The most up to date consensus from global climate models predicts warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes to middle latitudes during boreal winter. However, recent trends in observed NH winter surface temperatures diverge from these projections. For the last two decades, large-scale cooling trends have existed instead across large stretches of eastern North America and northern Eurasia. We argue that this unforeseen trend is probably not due to internal variability alone. Instead, evidence suggests that summer and autumn warming trends are concurrent with increases in high-latitude moisture and an increase in Eurasian snow cover, which dynamically induces large-scale wintertime cooling. Understanding this counterintuitive response to radiative warming of the climate system has the potential for improving climate predictions at seasonal and longer timescales.

This study uses an extensive dataset of monthly surface air temperature (SAT) records (including previously unutilized) from high-latitude (>60°N) meteorological land stations. Most records have been updated by very recent observations (up to December 2008). Using these data, a high-latitude warming rate of 1.36°C century−1 is documented for 1875–2008—the trend is almost 2 times stronger than the Northern Hemisphere trend (0.79°C century−1), with an accelerated warming rate in the most recent decade (1.35°C decade−1). Stronger warming in high-latitude regions is a manifestation of polar amplification (PA). Changes in SAT suggest two spatial scales of PA—hemispheric and local. A new stable statistical measure of PA linking high-latitude and hemispheric temperature anomalies via a regression relationship is proposed. For 1875–2008, this measure yields PA of ∼1.62. Local PA related to the ice–albedo feedback mechanisms is autumnal and coastal, extending several hundred kilometers inland. Heat budget estimates suggest that a recent reduction of arctic ice and anomalously high SATs cannot be explained by ice–albedo feedback mechanisms alone, and the role of large-scale mechanisms of PA of global warming should not be overlooked.

Analysis of modern and historical observations demonstrates that the temperature of the intermediatedepth (150-900 m) Atlantic water (AW) of the Arctic Ocean has increased in recent decades. The AW warming has been uneven in time; a local ;18C maximum was observed in the mid-1990s, followed by an intervening minimum and an additional warming that culminated in 2007 with temperatures higher than in the 1990s by 0.248C. Relative to climatology from all data prior to 1999, the most extreme 2007 temperature anomalies of up to 18C and higher were observed in the Eurasian and Makarov Basins. The AW warming was associated with a substantial (up to 75-90 m) shoaling of the upper AW boundary in the central Arctic Ocean and weakening of the Eurasian Basin upper-ocean stratification. Taken together, these observations suggest that the changes in the Eurasian Basin facilitated greater upward transfer of AW heat to the ocean surface layer. Available limited observations and results from a 1D ocean column model support this surmised upward spread of AW heat through the Eurasian Basin halocline. Experiments with a 3D coupled ice-ocean model in turn suggest a loss of 28-35 cm of ice thickness after ;50 yr in response to the 0.5 W m 22 increase in AW ocean heat flux suggested by the 1D model. This amount of thinning is comparable to the 29 cm of ice thickness loss due to local atmospheric thermodynamic forcing estimated from observations of fast-ice thickness decline. The implication is that AW warming helped precondition the polar ice cap for the extreme ice loss observed in recent years.

[1] Current consensus on global climate change predicts warming trends driven by anthropogenic forcing, with maximum temperature changes projected in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes during winter. Yet, global temperature trends show little warming over the most recent decade or so. For longer time periods appropriate to the assessment of trends, however, global temperatures have experienced significant warming trends for all seasons except winter, when cooling trends exist instead across large stretches of eastern North America and northern Eurasia. Hence, the most recent lapse in global warming is a seasonal phenomenon, prevalent only in boreal winter. Additionally, we show that the largest regional contributor to global temperature trends over the past two decades is land surface temperatures in the NH extratropics. Therefore, proposed mechanisms explaining the fluctuations in global annual temperatures should address this apparent seasonal asymmetry. Citation: Cohen, J. L., J. C. Furtado, M. Barlow, V. A. Alexeev, and J. E. Cherry (2012), Asymmetric seasonal temperature trends, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L04705,

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[1] Global climate models (GCM) are frequently used to understand and predict future climate change, but most GCMs do not attempt to represent permafrost dynamics and its potentially critical feedbacks on climate. In this paper, we evaluate the Community Land Model (CLM3), which is a land-surface scheme, against observations and identify potential modifications to this model that improve fidelity of permafrost and soil temperature simulations. These modifications include increasing the total soil depth by adding new layers, incorporating a surface organic layer, and modifying the numerical scheme to include unfrozen water dynamics and more realistic phase change representation. Citation: Nicolsky, D. J., V. E. Romanovsky, V. A. Alexeev, and D. M. Lawrence (2007), Improved modeling of permafrost dynamics in a GCM land-surface scheme, Geophys.

[1] A thin layer of soil used in many coupled global climate models does not resolve the heat reservoir represented by underlying ground material. Under representation of this feature leads to unrealistic simulation of temperature dynamics in the active layer and permafrost. Using the Community Land Model (CLM3) and its modifications we estimate a required thickness of soil layers to calculate temperature dynamics within certain errors. Our results show that to compute the annual cycle of temperature dynamics for cold permafrost, the soil thickness should be at least 30 meters. Decadal-to-century time scales require significantly deeper soil layers, e.g. hundreds of meters. We also tested a new geometrical configuration of the soil layer geometry which is called slab permafrost. This configuration is represented by a thick soil layer underneath the traditional resolved soil layer. The model configuration with 30 m deep resolved soil layer and a 30 to 100 m thick slab shows results that favorably compare with our benchmark model which has a fully resolved 300 m-deep soil layer. Citation: Alexeev,

Broad, long-living, ice-free areas in midwinter northeast of Svalbard between 2011 and 2014 are investigated. The formation of these persistent and reemerging anomalies is linked, hypothetically, with the increased seasonality of Arctic sea ice cover, enabling an enhanced influence of oceanic heat on sea ice and, in particular, heat transported by Atlantic Water. The ''memory'' of ice-depleted conditions in summer is transferred to the fall season through excess heat content in the upper mixed layer, which in turn transfers to midwinter via thinner and younger ice. This thinner ice is more fragile and mobile, thus facilitating the formation of polynyas and leads. When openings in ice cover form along the Atlantic Water pathway, weak density stratification at the mixed layer base supports the development of thermohaline convection, which further entrains warm and salty water from deeper layers. Convection-induced upward heat flux from the Atlantic layer retards ice formation, either keeping ice thickness low or blocking ice formation entirely. Certain stages of this chain of events have been examined in a region north of Svalbard and Franz Joseph Land, between 808 and 838N and 158 and 608E, where the top hundred meters of Atlantic inflow through the Fram Strait cools and freshens rapidly. Complementary research methods, including statistical analyses of observations and numerical modeling, are used to support the basic concept that the recently observed retreat of sea ice northeast of Svalbard in winter may be explained by a positive feedback between summer ice decay and the growing influence of oceanic heat on a seasonal time scale.