Impacts of climate warming, cultivar shifts, and phenological dates on rice growth period length in China after correction for seasonal shift effects

Ye, Tao; Zong, Shuo; Kleidon, Axel; Yuan, Wenping; Wang, Yao; Shi, Peijun

doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02450-5

Cited by 31 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…The above results show that in addition to changes in T during the growth period have an important impact on crop phenology, AP and AS also have a greater impacts on crop phenology (He et al, 2020;Liu et al, 2021). The previous studies often only considered the impact of climate warming on crop phenology, and ignored the impact of AP and AS on crop phenology (Wang et al, 2013;Xiao et al, 2015;Zhao et al, 2015;Mo et al, 2016;Xiao et al, 2017;Ye et al, 2019). Therefore, in the future, we should fully consider the impact of different climate variables on crop phenology in order to more clearly understand the impact mechanism of climate change on crop phenology (Bai and Xiao, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

“…To some extent, adopting reasonable management measures is an effective way to deal with climate change (Wang et al, 2013;He et al, 2020). Related studies pointed out that delaying sowing dates and applying the longer-duration cultivar were management adaptations used by farmers to adapt to climate change occurring in the past few decades, and that can continue to be used (Wang et al, 2013;Tao et al, 2014a;Zhao et al, 2015;Wang et al, 2017a;Xiao et al, 2017;Xiao et al, 2019;Ye et al, 2019). With the climate warming, the potential growing season has lengthened, and the risk of low-temperature freezes and frost injury has decreased in NEC (Gong et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The impacts of climate variability and/or climate change on crop phenology have been studied by numerous researchers in China for various crops, such as maize (Tao et al, 2014a;Xiao et al, 2016;Xiao et al, 2019;Liu et al, 2021), rice (Tao et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2017a;Bai et al, 2019;Ye et al, 2019;Bai and Xiao, 2020), wheat (Wang et al, 2013;He et al, 2015;Xiao et al, 2015;Xiao et al, 2017), soybean (He et al, 2020;Gong et al, 2021), and cotton (Wang et al, 2017b;Li et al, 2021a). As climate warming accelerates the crop growth and shortens the growing period (Tao et al, 2014a;Xiao et al, 2015), previous related studies have mainly focused on the effects of increasing temperature on crop phenology (Estrella et al, 2007;.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends and Climate Response in the Phenology of Crops in Northeast China

et al. 2021

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Crop phenology is the process of crop growth and yield formation, which is largely driven by climatic conditions. It is vital to investigate the shifts in crop phenological processes in response to climate variability. Previous studies often only explored the response of a single crop phenology to climate change, and lacked comparative studies on the climate response in different crop phenology. We intend to investigate the trends in phenological change of three typical crops (i.e., maize, rice and soybean) in Northeast China (NEC) and their response to climate change during 1981–2010. Its main purpose is to reveal the differences in the sensitivity of different crop phenology to key climate factors [e.g., mean temperature (T), accumulated precipitation (AP) and accumulated sunshine hours (AS) during the crop growth period]. We found that the three crops have different phenological changes and varying ranges, and significant spatial heterogeneity in phenological changes. The results indicated that the lengths of different crop growth stages [e.g., the vegetative growth period (VGP), the reproductive growth period (RGP) and the whole growth period (WGP)] were negatively correlated with T, especially in VGP and WGP. However, the lengths of growth period of the three crops were positively correlated with AP and AS. For each 1°C increase in T, the number of days shortened in WGP (about 5 days) was the largest, and that in RGP (less than 2 days) was the smallest. Therefore, the increases in T during past 3 decades have significantly shortened VGP and WGP of three crops, but had slight and inconsistent effects on RGP. Moreover, changes in AP has slight impact on the growth periods of maize and rice, and significantly shortened RGP and WGP of soybean. Changes in AS exerted important and inconsistent effects on the phenology of three crops. This study indicated that there are significant differences in the sensitivity and response of different crop phenology to climate factors. Therefore, in evaluating the response and adaptation of crops to climate change, comparison and comprehensive analysis of multiple crops are helpful to deeply understand the impact of climate change on crop production.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends and Climate Response in the Phenology of Crops in Northeast China

et al. 2021

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“…The responses we found were in agreement with climate change responses reported by others. For example, Ye et al [71] reported that the rice growing season length was reduced by 3.1 days per 1°C increase temperature in a single rice system in China. Zhang et al [72] reported that growth duration length could be shortened by 3.0 days°C −1 from emergence to heading, and 1.1 days°C −1 from heading to maturity and 4.4 days −1 from emergence to maturity.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Satellite-Based Observations Reveal Effects of Weather Variation on Rice Phenology

