Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world’s coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 emissions.

Many organisms have a complex life-cycle in which dispersal occurs at the propagule stage. For marine environments, there is growing evidence that high levels of recruitment back to the natal population (self-recruitment) are common in many marine organisms. For fish, swimming behavior is frequently invoked as a key mechanism allowing high self-recruitment. For organisms with weak-swimming larvae, such as many marine invertebrates, the mechanisms behind self-recruitment are less clear. Here, we assessed whether the combination of passive retention of larvae due to re-circulation processes near reefs, and the dynamics of settlement competence, can produce the high levels of self-recruitment previously estimated by population genetic studies for reef-building corals. Additionally, we investigated whether time to motility, which is more readily measurable than competence parameters, can explain the between-species variation in self-recruitment. We measured the larval competence dynamics of broadcast-spawning and brooding corals and incorporated these in a model of larval retention around reefs to estimate the potential for self-recruitment and assess its variation among species and reefs. Our results suggest that the larvae of many corals, even those with an obligate planktonic phase, develop with sufficient rapidity to allow high levels of self-recruitment, particularly for reefs with long water retention times. Time to motility explained 77-86% of the between-species variation in potential self-recruitment in scenarios with a realistic range of retention times. Among broadcast spawners, time to motility was strongly and positively correlated with egg size, i.e., broadcast spawner species with small eggs developed more rapidly and exhibited greater potential for self-recruitment. These findings suggest that, along with water retention estimates, easy-to-measure species traits, such as egg size and time to motility, may be good predictors of potential self-recruitment, and therefore may be used to characterize the spectrum of self-recruitment in corals.

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