Improved space weather observations and modeling for aviation radiation

Abstract

In recent years there has been a growing interest from the aviation community for space weather radiation forecasts tailored to the needs of the aviation industry. In 2019 several space weather centers began issuing advisories for the International Civil Aviation Organization alerting users to enhancements in the radiation environment at aviation flight levels. Due to a lack of routine observations, radiation modeling is required to specify the dose rates experienced by flight crew and passengers. While mature models exist, support for key observational inputs and further modeling advancements are needed. Observational inputs required from the ground-based neutron monitor network must be financially supported for research studies and operations to ensure real-time data is available for forecast operations and actionable end user decision making. An improved understanding of the geomagnetic field is required to reduce dose rate uncertainties in regions close to the open/closed geomagnetic field boundary, important for flights such as those between the continental US and Europe which operate in this region. Airborne radiation measurements, which are crucial for model validation and improvement, are lacking, particularly during solar energetic particle events. New measurement campaigns must be carried out to ensure progress and in situ atmospheric radiation measurements made available for real-time situational awareness. Furthermore, solar energetic particle forecasting must be improved to move aviation radiation nowcasts to forecasts in order to meet customer requirements for longer lead times for planning and mitigation.

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Radiation Advisories for the International Civil Aviation Organization

“…Finding appropriate solutions to these problems requires not just input from users, but also consideration of the known model capabilities and uncertainties (Bain et al., 2023). For example, uncertainties in the characterization of the Earth's magnetic field, particularly during periods of dynamic solar wind and during the passage of interplanetary CMEs when the geomagnetic field is disturbed, can lead to dose rate uncertainties.…”

Long‐Term Support Is Needed for Crucial Ground‐Based Sensor Networks

“…Those taking up the initiative to support ground‐based sensors span the space weather enterprise, reflecting the interdisciplinary and cross‐sector need for these data. In addition to a myriad of white papers submitted to the Heliophysics Decadal Survey (e.g., Bhatt et al., 2022; Hartinger et al., 2022) and publications (see Bain et al., 2023; Engebretson & Zesta, 2017), advisory groups such as the Space Weather Advisory Group (SWAG) and the National Academies Space Weather Roundtable, both put into place by the PROSWIFT Act itself, have taken up the cause. The SWAG, in a public meeting on 20 March 2023 (https://www.weather.gov/swag), called for a “paradigm shift,” agreeing upon a recommendation that there is a need “Provide long‐term support for operational ground‐based and airborne sensors and networks.”…”

Long-term support is needed for crucial ground-based sensor networks

“…Those taking up the initiative to support ground-based sensors span the space weather enterprise, reflecting the interdisciplinary and cross-sector need for these data. In addition to a myriad of white papers submitted to the Heliophysics Decadal Survey (e.g., Hartinger et al, and Bhatt et al) and publications (see Engebretson andZesta, 2017, andBain et al, 2023), advisory groups such as the Space Weather Advisory Group (SWAG) and the National Academies Space Weather Roundtable, both put into place by the PROSWIFT Act itself, have taken up the cause. The SWAG, in a public meeting on March 20, 2023 (https://www.weather.gov/swag), called for a "paradigm shift", agreeing upon a recommendation that there is a need "Provide long-term support for operational ground-based and airborne sensors and networks".…”