Impact of climate change on inter‐annual variation in tea plant output in Zhejiang, China

Abstract

Recent studies have shown that climate change is having severe impacts on production of the tea plant [Camellia sinensis (L.) Kuntze], an important woody cash crop. Quantitative production figures are necessary to provide tea stakeholders and policy makers with evidence to justify immediate action. We used data from Zhejiang Province, China, and the economic output model of four tea plant cultivars (Jiaming 1, Longjing 43, Baiye 1, and Jiukeng) in spring and the yield output model of one tea plant cultivar (Jiukeng) in summer and autumn, and analyzed the impact of climate change on tea production from 1985 to 2018. The results showed that the effects of high temperature and drought on tea production have increased significantly. Temperature was the main factor effecting the economic output of tea plants in spring. Climate change has resulted in the start date of tea buds and leaves plucking period to have become significantly earlier in spring. The risk of frost damage and economic loss, caused by frost, decreased significantly in the period of spring tea production. Among the five bud and leaf grades, the length of plucking periods for superfine, Grades 1 and 2 decreased significantly. High temperatures and drought were the main factors impacting tea production in summer and autumn, and effected the economic output of spring tea in the following year. The economic losses caused by daytime rainfall decreased significantly in spring tea production. This study has provided essential evidence that climate change has already had a significant impact on tea plant output.

Influence of multi-timescale precipitation indices on primary tea production in Baoshan, Yunnan, China

“…For example, spring frost can damage tea buds and decrease their economic value [14][15][16], and the resulting economic losses are related to the extent and severity of frost that occurs during the tea bud and leaf plucking period. Springtime temperature changes will directly affect the speed of shoot growth and the determination of tea picking time [14], resulting in large differences in raw tea prices 8 , sometimes exceeding 1000 Chinese yuan/kg [17].…”

“…As mentioned above, the response of primary tea production to temperature has received considerable attention [2,3,6,[9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17], resulting in abundant and influential conclusions. By comparison, the impact of precipitation on tea production is less well understood, with very few studies exploring the impact of multitimescale precipitation indices (including extreme precipitation) on tea production, or investigating the effect of precipitation on primary processing of different types of tea 9,10 .…”

“…In Sri Lanka, it is predicted that tea yield would increase with increasing rainfall across all elevations [34], while other researchers insist that tea production may be negatively affected by predicted long-term increases in rainfall in Sri Lanka [13]. In China, daytime rainfall in spring can decrease economic outputs of tea in Zhejiang tea area [17]. In Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, China, tea yield is up to 50% higher during the summer monsoon than during the spring drought [24].…”

“…In Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, China, tea yield is up to 50% higher during the summer monsoon than during the spring drought [24]. 7 Although there are many complex influencing factors that can affect the pricing of raw tea, such as quality, variety, producing area, meteorological factors change, cost of production factors, supply and demand, changes in consumer preferences, policies, market mechanism, etc [14,[17][18][19][20][21][22][23], it is undeniable that pricing according to tea quality is still the basic requirement of the market price mechanism, and raw tea price is always significantly associated with the biochemical parameters and various quality attributes [21,14]. 8 The spring tea price depends on the time of tea production and the grade of tea buds, and earlier plucking time usually results in higher price.…”

“…8 The spring tea price depends on the time of tea production and the grade of tea buds, and earlier plucking time usually results in higher price. For example, the price of tea produced by superfine tea buds and leaves of the special early-onset cultivars is more than 1000 yuan per kilo higher than that produced by superfine tea buds and leaves of the late-onset cultivars [17]. 9 The primary processing of black tea includes withering, rolling, fermentation, and drying.…”