving for relief of psychological and other strain once transient VVAs are linked to the source of a load, prompting adjustment of one's lifestyle for strain reduction. Persistent circadian VVAs can be treated, sometimes by no more than a change in timing of the daily administration of antihypertensive medication. Circadian VVA assessment is an emergency worldwide, prompted in the United States by 1,000 deaths per day every day from problems related to blood pressure. While some heads of state met under United Nation and World Health Organization sponsorship to declare that noncommunicable diseases are a slow-motion disaster, a resolution has been drafted to propose C-ABPM as an added tool complementing purely physical environmental monitoring to contribute also to the understanding of social and natural as well as personal cataclysms.

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“…Previous investigations of the possible effects of solar-modulated radiation on human biology have examined the correlations of the sunspot series to time trends for incidence of stomach cancer (Zhang et al 1993), melanoma incidence (Houghton et al 1978;Dimitrov 1993), influenza epidemics (Hoyle and Wickrarmasinghe 1990;Ertel 1994), and birth rates (Randall and Moos 1993;Randall 1991). The authors used both frequency and time domain techniques to show similarities in frequency components or curve shapes between the sunspot cycle and the disease time course.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time series analysis supporting the hypothesis that enhanced cosmic radiation during germ cell formation can increase breast cancer mortality in germ cell cohorts

Juckett

Rosenberg

1997

International Journal of Biometeorology

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Techniques from cancer epidemiology and time series analysis were used to explore the hypothesis that cosmic radiation can induce germ cell changes leading to increases in future breast cancer mortality. A birth cohort time series for female breast cancer mortality was obtained using a model-independent, age-period-cohort analysis on age-specific mortality data for 1940-1990. The birth cohort series contained several oscillatory components, which were isolated and compared to the corresponding frequency components of a cosmic ray surrogate time series-Greenland ice-core 10Be concentrations. A technique, referred to as component wave-train alignment, was used to show that the breast cancer and cosmic ray oscillations were phase-locked approx. 25 years before the time of birth. This is consistent with the time of germ cell formation, which occurs during the fetal development stage of the preceding generation. Evidence is presented that the observable oscillations in the birth cohort series were residues of oscillations of much larger amplitude in the germ cell cohort, which were attenuated by the effect of the broad maternal age distribution. It is predicted that a minimum of 50% of breast cancer risk is associated with germ cell damage by cosmic radiation (priming event), which leads to the development of individuals with a higher risk of breast cancer. It is proposed that the priming event, by preceding other steps of carcinogenesis, works in concert with risk factor exposure during life. The priming event is consistent with epigenetic changes such as imprinting.

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Influenza pandemics and sunspots — Easing the controversy

Cited by 14 publications

References 5 publications

Cyclic variations in the dynamics of flu incidence in Azerbaijan, 1976–2000

Cyclic variations in the dynamics of flu incidence in Azerbaijan, 1976–2000

Diagnosing vascular variability anomalies, not only MESOR-hypertension

Time series analysis supporting the hypothesis that enhanced cosmic radiation during germ cell formation can increase breast cancer mortality in germ cell cohorts

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