Analysis of modern and historical observations demonstrates that the temperature of the intermediatedepth (150-900 m) Atlantic water (AW) of the Arctic Ocean has increased in recent decades. The AW warming has been uneven in time; a local ;18C maximum was observed in the mid-1990s, followed by an intervening minimum and an additional warming that culminated in 2007 with temperatures higher than in the 1990s by 0.248C. Relative to climatology from all data prior to 1999, the most extreme 2007 temperature anomalies of up to 18C and higher were observed in the Eurasian and Makarov Basins. The AW warming was associated with a substantial (up to 75-90 m) shoaling of the upper AW boundary in the central Arctic Ocean and weakening of the Eurasian Basin upper-ocean stratification. Taken together, these observations suggest that the changes in the Eurasian Basin facilitated greater upward transfer of AW heat to the ocean surface layer. Available limited observations and results from a 1D ocean column model support this surmised upward spread of AW heat through the Eurasian Basin halocline. Experiments with a 3D coupled ice-ocean model in turn suggest a loss of 28-35 cm of ice thickness after ;50 yr in response to the 0.5 W m 22 increase in AW ocean heat flux suggested by the 1D model. This amount of thinning is comparable to the 29 cm of ice thickness loss due to local atmospheric thermodynamic forcing estimated from observations of fast-ice thickness decline. The implication is that AW warming helped precondition the polar ice cap for the extreme ice loss observed in recent years.

This study was motivated by a strong warming signal seen in mooring‐based and oceanographic survey data collected in 2004 in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean. The source of this and earlier Arctic Ocean changes lies in interactions between polar and sub‐polar basins. Evidence suggests such changes are abrupt, or pulse‐like, taking the form of propagating anomalies that can be traced to higher‐latitudes. For example, an anomaly found in 2004 in the eastern Eurasian Basin took ∼1.5 years to propagate from the Norwegian Sea to the Fram Strait region, and additional ∼4.5–5 years to reach the Laptev Sea slope. While the causes of the observed changes will require further investigation, our conclusions are consistent with prevailing ideas suggesting the Arctic Ocean is in transition towards a new, warmer state.

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[1] A time series of summer fresh water content anomalies (FWCA) over the Laptev and East Siberian sea shelves was constructed from historical hydrographic records for the period from 1920 to 2005. Results from a multiple regression between FCWA and various atmospheric and oceanic indices show that the fresh water content on the shelves is mainly controlled by atmospheric vorticity on quasi-decadal timescales. When the vorticity of the atmosphere on the shelves is antycyclonic, approximately 500 km 3 of fresh water migrates from the eastern Siberian shelf to the Arctic Ocean through the northeastern Laptev Sea. When the vorticity of the atmosphere is cyclonic, this fresh water remains on the southern Laptev and East Siberian sea shelves. This FWCA represents approximately 35% of the total fresh water inflow provided by river discharge and local sea-ice melt, and is about ten times larger than the standard deviation of the Lena River summer long-term mean discharge. However, the large interannual and spatial variability in the fresh water content of the shelves, as well as the spatial coverage of the hydrographic data, makes it difficult to detect the long-term tendency of fresh water storage associated with climate change.

[1] Combined d 18 O/salinity data reveal a distinctive water mass generated during winter sea ice formation which is found predominantly in the coastal polynya region of the southern Laptev Sea. Export of the brine-enriched bottom water shows interannual variability in correlation with atmospheric conditions. Summer anticyclonic circulation is favoring an offshore transport of river water at the surface as well as a pronounced signal of brine-enriched waters at about 50 m water depth at the shelf break. Summer cyclonic atmospheric circulation favors onshore or an eastward, alongshore water transport, and at the shelf break the river water fraction is reduced and the pronounced brine signal is missing, while on the middle Laptev Sea shelf, brine-enriched waters are found in high proportions. Residence times of bottom and subsurface waters on the shelf may thereby vary considerably: an export of shelf waters to the Arctic Ocean halocline might be shut down or strongly reduced during ''onshore'' cyclonic atmospheric circulation, while with ''offshore'' anticyclonic atmospheric circulation, brine waters are exported and residence times may be as short as 1 year only.

High interannual variability of summer surface salinity over the Laptev and East Siberian Sea shelves derived from historical records of the 1950s–2000s is attributed to atmospheric vorticity variations. In the cyclonic regime (positive vorticity) the eastward diversion of the Laptev Sea riverine water results in a negative salinity anomaly to the east of the Lena Delta and farther to the East Siberian Sea, and a positive anomaly to the north of the Lena Delta. Anticyclonic (negative) vorticity results in negative salinity anomalies northward from the Lena Delta due to freshwater advection toward the north, and a corresponding salinity increase eastward.

[1] Summer hydrographic data show a dramatic warming of the bottom water layer over the eastern Siberian shelf coastal zone (<10 m depth), since the mid-1980s, by 2.1°C. We attribute this warming to changes in the Arctic atmosphere. The enhanced summer cyclonicity results in warmer air temperatures and a reduction in ice extent, mainly through thermodynamic melting. This leads to a lengthening of the summer open-water season and to more solar heating of the water column. The permafrost modeling indicates, however, that a significant change in the permafrost depth lags behind the imposed changes in surface temperature, and after 25 years of summer seafloor warming (as observed from 1985 to 2009), the upper boundary of permafrost deepens only by ∼1 m. Thus, the observed increase in temperature does not lead to a destabilization of methane-bearing subsea permafrost or to an increase in methane emission. The CH 4 supersaturation, recently reported from the eastern Siberian shelf, is believed to be the result of the degradation of subsea permafrost that is due to the long-lasting warming initiated by permafrost submergence about 8000 years ago rather than from those triggered by recent Arctic climate changes. A significant degradation of subsea permafrost is expected to be detectable at the beginning of the next millennium. Until that time, the simulated permafrost table shows a deepening down to ∼70 m below the seafloor that is considered to be important for the stability of the subsea permafrost and the permafrost-related gas hydrate stability zone.

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