Increasing impacts of climate change upon ecosystems with increasing global mean temperature rise

Abstract

In a meta-analysis we integrate peer-reviewed studies that provide quantified estimates of future projected ecosystem changes related to quantified projected local or global climate changes. In an advance on previous analyses, we reference all studies to a common pre-industrial base-line for temperature, employing up-scaling techniques where necessary, detailing how impacts have been projected on every continent, in the oceans, and for the globe, for a wide range of ecosystem types and taxa. Dramatic and substantive projected increases of climate change impacts upon ecosystems are revealed with increasing annual global mean temperature rise above the pre-industrial mean (?Tg). Substantial negative impacts are commonly projected as ?Tg reaches and exceeds 2°C, especially in biodiversity hotspots. Compliance with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Article 2) requires that greenhouse gas concentrations be stabilized within a time frame "sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change". Unless ?Tg is constrained to below 2°C at most, results here imply that it will be difficult to achieve compliance. This underscores the need to limit greenhouse gas emissions by accelerating mitigation efforts and by protecting existing ecosystems from greenhouse-gas producing land use change processes such as deforestation

Asynchronous exposure to global warming: freshwater resources and terrestrial ecosystems

“…Previous assessments of (exposure to) impacts associated with different T g levels were compromised by a number of methodological inconsistencies, as pointed out e.g. by Lenton (2011) and Warren et al (2011). 'Reasons for concern' (Smith et al 2009) and 'burning ember' diagrams (Schneider and Mastrandrea 2005) often combine heterogeneous, partly qualitative impact estimates that lack spatial and temporal detail and do not systematically account for available climate change scenarios.…”

The impact of climate change on the growth of tropical agroforestry tree seedlings

“…The effects of climate change as a result of rising ambient temperatures and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are currently observed in a range of ecosystems and species on a global level (Warren et al 2011), including tropical central America (Walther et al 2002) where temperatures are predicted to increase between 1.5 and 5.6°C compared to current conditions (IPCC 2007). The majority (95%) of plants including agricultural crops, fruit and nut bearing trees, timber trees and service trees such as those used in agroforestry practices are characterized by the C 3 photosynthesis pathway (Ainsworth and Long 2005).…”

Valuation of livestock eco-agri-food systems: poultry, beef and dairy

“…Habitat change and climate change are considered among the most prominent threats to biodiversity worldwide (Alkemade et al, 2009;Parmesan and Yohe, 2003;Sala et al, 2000;Warren et al, 2011).…”