2020

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Obtaining detailed data on the spatio-temporal variation in crop phenology is critical to increasing our understanding of agro-ecosystem function, such as their response to weather variation and climate change. It is challenging to collect such data over large areas through field observations. The use of satellite remote sensing data has made phenology data collection easier, although the quality and the utility of such data to understand agro-ecosystem function have not been widely studied. Here, we evaluated satellite data-based estimates of rice phenological stages in California, USA by comparing them with survey data and with predictions by a temperature-driven phenology model. We then used the satellite data-based estimates to quantify the crop phenological response to changes in weather. We used time-series of MODIS satellite data and PhenoRice, a rule-based rice phenology detection algorithm, to determine annual planting, heading and harvest dates of paddy rice in California between 2002 and 2017. At the state level, our satellite-based estimates of rice phenology were very similar to the official survey data, particularly for planting and harvest dates (RMSE = 3.8–4.0 days). Satellite based observations were also similar to predictions by the DD10 temperature-driven phenology model. We analyzed how the timing of these phenological stages varied with concurrent temperature and precipitation over this 16-year time period. We found that planting was earlier in warm springs (−1.4 days °C−1 for mean temperature between mid-April and mid-May) and later in wet years (5.3 days 100 mm-1 for total precipitation from March to April). Higher mean temperature during the pre-heading period of the growing season advanced heading by 2.9 days °C−1 and shortened duration from planting to heading by 1.9 days °C−1. The entire growing season was reduced by 3.2 days °C−1 because of the increased temperature during the rice season. Our findings confirm that satellite data can be an effective way to estimate variations in rice phenology and can provide critical information that can be used to improve understanding of agricultural responses to weather variation.

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“…Many studies have focused on climate change impacts on the yields of major annual cereal crops such as rice, wheat, corn, soybean, and maize (Luo et al, 2005;Kucharik and Serbin, 2008;Xiong et al, 2009;Jing et al, 2012;Ye et al, 2019). However, to date, comprehensive assessments of climate change impacts on perennial crops (e.g., the tea plant) are rare.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate change on inter‐annual variation in tea plant output in Zhejiang, China

Lou¹,

Sun²,

Zhao³

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Recent studies have shown that climate change is having severe impacts on production of the tea plant [Camellia sinensis (L.) Kuntze], an important woody cash crop. Quantitative production figures are necessary to provide tea stakeholders and policy makers with evidence to justify immediate action. We used data from Zhejiang Province, China, and the economic output model of four tea plant cultivars (Jiaming 1, Longjing 43, Baiye 1, and Jiukeng) in spring and the yield output model of one tea plant cultivar (Jiukeng) in summer and autumn, and analyzed the impact of climate change on tea production from 1985 to 2018. The results showed that the effects of high temperature and drought on tea production have increased significantly. Temperature was the main factor effecting the economic output of tea plants in spring. Climate change has resulted in the start date of tea buds and leaves plucking period to have become significantly earlier in spring. The risk of frost damage and economic loss, caused by frost, decreased significantly in the period of spring tea production. Among the five bud and leaf grades, the length of plucking periods for superfine, Grades 1 and 2 decreased significantly. High temperatures and drought were the main factors impacting tea production in summer and autumn, and effected the economic output of spring tea in the following year. The economic losses caused by daytime rainfall decreased significantly in spring tea production. This study has provided essential evidence that climate change has already had a significant impact on tea plant output.

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Impacts of climate warming, cultivar shifts, and phenological dates on rice growth period length in China after correction for seasonal shift effects

Cited by 31 publications

References 28 publications

Trends and Climate Response in the Phenology of Crops in Northeast China

Trends and Climate Response in the Phenology of Crops in Northeast China

Satellite-Based Observations Reveal Effects of Weather Variation on Rice Phenology

Impact of climate change on inter‐annual variation in tea plant output in Zhejiang, China

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