Soils in the coastal region of Syria (CRoS) are one of the most fragile components of natural ecosystems. However, they are adversely affected by water erosion processes after extreme land cover modifications such as wildfires or intensive agricultural activities. The main goal of this research was to clarify the dynamic interaction between erosion processes and different ecosystem components (inclination, land cover/land use, and rainy storms) along with the vulnerable territory of the CRoS. Experiments were carried out in five different locations using a total of 15 erosion plots. Soil loss and runoff were quantified in each experimental plot, considering different inclinations and land uses (agricultural land (AG), burnt forest (BF), forest/control plot (F)). Observed runoff and soil loss varied greatly according to both inclination and land cover after 750 mm of rainfall (26 events). In the cultivated areas, the average soil water erosion ranged between 0.14 ± 0.07 and 0.74 ± 0.33 kg/m2; in the BF plots, mean soil erosion ranged between 0.03 ± 0.01 and 0.24 ± 0.10 kg/m2. The lowest amount of erosion was recorded in the F plots where the erosion ranged between 0.1 ± 0.001 and 0.07 ± 0.03 kg/m2. Interestingly, the General Linear Model revealed that all factors (i.e., inclination, rainfall and land use) had a significant (p < 0.001) effect on the soil loss. We concluded that human activities greatly influenced soil erosion rates, being higher in the AG lands, followed by BF and F. Therefore, the current study could be very useful to policymakers and planners for proposing immediate conservation or restoration plans in a less studied area which has been shown to be vulnerable to soil erosion processes.

Accurate estimation of drought events is vital for the mitigation of their adverse consequences on water resources, agriculture and ecosystems. Machine learning algorithms are promising methods for drought prediction as they require less time, minimal inputs, and are relatively less complex than dynamic or physical models. In this study, a combination of machine learning with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is proposed for analysis of drought within a representative case study in the Tibetan Plateau, China, for the period of 1980-2019. Two timescales of 3 months (SPEI-3) and 6 months (SPEI-6) aggregation were considered. Four machine learning models of Random Forest (RF), the Extreme Gradient Boost (XGB), the Convolutional neural network (CNN) and the Long-term short memory (LSTM) were developed for the estimation of the SPEIs. Seven scenarios of various combinations of climate variables as input were adopted to build the models. The best models were XGB with scenario 5 (precipitation, average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, wind speed and relative humidity) and RF with scenario 6 (precipitation, average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and sunshine) for estimating SPEI-3. LSTM with scenario 4 (precipitation, average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, wind speed) was relatively better for SPEI-6 estimation. The best model for SPEI-6 was XGB with scenario 5 and RF with scenario 7 (all input climate variables, i.e., scenario 6 + solar radiation). Based on the NSE index, the performances of XGB and RF models are classified as good fits for scenarios 4 to 7 for both timescales. The developed models produced satisfactory results and they could be used as a rapid tool for decision making by water-managers.

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