Soil erosion (SE) and climate change are closely related to environmental challenges that influence human wellbeing. However, the potential impacts of both processes in semi-arid areas are difficult to be predicted because of atmospheric variations and non-sustainable land use management. Thus, models can be employed to estimate the potential effects of different climatic scenarios on environmental and human interactions. In this research, we present a novel study where changes in soil erosion by water in the central part of Iran under current and future climate scenarios are analyzed using the Climate Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) under three Representative Concentration Pathway-RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Results showed that the estimated annual rate of SE in the study area in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2019 averaged approximately 12.8 t ha −1 y −1 . The rangeland areas registered the highest soil erosion values, especially in RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for 2070 with overall values of 4.25 t ha −1 y −1 and 4.1 t ha −1 y −1 , respectively. They were followed by agriculture fields with 1.31 t ha −1 y −1 and 1.33 t ha −1 y −1 . The lowest results were located in the residential areas with 0.61 t ha −1 y −1 and 0.63 t ha −1 y −1 in RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for 2070, respectively. In contrast, RCP4.5 showed that the total soil erosion could experience a decrease in rangelands by − 0.24 t ha −1 y −1 (2050), and − 0.18 t ha −1 y −1 (2070) or a slight increase in the other land uses. We conclude that this study provides new insights for policymakers and stakeholders to develop appropriate strategies to achieve sustainable land resources planning in semi-arid areas that could be affected by future and unforeseen climate change scenarios.Changes in land uses have consistently been described because of rapid population growth and the expansion of human settlement around the world 1-7 . These changes play important roles in shaping the landscape and altering land resources, sometimes with negative impacts 8 . Numerous scholars have concluded that unregulated land-use changes lead to environmental degradation that poses a major threat to the socioeconomic and ecological sustainability of soil as a vital resource [9][10][11] . Increasing pressure on land resources because of unsustainable cultivation, overgrazing, deforestation, climate change and drought, urbanization and poor land management practices are worsening land degradation on a global scale [12][13][14][15] . Among them, soil erosion (SE) is one of the common forms of land degradation that is related to unsustainable environmental management. Soil erosion is particularly severe in arid and semi-arid regions [15][16][17][18][19][20] .SE is a complex process resulting from the impacts of wind, precipitation, human activities and associated runoff processes that are influenced by parent material, soil properties, relief and vegetation cover 21,22 . Although