Influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on Regional Climate*

Notaro, Michael; Holman, K. D.; Zarrin, Azar; Fluck, Elody; Vavrus, Steve; Bennington, Val

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00140.1

Cited by 139 publications

(163 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…This is related to the enhanced atmospheric stability over the lake during late spring and early summer, which is often called the Bstable^Great Lakes season. It is well known that the relatively cool lake surface during this period of the year supports greater atmospheric stability (Notaro et al 2013). The Bunstable^Great Lakes season begins when lake surfaces become warmer than the surrounding land.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

et al. 2015

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Regional climate modelling represents an appealing approach to projecting Great Lakes water supplies under a changing climate. In this study, we investigate the response of the Great Lakes Basin to increasing greenhouse gas and aerosols emissions using an ensemble of sixteen climate change simulations generated by three different Regional Climate Models (RCMs): CRCM4, HadRM3 and WRFG. Annual and monthly means of simulated hydrometeorological variables that affect Great Lakes levels are first compared to observation-based estimates. The climate change signal is then assessed by computing differences between simulated future (2041-2070) and present (1971-1999) climates. Finally, an analysis of the annual minima and maxima of the Net Basin Supply (NBS), derived from the simulated NBS components, is conducted using Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Results reveal notable model differences in simulated water budget components throughout the year, especially for the lake evaporation component. These differences are reflected in the resulting NBS. Although uncertainties in observation-based estimates are quite large, our analysis indicates that all three RCMs tend to underestimate NBS in late summer and fall, which is related to biases in simulated runoff, lake evaporation, and over-lake precipitation. The climate change signal derived from the total ensemble mean indicates no change in future mean annual NBS. However, our analysis suggests an amplification of the NBS annual cycle and an intensification of the annual NBS minima in future climate. This emphasizes the need for an adaptive management of water to minimize potential negative implications associated with more severe and frequent NBS minima.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

et al. 2015

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“…In the western USA, RCM simulations have not shown large improvement over the BCSD method (Wood et al 2004), but in the Great Lakes region, the dynamic interaction of the lakes with local and regional climate requires higherresolution modeling of the system (Gula and Peltier 2012;Notaro et al 2013b;Wright et al 2012). Recent modeling studies where lake models have been coupled to RCMs are advancing our understanding of complex precipitation processes in the Great Lakes region (Notaro et al 2013a;Notaro et al 2013b;Vavrus et al 2013). Better representation of processes in the models allows projected climate changes to be physically explained, and practitioners can use that information to systematically think about climate impacts (Rood and Team 2014).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During the cool season (warm season), the lakes modify regional atmospheric circulation and cause a decrease (increase) in surface pressure (Notaro et al 2013a). Lake-induced precipitation is greatest during the autumn transition and cool season (Scott and Huff 1996) due to the relatively warm surface waters that supply heat and moisture to the atmosphere.…”

Section: Observed Meteorological Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the summertime, the relatively cold surface waters of the Great Lakes induce higher sea level pressures across the basin (Notaro et al 2013a). Higher sea level pressure, particularly over the lakes, creates more stable atmospheric conditions leading to decreased over-lake convective activity (Changnon and Jones 1972;Notaro et al 2013a;Scott and Huff 1996).…”

Section: Example 3: Summertime Lake-effect Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Higher sea level pressure, particularly over the lakes, creates more stable atmospheric conditions leading to decreased over-lake convective activity (Changnon and Jones 1972;Notaro et al 2013a;Scott and Huff 1996). For Lake Superior, summer water temperatures have warmed more quickly than regional air temperatures (Austin and Colman 2007), thereby weakening the summertime air-lake temperature gradient.…”

Section: Example 3: Summertime Lake-effect Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The role of meteorological processes in the description of uncertainty for climate change decision-making

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Downscaled climate data are available at fine spatial scales making them desirable to local climate change practitioners. However, without a description of their uncertainty, practitioners cannot know if they provide quality information. We pose that part of the foundation for the description of uncertainty is an assessment of the ability of the underlying climate model to represent the meteorological or weatherscale processes. Here, we demonstrate an assessment of precipitation processes for the Great Lakes region using the Bias Corrected and Spatially Downscaled (BCSD) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) projections. A major weakness of the underlying models is their inability to simulate the effects of the Great Lakes, which is an important issue for most global climate models. There is also uncertainty among the models in the timing of transition between dominant precipitation processes going from the warm to cool season and vice versa. In addition, warm-season convective precipitation processes very greatly among the models. From the assessment, we discuss how process-based uncertainties in the models are inherited by the downscaled projections and how bias correction increases uncertainty in cases where precipitation processes are not well represented. Implications of these findings are presented for three regional examples: lake-effect snow, the spring seasonal transition, and summertime lake-effect precipitation.

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Using a coupled lake model with WRF for dynamical downscaling

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et al. 2014

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The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to downscale a coarse reanalysis (National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project reanalysis, hereafter R2) as a proxy for a global climate model (GCM) to examine the consequences of using different methods for setting lake temperatures and ice on predicted 2 m temperature and precipitation in the Great Lakes region. A control simulation is performed where lake surface temperatures and ice coverage are interpolated from the GCM proxy. Because the R2 represents the five Great Lakes with only three grid points, ice formation is poorly represented, with large, deep lakes freezing abruptly. Unrealistic temperature gradients appear in areas where the coarse-scale fields have no inland water points nearby and lake temperatures on the finer grid are set using oceanic points from the GCM proxy. Using WRF coupled with the Freshwater Lake (FLake) model reduces errors in lake temperatures and significantly improves the timing and extent of ice coverage. Overall, WRF-FLake increases the accuracy of 2 m temperature compared to the control simulation where lake variables are interpolated from R2. However, the decreased error in FLake-simulated lake temperatures exacerbates an existing wet bias in monthly precipitation relative to the control run because the erroneously cool lake temperatures interpolated from R2 in the control run tend to suppress overactive precipitation.

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Influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on Regional Climate*

Cited by 139 publications

References 29 publications

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

The role of meteorological processes in the description of uncertainty for climate change decision-making

Using a coupled lake model with WRF for dynamical downscaling

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