Temporal and spatial characteristics of Saudi Arabian dust storms, with focus on associated air parcel trajectories, are investigated using station and gridded weather observations and remotely‐sensed aerosol optical depth (AOD). For 13 focal stations, an extensive pool of 84‐h backward trajectories is developed for dust storm days, and the trajectories are grouped into 3–5 representative clusters based on the K‐means technique and Silhouette Coefficients. Saudi Arabian dust storms are most prominent during February–June, with a mid‐winter peak along the southern coast of the Red Sea, spring peak across northern Saudi Arabia around the An Nafud Desert, and early summer peak in eastern Saudi Arabia around the Ad Dahna Desert. Based on backward trajectories, the primary local dust source is the Rub Al Khali Desert and the primary remote sources are the Saharan Desert, for western Saudi Arabia, and Iraqi Deserts, for northern and eastern Saudi Arabia. During February–April, the Mediterranean storm track is active, with passing cyclones and associated cold fronts carrying Saharan dust to Saudi Arabian stations along the northern coast of the Red Sea. Across Saudi Arabia, the highest AOD is achieved during dust storms that originate from the Rub Al Khali and Iraqi Deserts. Most stations are dominated by local dust sources (primarily Rub Al Khali), are characterized by three dominant trajectory paths, and achieve AOD values exceeding 1. In contrast, for stations receiving predominantly remote dust (particularly Saharan), 3–5 trajectory paths emerge and AOD values only reach approximately 0.6 as dust is lost during transport.

The Middle Eastern Shamal is a strong north‐northwesterly wind, capable of lifting dust from the Tigris‐Euphrates basin and transporting it to the Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula. The present study explores the poorly understood spatial and temporal variability of summer Shamal on the diurnal, seasonal, and interannual time scales, along with its influence on dust storm activity and sensitivity to global patterns of sea surface temperature using a comprehensive set of observational data. Statistics of the summer Shamal season are quantified for the first time, including its onset, termination, duration, and the occurrence of distinct break periods. Based on a multistation criteria, the mean onset and termination of the Shamal season occur on 30 May ± 16 days (1 standard deviation) and 16 August ± 22 days, respectively. Anomalously early (late) onset and termination of the Shamal season are typically associated with La Niña (El Niño) conditions, which favor (inhibit) the development of the Iranian heat low in spring and inhibit (favor) its persistence into late summer. Dust source regions in the Tigris‐Euphrates basin and Kuwait, as well as southeastward dust transport during the summer Shamal, which cannot be detected by satellite aerosol products alone, are identified, for the first time, from the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer plume motion vector products and confirmed by surface observations and lidar data. A close interrelationship has been revealed among summertime dust activity across the eastern Arabian Peninsula, frequency of Shamal days, and duration of the Shamal season on the interannual time scales.

The influence of the Laurentian Great Lakes on climate is assessed by comparing two decade-long simulations, with the lakes either included or excluded, using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model, version 4. The Great Lakes dampen the variability in near-surface air temperature across the surrounding region while reducing the amplitude of the diurnal cycle and annual cycle of air temperature. The impacts of the Great Lakes on the regional surface energy budget include an increase (decrease) in turbulent fluxes during the cold (warm) season and an increase in surface downward shortwave radiation flux during summer due to diminished atmospheric moisture and convective cloud amount. Changes in the hydrologic budget due to the presence of the Great Lakes include increases in evaporation and precipitation during October–March and decreases during May–August, along with springtime reductions in snowmelt-related runoff. Circulation responses consist of a regionwide decrease in sea level pressure in autumn–winter and an increase in summer, with enhanced ascent and descent in the two seasons, respectively. The most pronounced simulated impact of the Great Lakes on synoptic systems traversing the basin is a weakening of cold-season anticyclones.

