Trends and Climate Response in the Phenology of Crops in Northeast China

Xiao, Dengpan; Zhang, Yi; Bai, Haiyan; Tang, Jianzhao

doi:10.3389/feart.2021.811621

Cited by 14 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…The seasonal precipitation of wheat generally showed a small variation, while that of rice demonstrated a large variation, which was compensated with irrigation water. A previous study found that length of growth periods of the crops were positively correlated with accumulated precipitation and accumulated sunshine hours, which was consistent with the results of this study …”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

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Long-Term Agronomic Practices in Reducing Nitrogen and Phosphorus Loss from Intensive Croplands

Luo

Wang

et al. 2022

ACS Earth Space Chem.

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Eutrophication is increasing with intensive agricultural activities as a global environmental challenge, especially in developing countries. In order to establish the effects of long-term reducing fertilization and straw returning on nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loss in surface runoff due to intensive cultivation in the Yangtze River basin, China, we conducted a 7-year field pilot experiment with rice-wheat rotation in the fifth largest fresh water lake basin. The treatments included no fertilization (CK), conventional fertilization (Conv. Fert.), optimized fertilization (Optim. Fert.), nitrogen reduction by 30% (70%N), P reduction by 50% (50%P), and N reduction by 30% and P reduction by 50% + straw returning (70%N50%P+Straw). Results showed that the average wheat yields in reducing fertilizer treatments (70%N, 50%P, and 70%N50%P+Straw) slightly decreased by 1.21%, 5.26%, and 1.17%, respectively, compared to those with the optimized fertilizer, whereas average rice yields slightly increased by 3.71%, 0.64%, and 1.23%, respectively. However, the reducing fertilizer treatments (70%N50%P+Straw) significantly reduced the loss of N and P in surface runoff compared with Conv. Fert. and Optim. Fert. Total P and dissolved P in surface runoff water in rice seasons was predictable and modeled. The annual average N, P, and K fertilizer efficiency for rice-wheat rotation ranged in 21%–42%, 12%–38%, and 35%–53%, respectively. Considering the yields of rice and wheat along with eco-environmental benefits of reducing N and P loss in surface water, 70%N50%P+Straw treatment was the best treatment for Chaohu region. This long-term field study recommends the employment of the reduced chemical fertilizer by 30% N and 50% P in Chaohu basin for rice and wheat crops with the maximum reduction of runoff N and P and the highest fertilizer (N and P) efficiency with reasonable high crop yields. This is especially important for farmers in developing countries in achieving economical, ecological, and environmental benefits in sustainable modern agriculture to feed the increasing global populations.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

“…A previous study found that length of growth periods of the crops were positively correlated with accumulated precipitation and accumulated sunshine hours, which was consistent with the results of this study. 35 At the same time, compared with Optim. Fert.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Agronomic Practices in Reducing Nitrogen and Phosphorus Loss from Intensive Croplands

Luo

Wang

et al. 2022

ACS Earth Space Chem.

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“…As the population grows, so does the demand for food that mainly from crop production (Xia et al 2023;Hatfield and Dold 2018). Since crop growth and development are highly impacted by the climate conditions during the growing season (Rizzo et al 2022;Xiao et al 2021), climate variability and change pose considerable threats and challenges to global food security under the background of global warming (Pörtner et al 2022;Wang et al 2020;Lobell et al 2011). Generally, extreme climate is more likely to affect crop production than seasonal mean climate changes over the same period (Fu et al 2023;Zhang et al 2018;Jin et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of extreme climate stress across China’s maize harvest region in CMIP6 simulations

Xiao,

Shi,

Chen

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of climate extremes, which will negatively impact crop production. As one of the main food and feed crops, maize is also vulnerable to extreme climate events. In order to accurately and comprehensively assess the future climate risk to maize, it is urgent to project and evaluate the stress of extreme climate related maize production under future climate scenarios. In this study, we comprehensively evaluated the spatio-temporal changes in the frequency and intensity of six extreme climate indices (ECIs) across China’s maize harvest region by using a multi-model ensemble method, and examined the capability of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to capture these variations. We found that the Independence Weight Mean (IWM) ensemble results calculated by multiple Global Change Models (GCMs) with bias correction could better reproduce each ECI. The results indicated that heat stress for maize showed consistent increase trends under four future climate scenarios in the 21st century. The intensity and frequency of the three extreme temperature indices in 2080s were significantly higher than these in 2040s, and in the high emission scenario were significantly higher than these in the low emission scenario. The three extreme precipitation indices changed slightly in the future, but the spatial changes were relatively prominent. Overall, the temporal characteristics and trends of extreme temperature events were consistent, while the spatial heterogeneity of extreme precipitation events was more significant.

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“…Zhang et al (2019) and Lv et al (2015) analyzed the fluctuation characteristics and future trends of grain yield in crops. Other studies have investigated the temporal and spatial variation of crop phenology and its response to climate change (Lin et al, 2017;Xiao et al, 2021) and even the impact of crop phenology on crop growth (Wang et al, 2020). However, few studies have focused on crop phenology to analyze the comprehensive effects of climate change and the phenological response on agricultural production.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of climate change and phenological variation on agricultural production and its risk pattern in the black soil area of northeast China

et al. 2023

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The black soil region of northeast China is a vital food base and is one of the most sensitive regions to climate change in China. However, the characteristics of the crop phenological response and the integrated impact of climate and phenological changes on agricultural productivity in the region under the background of climate change are not clear. The future agricultural risk assessment has been insufficiently quantified and the existing risk level formulation lacks a sound basis. Based on remote sensing products, climate data, and model simulations, this study integrated a logistic function fitting curvature derivation, multiple linear regression, and scenario simulation to investigate crop phenology dynamics and their climate response characteristics in the black soil region. Additionally, the compound effects of climate and phenology changes on agricultural production and possible future risks were identified. The key results were as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2017, 29.76% of the black soil region of northeast China experienced a significant delay in the start of the growing season (SOS) and 16.71% of the total area displayed a trend for the end of the growing season (EOS) to arrive earlier. The time lagged effects of the SOS in terms of the crop response to climatic factors were site and climatic parameter dependent. The influence of temperature was widespread and its effect had a longer lag time in general; (2) Both climatic and phenological changes have had a significant effect on the inter-annual variability of crop production, and the predictive ability of both increased by 70.23%, while the predictive area expanded by 85.04%, as compared to that of climate change in the same period of the growing season; (3) Under the RCP8.5 scenario, there was a risk that the future crop yield would decrease in the north and

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Trends and Climate Response in the Phenology of Crops in Northeast China

Cited by 14 publications

References 46 publications

Long-Term Agronomic Practices in Reducing Nitrogen and Phosphorus Loss from Intensive Croplands

Long-Term Agronomic Practices in Reducing Nitrogen and Phosphorus Loss from Intensive Croplands

Assessment of extreme climate stress across China’s maize harvest region in CMIP6 simulations

The effects of climate change and phenological variation on agricultural production and its risk pattern in the black soil area of northeast China

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