The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

Interpreting the vulnerability of pelagic calcifiers to ocean acidification (OA) is enhanced by an understanding of their critical thresholds and how these thresholds are modified by other climate change stressors (e.g., warming). To address this need, we undertook a three-part data synthesis for pteropods, one of the calcifying zooplankton group. We conducted the first meta-analysis and threshold analysis of literature characterizing pteropod responses to OA and warming by synthetizing dataset comprising of 2,097 datapoints. Meta-analysis revealed the extent to which responses among studies conducted on differing life stages and disparate geographies could be integrated into a common analysis. The results demonstrated reduced calcification, growth, development, and survival to OA with increased magnitude of sensitivity in the early life stages, under prolonged duration, and with the concurrent exposure of OA and warming, but not species-specific sensitivity. Second, breakpoint analyses identified OA thresholds for several endpoints: dissolution (mild and severe), calcification, egg development, shell growth, and survival. Finally, consensus by a panel of pteropod experts was used to verify thresholds and assign confidence scores for five endpoints with a sufficient signal: noise ratio to develop life-stage specific, duration-dependent thresholds. The range of aragonite saturation state from 1.5-0.9 provides a risk range from early warning to lethal impacts, thus providing a rigorous basis for vulnerability assessments to guide climate change management responses, including an evaluation of the efficacy of local pollution management. In addition, meta-analyses with OA, and warming shows increased vulnerability in two pteropod processes, i.e., shell dissolution and survival, and thus pointing toward increased threshold sensitivity under combined stressor effect.

Shelled pteropods play key roles in the global carbon cycle and food webs of various ecosystems. Their thin external shell is sensitive to small changes in pH, and shell dissolution has already been observed in areas where aragonite saturation state is ~1. A decline in pteropod abundance has the potential to disrupt trophic networks and directly impact commercial fisheries. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how pteropods will be affected by global environmental change, particularly ocean acidification. In this study, physiological and molecular approaches were used to investigate the response of the Mediterranean pteropod, Heliconoides inflatus, to pH values projected for 2100 under a moderate emissions trajectory (RCP6.0). Pteropods were subjected to pH 7.9 for 3 days, and gene expression levels, calcification and respiration rates were measured relative to pH 8.1 controls. Gross calcification decreased markedly under low pH conditions, while genes potentially involved in calcification were up-regulated, reflecting the inability of pteropods to maintain calcification rates. Gene expression data imply that under low pH conditions, both metabolic processes and protein synthesis may be compromised, while genes involved in acid-base regulation were up-regulated. A large number of genes related to nervous system structure and function were also up-regulated in the low pH treatment, including a GABA receptor subunit. This observation is particularly interesting because GABA receptor disturbances, leading to altered behavior, have been documented in several other marine animals after exposure to elevated CO . The up-regulation of many genes involved in nervous system function suggests that exposure to low pH could have major effects on pteropod behavior. This study illustrates the power of combining physiological and molecular approaches. It also reveals the importance of behavioral analyses in studies aimed at understanding the impacts of low pH on marine animals.

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The 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states with very high certainty that anthropogenic emissions have caused measurable changes in the physical ocean environment. These changes are summarized with special focus on those that are predicted to have the strongest, most direct effects on ocean biological processes; namely, ocean warming and associated phenomena (including stratification and sea level rise) as well as deoxygenation and ocean acidification. The biological effects of these changes are then discussed for microbes (including phytoplankton), plants, animals, warm and cold-water corals, and ecosystems. The IPCC AR5 highlighted several areas related to both the physical and biological processes that required further research. As a rapidly developing field, there have been many pertinent studies published since the cut off dates for the AR5, which have increased our understanding of the processes at work. This study undertook an extensive review of recently published literature to update the findings of the AR5 and provide a synthesized review on the main issues facing future oceans. The level of detail provided in the AR5 and subsequent work provided a basis for constructing projections of the state of ocean ecosystems in 2100 under two the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and 8.5. Finally the review highlights notable additions, clarifications and points of departure from AR5 provided by subsequent studies.

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Abstract. In order to fully constrain paleo-carbonate systems, proxies for two out of seven parameters, plus temperature and salinity, are required. The boron isotopic composition (δ11B) of planktonic foraminifera shells is a powerful tool for reconstructing changes in past surface ocean pH. As B(OH)4− is substituted into the biogenic calcite lattice in place of CO32−, and both borate and carbonate ions are more abundant at higher pH, it was suggested early on that B ∕ Ca ratios in biogenic calcite may serve as a proxy for [CO32−]. Although several recent studies have shown that a direct connection of B ∕ Ca to carbonate system parameters may be masked by other environmental factors in the field, there is ample evidence for a mechanistic relationship between B ∕ Ca and carbonate system parameters. Here, we focus on investigating the primary relationship to develop a mechanistic understanding of boron uptake. Differentiating between the effects of pH and [CO32−] is problematic, as they co-vary closely in natural systems, so the major control on boron incorporation remains unclear. To deconvolve the effects of pH and [CO32−] and to investigate their impact on the B ∕ Ca ratio and δ11B, we conducted culture experiments with the planktonic foraminifer Orbulina universa in manipulated culture media: constant pH (8.05), but changing [CO32−] (238, 286 and 534 µmol kg−1 CO32−) and at constant [CO32−] (276 ± 19.5 µmol kg−1) and varying pH (7.7, 7.9 and 8.05). Measurements of the isotopic composition of boron and the B ∕ Ca ratio were performed simultaneously using a femtosecond laser ablation system coupled to a MC-ICP-MS (multiple-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer). Our results show that, as expected, δ11B is controlled by pH but it is also modulated by [CO32−]. On the other hand, the B ∕ Ca ratio is driven by [HCO3−], independently of pH. This suggests that B ∕ Ca ratios in foraminiferal calcite can possibly be used as a second, independent, proxy for complete paleo-carbonate system reconstructions. This is discussed in light of recent literature demonstrating that the primary relationship between B ∕ Ca and [HCO3−] can be obscured by other environmental parameters.

Anthropogenic carbon perturbation has caused decreases in seawater pH and increases in global temperatures since the start of the 20th century. The subsequent lowering of the saturation state of CaCO3 may make the secretion of skeletons more problematic for marine calcifiers. As organisms that precipitate thin aragonite shells, thecosome pteropods have been identified as being particularly vulnerable to climate change effects. Coupled with their global distribution, this makes them ideal for use as sentinel organisms. Recent studies have highlighted shell dissolution as a potential indicator of ocean acidification; however, this metric is not applicable for monitoring pH changes in supersaturated basins. In this study, the novel approach of high resolution computed tomography (CT) scanning was used to produce quantitative 3-dimensional renderings pteropod shells to assess the potential of using this method to monitor small changes in shell biometrics that may be driven by climate change drivers. An ontogenetic analysis of the shells of Cavolinia inflexa and Styliola subula collected from the Mediterranean was used to identify suitable monitoring metrics. Modern samples were then compared to historical samples of the same species, collected during the Mediterranean leg of the Thor (1910) and Dana (1921) cruises to assess whether any empirical differences could be detected. Shell densities were calculated and scanning electron microscopy was used to compare the aragonite crystal morphology. pH for the collection years was hind-cast using temperature and salinity time series with atmospheric CO2 concentrations from ice core data. Historical samples of S. subula were thicker than S. subula shells of the same size from 2012 and C. inflexa shells collected in 1910 were significantly denser than those from 2012. These results provide a baseline for future work to develop monitoring techniques for climate change in the oceans using the novel approach of high-resolution CT scanning.