The feedback between global vegetation greenness and surface air temperature and precipitation is assessed using remote sensing observations of monthly fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) for 1982 to 2000 with a 2.5° grid resolution. Lead/lag correlations are used to infer vegetation–climate interactions. Furthermore, a statistical method is used to quantify the efficiency of vegetation feedback on climate in the observations. This feedback analysis provides a first quantitative assessment of global vegetation feedback on climate. In northern mid- and high latitudes, vegetation variability is found to be driven predominantly by temperature; in the meantime, vegetation also exerts a strong positive feedback on temperature with the feedback accounting for over 10%–25% of the total monthly temperature variance. The strongest positive feedback occurs in the boreal regions of southern Canada/northern United States, northern Europe, and southern Siberia, where the feedback efficiency exceeds 1°C (0.1 FPAR)−1. Over most of the Tropics and subtropics (outside the equatorial rain belt), vegetation is driven primarily by precipitation. However, little vegetation feedback is found on local precipitation when averaged year-round, with the feedback explained variance usually accounting for less than 5% of the total precipitation variance. Nevertheless, in a few isolated small regions such as Northeast Brazil, East Africa, East Asia, and northern Australia, there appears to be some positive vegetation feedback on local precipitation, with the feedback efficiency over 1 cm month−1 (0.1 FPAR)−1. Further studies suggest a significant seasonal variation of the vegetation feedback in some regions. A preliminary analysis also seems to suggest an enhanced intensity of the vegetation feedback, especially on precipitation, at longer time scales and over a larger grid box area. Limitations and implications of the assessment of vegetation feedback are also discussed. The assessed vegetation feedback is shown to be valuable for the evaluation of vegetation–climate feedback in coupled climate–vegetation models.

The observed climatic controls on springtime and summertime Saudi Arabian dust activities during 1975-2012 are analyzed, leading to development of a seasonal dust prediction model. According to empirical orthogonal function analysis, dust storm frequency exhibits a dominantly homogeneous pattern across Saudi Arabia, with distinct interannual and decadal variability. The previously identified positive trend in remotely sensed aerosol optical depth since 2000 is shown to be a segment of the decadal oscillation in dust activity, according to long-duration station record. Regression and correlation analyses reveal that the interannual variability in Saudi Arabian dust storm frequency is regulated by springtime rainfall across the Arabian Peninsula and summertime Shamal wind intensity. The key drivers of Saudi Arabian dust storm variability are identified. Winter-to-spring La Niña enhances subsequent spring dust activity by decreasing rainfall across the country's primary dust source region, the Rub' al Khali Desert. A relatively cool tropical Indian Ocean favors frequent summer dust storms by producing an anomalously anticyclonic circulation over the central Arabian Peninsula, which enhances the Shamal wind. Decadal variability in Saudi Arabian dust storm frequency is associated with North African rainfall and Sahel vegetation, which regulate African dust emissions and transport to Saudi Arabia. Mediterranean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also regulate decadal dust variability, likely through their influence on Sahel rainfall and Shamal intensity. Using antecedent-accumulated rainfall over the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa, and Mediterranean SSTs, as low-frequency predictors, and tropical eastern Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean SSTs as high-frequency predictors, Saudi Arabia's seasonal dust activity is well predicted.

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The Arabian Peninsula has experienced pronounced interannual to decadal variability in dust activity, including an abrupt regime shift around 2006 from an inactive dust period during 1998-2005 to an active period during [2007][2008][2009][2010][2011][2012][2013]. Corresponding in time to the onset of this regime shift, the climate state transitioned into a combined La Niña and negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which incited a hiatus in global warming in the 2000s. Superimposed upon a long-term regional drying trend, synergistic interactions between these teleconnection modes triggered the establishment of a devastating and prolonged drought, which engulfed the Fertile Crescent, namely, Iraq and Syria, and led to crop failure and civil unrest. Dried soils and diminished vegetation cover in the Fertile Crescent, as evident through remotely sensed enhanced vegetation indices, supported greater dust generation and transport to the Arabian Peninsula in 2007-2013, as identified both in increased dust days observed at weather stations and enhanced remotely sensed aerosol optical depth. According to backward trajectory analysis of dust days on the Arabian Peninsula, increased dust lifting and atmospheric dust concentration in the Fertile Crescent during this recent, prolonged drought episode supported a greater frequency of dust events across the peninsula with associated northerly trajectories and led to the dust regime shift. These findings are particularly concerning, considering projections of warming and drying for the eastern Mediterranean region and potential collapse of the Fertile Crescent during this century.

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