NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Radiation Advisories for the International Civil Aviation Organization

Bain, H. M.; Copeland, Kyle; Onsager, T. G.; Steenburgh, R. A.

doi:10.1029/2022sw003346

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 39 publications

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“…This can impact the normal communication between pilots, air traffic controllers, and ground stations, leading to difficulties in coordinating flight operations. Space weather events, particularly solar particle events (SPEs) and geomagnetic storms can enhance radiation levels in the upper atmosphere and at high altitudes (Bain et al, 2023;Shea & Smart, 2012). Pilots and crew members flying at high altitudes, such as those on long-haul flights or polar routes, may experience increased radiation exposure (Tezari et al, 2022;Xue, Yang, Liu, & Wang, 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forward‐Looking Study of Solar Maximum Impact in 2025: Effects of Satellite Navigation Failure on Aviation Network Operation in the Greater Bay Area, China

Xue,

Yang,

Liu

et al. 2023

Space Weather

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Satellite navigation based on the Global Navigation Satellite System can provide aircraft with more precise guidance and increase flight efficiency. However, severe space weather events can cause satellite navigation failure due to the dramatic increase in total electron content and irregularities in the ionosphere. Consequently, ground navigation has to be used to replace satellite navigation, increasing aircraft separation standards and reducing airspace capacity. As a result, numerous flights may be delayed or even canceled, incurring significant financial losses. The occurrence peak of space weather events generally coincides with the 11‐year‐cycle solar maximum, and 2025 is expected to be the upcoming solar maximum. The Greater Bay Area (GBA), located in the equatorial ionization anomaly region of China, is particularly vulnerable to space weather impacts. To explore the effects of satellite navigation failure on flight operation, we conduct this looking‐forward study and propose solution methods from the standpoint of Air Traffic Management, by simulating satellite navigation failure scenarios. Based on the projected flight volume in 2025 related to the GBA airports, simulation results show that the economic costs can be tens of millions of Euros, which is dependent on the duration of satellite navigation failure and the time interval of ground navigation‐based landing. We believe that this study can be a benchmark for evaluating the potential economic effects of forthcoming space weather on flight operations.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forward‐Looking Study of Solar Maximum Impact in 2025: Effects of Satellite Navigation Failure on Aviation Network Operation in the Greater Bay Area, China

Xue,

Yang,

Liu

et al. 2023

Space Weather

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Particle radiation environment in the heliosphere: Status, limitations, and recommendations

Guo,

Wang,

Whitman

et al. 2024

Advances in Space Research

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The automatic identification and tracking of coronal flux ropes

Wagner,

Bourgeois,

Kilpua

et al. 2024

A&A

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Constructing the relevant magnetic field lines from active region modelling data is crucial to understanding the underlying instability mechanisms that trigger the corresponding eruptions. We present a magnetic flux rope (FR) extraction tool for solar coronal magnetic field modelling data that builds upon a recent methodology. The newly developed method is then compared against its previous iteration. Furthermore, we apply the scheme to magnetic field simulations of active regions AR12473 (similar to our previous study) and AR11176. We compare the method to its predecessor and study the 3D movement of the newly extracted FRs up to heights of 200 and 300 Mm, respectively. The extraction method is based on the twist parameter $T_w$ and a variety of mathematical morphology (MM) algorithms, including the opening transform and the morphological gradient. We highlight the differences between the methods by investigating the circularity of the FRs in the plane we extract from. The simulations for the active regions are carried out with a time-dependent data-driven magnetofrictional model (TMFM). We investigate the FR trajectories by tracking their apex throughout the full simulation time span. Comparing the newly developed method to the previous extraction scheme, we demonstrate that this upgrade provides the user with more tools and less a priori assumptions about the FR shape, which in turn leads to a more accurate set of field lines. Despite some differences, both the newly extracted FR of AR12473 and the FR derived with the old iteration of the method show a similar general appearance, confirming that the two methods indeed extract the same structure. The methods differ the most in their emergence and formation stages, where the newly extracted FR deviates significantly from a perfectly circular cross-section (which was the basic assumption of the initial method). The propagation analysis yields that the erupting FR from AR12473 indeed shows stronger dynamics than the AR11176 FR and a significant deflection during its ascent through the domain. The modelling results are also verified with observations: AR12473 is dynamic and eruptive, while AR11176 only features an eruption outside of our simulation time window. We implemented a FR extraction method, incorporating mathematical morphology algorithms for 3D solar magnetic field simulations of active region FRs. This scheme was applied to AR12473 and AR11176. We find that the clearly eruptive FR of AR12473 experiences significant deflection during its rise. The AR11176 FR appears more stable, though there is still a notable deflection. This confirms that at these low coronal heights, FRs undergo significant changes in the direction of their propagation even for less dynamic cases.

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NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Radiation Advisories for the International Civil Aviation Organization

Cited by 5 publications

References 39 publications

Forward‐Looking Study of Solar Maximum Impact in 2025: Effects of Satellite Navigation Failure on Aviation Network Operation in the Greater Bay Area, China

Forward‐Looking Study of Solar Maximum Impact in 2025: Effects of Satellite Navigation Failure on Aviation Network Operation in the Greater Bay Area, China

Particle radiation environment in the heliosphere: Status, limitations, and recommendations

The automatic identification and tracking of coronal flux ropes

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