Impacts of Climate and Land Use/Cover Change on Streamflow Using SWAT and a Separation Method for the Xiying River Basin in Northwestern China

Guo, Jing; Su, Xiaoling; Singh, Vijay P.; Jin, Jiming

doi:10.3390/w8050192

Cited by 43 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Another possible direction of this “circular effect” is that the apparent change in ET (accordingly, soil moisture) might lead to change in temperature, vapor pressure deficit, and precipitation patterns. Assuming that the difference in water balance resulting from the aforementioned circular phenomenon is significantly smaller than the total difference caused by land use change alone, use of “constant climate” can be considered justified and accordingly adopted by many other studies with similar objective (e.g., Guo, Su, Singh, & Jin, ; Li, Zhang, Vaze, & Wang, ; Li, Zhang, & Xu, ; Li et al, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic response to future land use change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin by the end of 21st century

Rajib

Merwade

2017

Hydrological Processes

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This study demonstrates the spatial variation in hydrologic processes across the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) by the end of 21st century, by ingesting FOREcasting Scenarios (FORE‐SCE) of Land‐use Change projections into a physics‐based hydrologic model—Soil and Water Assessment Tool. The model is created for UMRB (440,000 km2), using the National Landcover Database of year 2001 and climate data of 1991–2010. Considering 1991–2010 as the baseline reference period, FORE‐SCE projections of year 2091 under three scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) are separately assimilated into the calibrated model, whereas climate input is kept the same as in the baseline. Modeling results suggest an increase of 0.5% and 3.5% in the average annual streamflow at the basin outlet (Grafton, Illinois) during 2081–2100, respectively, for A1B and A2, whereas for B1, streamflow would decrease by 1.5%. Under the “worst case” A2 scenario, 6% and 133% increase, respectively, in agricultural and urban areas with 30% depletion of forest and grassland would result into 70% increase in surface runoff, 20% decrease in soil moisture, and 4% decrease in evapotranspiration in certain parts of the basin. Conversion of cropland, forest, or grassland to perennial hay/pasture areas would lower surface runoff by 25% especially in the central region, whereas persistent forest cover in the northern region would cause up to 7% increase in evapotranspiration. The ecosystem in the lower half of UMRB is likely to become adverse, as dictated by a composite water–energy balance indicator. Future land use change extents and resultant hydrologic responses are found significantly different under A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios, which resonates the need for multi‐scenario ensemble assessments towards characterizing a probable future. The spatial variation of hydrologic processes as shown here helps to identify potential “hot spots,” giving ways to adopt more effective policy alternatives at regional level.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic response to future land use change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin by the end of 21st century

Rajib

Merwade

2017

Hydrological Processes

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“…This study used the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test [62,63] accumulative anomaly method [64], SCRCQ method [16,23], SWAT hydrological model [65][66][67] and Pearson correlation analysis [68]. The first two methods were used to identify any abrupt changes in the annual FDV from 1960 to 2011 because the combination of the two methods facilitated the accurate and comprehensive identification of break points [23,51].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For this study, a semi-distributed hydrological model, the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model) [65], which has been demonstrated as appropriate for numerous worldwide watersheds [66,67], was used to evaluate the effects of climate change and LUCC on hydrological processes. The hydrological components simulated by the SWAT model include evapotranspiration (ET), surface runoff, percolation, lateral flow, groundwater flow, transmission losses, etc.…”

Section: Soil and Water Assessment Tool (Swat Model)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative Detection and Attribution of Runoff Variations in the Aksu River Basin

Meng

Huang

et al. 2016

Water

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Abstract:Since the flow variations of Aksu River are strongly influenced by climate change and human activities which threat the local ecosystem and sustainable development, it is necessary to quantify the impact degree of the driving factors. Therefore, this study aims to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on the variability of runoff in the Aksu River Basin. The Mann-Kendall trend test and accumulative anomaly method were used to detect the break points of the flow difference value (FDV) between the upstream and downstream flume stations. The improved slope change ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ) method and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were applied to decouple the contribution of each driving factor to the FDV variations. Furthermore, a Pearson Correlation Analysis was performed to show the relationships among the driving factors and the FDV. The time series prior to the year (1988) of break point was considered as the baseline period. Based on the annual precipitation and the potential evapotranspiration (PET), the relative impacts of precipitation, PET and human activities on FDV variations as determined by the SCRCQ method were 77.35%,´0.98% and 23.63%, respectively. In addition, the SWAT model indicated that climate factors and human activities were responsible for 92.28% and 7.72% of the variability, respectively. Thus, climate change and human activities showed a similar scale of impact on FDV changes.

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“…Empirically based approaches use long-term historical data to correlate land use changes with corresponding streamflow data (Adnan and Atkinson, 2011;Rientjes et al, 2011;Mwangi et al, 2016) or paired catchment studies (Bosch and Hewlett, 1982;Brown et al, 2005), whereas process-based approaches use physically based hydrological models in which the impact of land use changes is determined by varying the land use/cover settings (Khoi and Suetsugi, 2014;Guo et al, 2016;Zhang et al, 2016;Marhaento et al, 2017;Wangpimool et al, 2017). Process-based approaches have the drawback of requiring more data to be input and having high uncertainty in parameter estimation (Xu et al, 2014;Zhang et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Minimum forest cover required for sustainable water flow regulation of a watershed: a case study in Jambi Province, Indonesia

Tarigan

Wiegand²,

Sunarti³

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In many tropical regions, the rapid expansion of monoculture plantations has led to a sharp decline in forest cover, potentially degrading the ability of watersheds to regulate water flow. Therefore, regional planners need to determine the minimum proportion of forest cover that is required to support adequate ecosystem services in these watersheds. However, to date, there has been little research on this issue, particularly in tropical areas where monoculture plantations are expanding at an alarming rate. Therefore, in this study, we investigated the influence of forest cover and oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) and rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) plantations on the partitioning of rainfall into direct runoff and subsurface flow in a humid, tropical watershed in Jambi Province, Indonesia. To do this, we simulated streamflow with a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and observed several watersheds to derive the direct runoff coefficient (C) and baseflow index (BFI). The model had a strong performance, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.80-0.88 (calibration) and 0.80-0.85 (validation) and percent bias values of −2.9-1.2 (calibration) and 7.0-11.9 (validation). We found that the percentage of forest cover in a watershed was significantly negatively correlated with C and significantly positively correlated with BFI, whereas the rubber and oil palm plantation cover showed the opposite pattern. Our findings also suggested that at least 30 % of the forest cover was required in the study area for sustainable ecosystem services. This study provides new adjusted crop parameter values for monoculture plantations, particularly those that control surface runoff and baseflow processes, and it also describes the quantitative association between forest cover and flow indicators in a watershed, which will help regional planners in determining the minimum proportion of forest and the maximum proportion of plantation to ensure that a watershed can provide adequate ecosystem services.

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Impacts of Climate and Land Use/Cover Change on Streamflow Using SWAT and a Separation Method for the Xiying River Basin in Northwestern China

Cited by 43 publications

References 49 publications

Hydrologic response to future land use change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin by the end of 21st century

Hydrologic response to future land use change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin by the end of 21st century

Quantitative Detection and Attribution of Runoff Variations in the Aksu River Basin

Minimum forest cover required for sustainable water flow regulation of a watershed: a case study in Jambi Province, Indonesia

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