Influence of oceanic heat variability on sea ice anomalies in the Nordic Seas

Schlichtholz, Pawel

doi:10.1029/2010gl045894

Cited by 78 publications

(110 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…In addition to the already mentioned Arctic sea ice or freshwater export role (Griffies and Bryan 1997;Koenigk et al 2006;Koenigk and Mikolajewicz 2009), Atlantic water temperature and salinity anomalies advection might be a significant source of predictability of the sea ice cover in this region, as suggested by Schlichtholz (2011). In the GIN Seas, the reemergence of oceanic anomalies due to the proximity of the deep water formation zone might also play an important role in sea ice cover variability and predictability (Roach et al 1993;Bitz et al 2005;Schlichtholz 2011). Finally, the correlation found by Koenigk et al (2012) between the sea ice cover in the GIN and Labrador Seas and the MOC suggests an influence of the large scale oceanic circulation as well.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interannual predictability of Arctic sea ice in a global climate model: regional contrasts and temporal evolution

et al. 2014

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The predictability of the Arctic sea ice is investigated at the interannual time scale using decadal experiments performed within the framework of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project with the CNRM-CM5.1 coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model. The predictability of summer Arctic sea ice extent is found to be weak and not to exceed 2 years. In contrast, robust prognostic potential predictability (PPP) up to several years is found for winter sea ice extent and volume. This predictability is regionally contrasted. The marginal seas in the Atlantic sector and the central Arctic show the highest potential predictability, while the marginal seas in the Pacific sector are barely predictable. The PPP is shown to decrease drastically in the more recent period. Regarding sea ice extent, this decrease is explained by a strong reduction of its natural variability in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Seas due to the quasi-disappearance of the marginal ice zone in the center of the Greenland Sea. In contrast, the decrease of predictability of sea ice volume arises from the combined effect of a reduction of its natural variability and an increase in its chaotic nature. The latter is attributed to a thinning of sea ice cover over the whole Arctic, making it more sensitive to atmospheric fluctuations. In contrast to the PPP assessment, the prediction skill as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient is found to be mostly due to external forcing. Yet, in agreement with the PPP assessment, a weak added value of the initialization is found in the Atlantic sector. Nevertheless, the trend-independent component of this skill is not statistically significant beyond the forecast range of 3 months. These contrasted findings regarding potential predictability and prediction skill arising from the initialization suggest that substantial improvements can be made in order to enhance the prediction skill.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interannual predictability of Arctic sea ice in a global climate model: regional contrasts and temporal evolution

et al. 2014

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“…However, local air temperature and wind patterns also play a discernible role in determining sea-ice conditions in the northern Barents Sea and in the areas around Svalbard (Schauer et al 2002;Abrahamsen et al 2006;Dmitrenko et al 2009). In particular, local winds can redistribute the sea ice, changing its concentration and affecting ice fluxes from the northeast via the Transpolar Drift system, leading to significant changes in the area to the north of Svalbard (Å dlandsvik and Loeng 1991;Ingvaldsen et al 2004;Schlichtholz 2011). This area is also characterized by large interannual and decal variability with respect to sea-ice extent (Vinje 1999) and the overall decline in both sea-ice concentration and sea-ice extent in the Arctic since 1979 are widely documented (e.g., Parkinson and Cavalieri 2008;Comiso et al 2008;Comiso 2012).…”

Section: Upwellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

At the rainbow’s end: high productivity fueled by winter upwelling along an Arctic shelf

et al. 2014

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Herein we document findings from a unique scientific expedition north of Svalbard in the middle of the polar night in January 2012, where we observed an ice edge north of 82°N coupled with pronounced upwelling. The area north of Svalbard has probably been ice-covered during winter in the period from approximately 1790 until the 1980s, a period during which heavy ice conditions have prevailed in the Barents Sea and Svalbard waters. However, recent winters have been characterized by midwinter open water conditions on the shelf, concomitant with northeasterly along-shelf winds in January 2012. The resulting northward Ekman transport resulted in a strong upwelling of Atlantic Water along the shelf. We suggest that a reduction in sea ice and the upwelling of nutrient-rich waters seen in the winter of 2012 created conditions similar to those that occurred during the peak of the European whaling period and that this combination of physical features was in fact the driving force behind the high primary and secondary production of diatoms and Calanus spp., which sustained the large historical stocks of bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) in Arctic waters near Spitsbergen.

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“…These are areas where the inflowing AW with temperatures T ∼ 5 • C occupies the surface layer, directly affecting the ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere interface (Sirevaag and Fer, 2009;Årthun et al, 2012;Ivanov et al, 2012). Over the last decades, observations indicate an increase of AW transport into the Arctic through the Barents Sea (e.g., Skagseth et al, 2008), which impacts the observed sea ice reduction (e.g., Schlichtholz, 2011;Årthun et al, 2012). The AW transport into the Arctic through the Fram Strait shows similar patterns and impacts (e.g., Ivanov et al, 2012;Alexeev et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat loss from the Atlantic water layer in the northern Kara Sea: causes and consequences

et al. 2014

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Abstract.A distinct, subsurface density front along the eastern St. Anna Trough in the northern Kara Sea is inferred from hydrographic observations in 1996 and 2008-2010. Direct velocity measurements show a persistent northward subsurface current (∼ 18 cm s −1 ) along the St. Anna Trough eastern flank. This sheared flow, carrying the outflow from the Barents and Kara seas to the Arctic Ocean, is also evident from shipboard observations as well as from geostrophic velocities and numerical model simulations. Although we cannot substantiate our conclusions by direct observation-based estimates of mixing rates in the area, we hypothesize that the enhanced vertical mixing along the St. Anna Trough eastern flank favors the upward heat loss from the intermediate warm Atlantic water layer. Modeling results support this hypothesis. The upward heat flux inferred from hydrographic data and model simulations is of O(30-100) W m −2 . The region of lowered sea ice thickness and concentration seen both in sea ice remote sensing observations and model simulations marks the Atlantic water pathway in the St. Anna Trough and adjacent Nansen Basin continental margin. In fact, the sea ice shows a delayed freeze-up onset during fall and a reduction in the sea ice thickness during winter. This is consistent with our results on the enhanced Atlantic water heat loss along the Atlantic water pathway in the St. Anna Trough.

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Influence of oceanic heat variability on sea ice anomalies in the Nordic Seas

Cited by 78 publications

References 23 publications

Interannual predictability of Arctic sea ice in a global climate model: regional contrasts and temporal evolution

Interannual predictability of Arctic sea ice in a global climate model: regional contrasts and temporal evolution

At the rainbow’s end: high productivity fueled by winter upwelling along an Arctic shelf

Heat loss from the Atlantic water layer in the northern Kara Sea: causes and consequences

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