Incidence of snakebites from 2007 to 2014 in the State of São Paulo, Southeast Brazil, using a Bayesian time series model

Abstract

Introduction:The monthly incidence of snakebites from 2007 to 2014 in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, was assessed. Methods: A statistical model based on the discrete double Poisson distribution was proposed, including pairs of sine and cosine functions of time to account for seasonality and autoregressive terms. Results: The analysis indicated a slight increase in the incidence of snakebites. The inclusion of two pairs of trigonometric functions seemed to be relevant in the model adjustment, given the seasonal pattern of the data. Conclusions: The snakebites occurred predominantly during the warm season, from November to April.

Incidência de acidentes ofídicos por gêneros de serpentes nos biomas brasileiros

“…Os acidentes botrópicos apresentaram-se como os mais frequentes nos acidentes ofídicos para todos os biomas. Panorama coincidente com diversos estudos em outros espaços amostrais [12][13][14] . Esta observação pode ser explicada pelo fato de espécies de serpentes do gênero Bothrops ocuparem todos os principais ecossistemas, desde florestas tropicais até pradarias e outros habitats secos 15 .…”

“…Aragon et al 13 analisaram os acidentes ofídicos no estado de São Paulo, que apresenta grande extensão de Cerrado, no período de 2007 a 2014 e encontraram tendência de incremento para os acidentes com o gênero Bothrops e Crotalus, fato este, parcialmente observado pelo presente estudo.…”

Epidemiologic prediction of snake bites in tropical south Iran: Using seasonal time series methods

“…25 These surveys have applied the seasonal autoregressive and Bayesian time series models in their analyses. 26 , 27 One of the most important abiotic factors that remarkably affects the activity of animals is ambient air temperature. 7 Snakes, as poikilothermic (or cold-blooded) vertebrates, are affected by temperature variations in surrounding air which limits their activity and numbers.…”

Phoneutrism inside a protected area in the State of São Paulo

“…Accidents caused by venomous animals represent a serious public health problem; however, cases of spider accidents are relatively poorly reported. Even in the Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, including all six editions from 2016, only two papers were published on accidents involving scorpions 1,2 and one involving snakes 3 , but no information about spiders has been reported.…”