Time series analysis supporting the hypothesis that enhanced cosmic radiation during germ cell formation can increase breast cancer mortality in germ cell cohorts

Abstract

Techniques from cancer epidemiology and time series analysis were used to explore the hypothesis that cosmic radiation can induce germ cell changes leading to increases in future breast cancer mortality. A birth cohort time series for female breast cancer mortality was obtained using a model-independent, age-period-cohort analysis on age-specific mortality data for 1940-1990. The birth cohort series contained several oscillatory components, which were isolated and compared to the corresponding frequency components of a cosmic ray surrogate time series-Greenland ice-core 10Be concentrations. A technique, referred to as component wave-train alignment, was used to show that the breast cancer and cosmic ray oscillations were phase-locked approx. 25 years before the time of birth. This is consistent with the time of germ cell formation, which occurs during the fetal development stage of the preceding generation. Evidence is presented that the observable oscillations in the birth cohort series were residues of oscillations of much larger amplitude in the germ cell cohort, which were attenuated by the effect of the broad maternal age distribution. It is predicted that a minimum of 50% of breast cancer risk is associated with germ cell damage by cosmic radiation (priming event), which leads to the development of individuals with a higher risk of breast cancer. It is proposed that the priming event, by preceding other steps of carcinogenesis, works in concert with risk factor exposure during life. The priming event is consistent with epigenetic changes such as imprinting.

Solar activity at birth predicted infant survival and women's fertility in historical Norway

“…Furthermore, solar activity during early development has been found to predict the onset of diseases later in life [21][22][23] that may reduce the lifespan by 1.5 years ( [24], but see [25]). Such effects are most likely stronger in men [9,24] than in women.…”

“…However, to our knowledge, such research with respect to terrestrial vertebrates is lacking (but see [18]). A few studies have focused on how periods of high solar activity (as a proxy for UVR) during gestation may adversely affect humans through fetal loss [19,20] and through the onset of diseases in adult life [21][22][23]. Furthermore, some studies have investigated how solar activity during embryonic development predicts lifespan.…”

A 17-year oscillation in cancer mortality birth cohorts on three continents – synchrony to cosmic ray modulations one generation earlier

“…To explain these observations, it was pointed out by Juckett and Rosenberg (1997) that an amplification step would be required for individuals (and populations) to respond to the low flux of background cosmic rays. Such an amplification process occurs during the expansion of germ cells in the developing fetus when the gonads are populated by germ-cell progeny, forming the reservoir of reproductive cells for the species.…”

“…In the previous work on US female breast and total cancer (Juckett and Rosenberg 1997), several oscillations were identified in the high-frequency component of the birth cohort series. The most prominent was an oscillation with a period of 17-18 years, which is explored more extensively in this current report.…”

“…Initially, several oscillation frequencies with this behavior were detected in cancer mortality from the United States (US). Age-period-cohort analysis was used to extract birth cohort time series from mortality data spanning 1950-1988(Juckett and Rosenberg 1997. Subsequently, Juckett (2007) showed that a longterm oscillation (∼70-year period) was evident in longer birth cohort series derived from cancer mortality that covered most of the twentieth century.…”