Epidemiologic prediction of snake bites in tropical south Iran: Using seasonal time series methods

Abstract

Background: Snakebite envenomation is a vital status necessitating immediate treatment following case detection. Many cases of snakebites are recorded every year due to the suitable climatic conditions for the existence and survival of snakes in south Iran. Methods: In the present retrospective cross-sectional study, 195 snake (Reptilia: Squamata: Viperidae; Echis carinatus sochureki) bite cases referred to 10 rural health centers, two health care stations and the Haji-Abad Central Hospital of Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences (HUMS) were surveyed during 2012-2016. Seasonal time series models were applied to fit a linear model to describe and predict the monthly trend of snakebite cases. Results: Among these patients, males (70%, 136) from rural areas (79.5%, 155) were mostly recorded. The mean (± SD) age of victims was 33 (± 17.0) years old and the most common age group was 20-29 years (32%). Most snakebites took place outdoors (80%), on hands and legs (97%), and among unemployed people and farmers (61.0%). Snakebites often happened between midnight and 6 am (32%); also 51% of them occurred during summer. Most (70%) patients had pain at the bite sites. The location of being bitten (indoors or outdoors) had a significant difference with patient's sex (χ 2 = 7.764, P = 0.021). Conclusions: Time series analysis proposed a mixed seasonal autoregressive moving average, ARMA × (1, 0) (1, 1) 12 as the best process for the monthly trend of snakebite and to predict the incidence of snakebites. Local residents should be more cautious on snakebites during warm seasons.

Applying species distribution models in public health research by predicting snakebite risk using venomous snakes’ habitat suitability as an indicating factor

“…Despite considerable research into the phylogeny, taxonomy, morphology and ecology of venomous snakes in Iran 21 – 28 snakebite envenoming has received less attention 18 , 29 . In fact, snakebite is an important uninvestigated public health problem and conservation challenge in Iran 30 – 32 . Thus, more effort should be made to identify areas with high snakebite risk and reduce envenoming risk from snakes.…”

Mapping current and future risk of scorpion sting from a species with low medical concern, Mesobuthus phillipsii (Scorpiones: Buthidae) in Iran

“…Studying scorpion stings is an important priority in Iran as the country hosts high diversity of scorpions and thousands of people suffer from scorpion stings each year (Dehghani et al 2009, Nejati et al 2014, Dehghani and Arani 2015). Different aspects of scorpion sting have been previously studied in Iran (Pipelzadeh et al 2007, Jalali et al 2010, Moosavy et al 2016, Alinejad et al 2017, Ebrahimi et al 2018, Najafian et al 2020). But their distribution patterns and ecology have been less studied (Shahi et al 2015, 2016, Dehghani and Kassiri 2017, Hanafi-Bojd et al 2020).…”

Current situation of snakebites envenomation in the Neotropics: Biotechnology, a versatile tool in the production of antivenoms.

“…Tissue necrotization can trigger compartment syndrome 101 , which must be addressed by surgical treatment. This procedure causes loss of tissue and skeletal muscle function 3 . In some cases, amputations must be performed that generate permanent disabilities 102 .…”