Increased local retention of reef coral larvae as a result of ocean warming

Figueiredo, Joana; Baird, Andrew H.; Harii, Saki; Connolly, Sean R.

doi:10.1038/nclimate2210

Cited by 101 publications

(95 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Temperature increases of 6 • C have also been observed to reduce the production of mucous, which may increase susceptibility to coral diseases (Pratte and Richardson, 2014). Dispersal of coral larva is also reduced under high temperatures, which will weaken connectivity among populations, thus potentially slowing recovery if local populations are severely affected (Figueiredo et al, 2014). Some thermally tolerant species are able to divert cellular energy into mechanisms for survival and recovery of short-term heat stress but at the expense of growth and biomineralization (Maor-Landaw et al, 2014).…”

Section: Updates To Ar5mentioning

confidence: 99%

An updated synthesis of the observed and projected impacts of climate change on the chemical, physical and biological processes in the oceans

et al. 2015

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The 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states with very high certainty that anthropogenic emissions have caused measurable changes in the physical ocean environment. These changes are summarized with special focus on those that are predicted to have the strongest, most direct effects on ocean biological processes; namely, ocean warming and associated phenomena (including stratification and sea level rise) as well as deoxygenation and ocean acidification. The biological effects of these changes are then discussed for microbes (including phytoplankton), plants, animals, warm and cold-water corals, and ecosystems. The IPCC AR5 highlighted several areas related to both the physical and biological processes that required further research. As a rapidly developing field, there have been many pertinent studies published since the cut off dates for the AR5, which have increased our understanding of the processes at work. This study undertook an extensive review of recently published literature to update the findings of the AR5 and provide a synthesized review on the main issues facing future oceans. The level of detail provided in the AR5 and subsequent work provided a basis for constructing projections of the state of ocean ecosystems in 2100 under two the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and 8.5. Finally the review highlights notable additions, clarifications and points of departure from AR5 provided by subsequent studies.

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Section: Updates To Ar5mentioning

confidence: 99%

An updated synthesis of the observed and projected impacts of climate change on the chemical, physical and biological processes in the oceans

et al. 2015

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“…Shifts in population connectivity might follow due to the dual influence of PLD on dispersal distances (O'Connor et al 2007; see also Dawson 2014), and on the durations over which larvae are exposed to high mortality while in the plankton (Rumrill 1990). Variation in species' responses to OA and warming, including altered timing and magnitudes of offspring production, and accelerated depletion of energy stores in non-feeding larvae (see, e.g., Byrne 2011, Figueiredo et al 2014) could further complicate connectivity patterns.…”

Section: Population Distributions and Connectivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Ocean acidification through the lens of ecological theory

Gaylord

Kroeker

Sunday

et al. 2015

Ecology

245

199

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Abstract. Ocean acidification, chemical changes to the carbonate system of seawater, is emerging as a key environmental challenge accompanying global warming and other humaninduced perturbations. Considerable research seeks to define the scope and character of potential outcomes from this phenomenon, but a crucial impediment persists. Ecological theory, despite its power and utility, has been only peripherally applied to the problem. Here we sketch in broad strokes several areas where fundamental principles of ecology have the capacity to generate insight into ocean acidification's consequences. We focus on conceptual models that, when considered in the context of acidification, yield explicit predictions regarding a spectrum of population-and community-level effects, from narrowing of species ranges and shifts in patterns of demographic connectivity, to modified consumer-resource relationships, to ascendance of weedy taxa and loss of species diversity. Although our coverage represents only a small fraction of the breadth of possible insights achievable from the application of theory, our hope is that this initial foray will spur expanded efforts to blend experiments with theoretical approaches. The result promises to be a deeper and more nuanced understanding of ocean acidification and the ecological changes it portends.

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“…and recent modelling studies that show a reduction in dispersal with ocean warming (Figueiredo, Baird, Harii, & Connolly, 2014;O'Connor et al, 2007). Second, only reef habitats in the euphotic zone <30 m depth were considered.…”

Section: Species Distributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Marine species distribution modelling and the effects of genetic isolation under climate change

Cacciapaglia

Woesik

2017

Journal of Biogeography

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Aim: Coral reefs are experiencing both an increasing frequency and intensity of anomalously warm ocean temperatures because of climate change. Studies show that the majority of coral populations will likely decline as temperatures continue to increase, although some previous species-distribution models predict that ubiquitous species, such as the primary reef-building coral species Porites lobata, will increase their distribution under projected climate change. These predictive models, however, assume that all individuals of a population are able to tolerate the entire range of environmental conditions within the species' geographic range. The effects of genetic isolation and local adaptation are not considered in species-distribution models that assume genetically contiguous populations. We aim to determine the effects of genetic isolation and local adaptation in species-distribution modelling of the ubiquitous species P. lobata under three climate change scenarios by comparing contiguous and isolated subpopulations.Location: Indian and Pacific Oceans. Methods:We ran a novel species-distribution model for P. lobata, segregated as five geographically isolated regions across the Indian and Pacific Oceans, and examined the species response to three climate-change scenarios (i.e., A2, A1B and B1, most recently considered as Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, 6.0, and 4.5 Wm À2 ) by the year 2100.Results: In contrast with previous homogeneous species-distribution models that predict a global expansion of P. lobata, (~5 AE 1%), we predict major losses of suitable habitat for P. lobata in four of the five regions examined, particularly in the central Pacific Ocean (>99% AE <0.1% for all climate scenarios). Indeed, when geographic and genetic isolation were considered, our predictions suggested that P.lobata would lose between 50-52 AE 4% of its habitat, depending on the climatechange scenario, mainly in the Pacific Ocean.Main conclusions: Genetic isolation will likely play a major role in the persistence of coral species under climate change, and small isolated populations may be more vulnerable to climate change than populations in large, highly connected regions.

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Increased local retention of reef coral larvae as a result of ocean warming

Cited by 101 publications

References 32 publications

An updated synthesis of the observed and projected impacts of climate change on the chemical, physical and biological processes in the oceans

An updated synthesis of the observed and projected impacts of climate change on the chemical, physical and biological processes in the oceans

Ocean acidification through the lens of ecological theory

Marine species distribution modelling and the effects of genetic isolation under climate change

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