Quantitative Detection and Attribution of Runoff Variations in the Aksu River Basin

Meng, Fanhao; Li, Shipeng; Huang, Yanyan; Luo, Min; Bao, Anming; Hou, Dawei

doi:10.3390/w8080338

Cited by 17 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…The role of climate change is found to be much greater than land use change [50]. Meng et al used the SWAT model to study the Aksu River in the northwest inland area and found that climate factors and human activities were responsible for 92.28% and 7.72% of the variability, respectively [61]. These are consistent with the results of this paper.…”

Section: Contribution Of Land Use and Climate Change To Runoff Variationsupporting

confidence: 88%

Land Use and Climate Change Effects on Surface Runoff Variations in the Upper Heihe River Basin

Shang

Jiang

Jia

et al. 2019

Water

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The runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe River has been continuously abundant for more than a decade, and this has not happened previously in history. Quantitative analysis of runoff variation and its influencing factors are of great significance for the ecological protection of the basin. In this paper, the soil and water assessment tool model was used to simulate runoff in the study area, and the method of scenario simulation was used to quantitatively analyze the runoff response with respect to land use and climate change. According to the abruptness of the runoff sequence, the years before 2004 are categorized as belonging to the reference period, and after 2004 is categorized as the interference period. According to the analysis, compared with the reference period, the contribution rate of climate change is 87.15%, while the contribution rate of land use change is only 12.85%. The climate change scenario simulation analysis shows that the change in runoff is positively correlated with the change in precipitation. The relationship with the change in temperature is more complicated, but the influence of precipitation change is stronger than the change in temperature. According to the land use scenario simulation analysis, under the economic development scenario, the runoff decreased, whereas under the historical trend and ecological protection scenario, the runoff increased. Additionally, the runoff increased more under the ecological protection scenario.

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Section: Contribution Of Land Use and Climate Change To Runoff Variationsupporting

confidence: 88%

Land Use and Climate Change Effects on Surface Runoff Variations in the Upper Heihe River Basin

Shang

Jiang

Jia

et al. 2019

Water

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“…The SWAT model is a physically distributed hydrological model that has been widely used to assess the impacts of climate change and human activities on water [37,45]. To simplify the watershed and facilitate calculation, the study area was divided into 22 subbasins with 271 hydrologic response units (HRUs) based on land use, soil type, and slope.…”

Section: Hydrological Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, extreme precipitation events may be the main cause of extreme flow, especially in Summer. Therefore, we performed a comparison of the probability distributions to assess the performance of the GCMs in simulating precipitation events [36,37]. For each GCM runs, extreme precipitation sequence were extracted based daily precipitation series, and when the precipitation bigger than 0.1 mm/day were selected as a wet day [35].…”

Section: Downscaling Of Future Climate Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Liu et al [35] used both lumped and distributed hydrological models to assess the climate change impact on hydrology under emission scenarios (SERS) of the IPCC through 2050 s. Ma et al [36] analyzed the response of snowmelt runoff to future climate in the Kaidu watershed by coupling GCM outputs with the snowmelt runoff model (SRM). Meng et al [37] found that climatologically parameters are contributing to 92% of the runoff variability, and human activity was responsible for 7.72% of the runoff change in the Aksu watershed. Liu et al [38,39] coupled an average ensemble of 18 available GCMs with a well-calibrated Mike System Hydrological European (MIKE SHE) model and simulated hydrological processes under future climate change scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Flows Under IPCC RCP Scenarios in the Mountainous Kaidu Watershed, Tarim River Basin

Huang

et al. 2020

Sustainability

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In the 21st century, heavier rainfall events and warmer temperatures in mountainous regions have significant impacts on hydrological processes and the occurrence of flood/drought extremes. Long-term modeling and peak flow detection of streamflow series are crucial in understanding the behavior of flood and drought. This study was conducted to analyze the impacts of future climate change on extreme flows in the Kaidu River Basin, northwestern China. The soil water assessment tool (SWAT) was used for hydrological modeling. The projected future precipitation and temperature under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were downscaled and used to drive the validated SWAT model. A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was employed to assess the probability distribution of flood events. The modeling results showed that the simulated discharge well matched the observed ones both in the calibration and validation periods. Comparing with the historical period, the ensemble with 15 general circulation models (GCMs) showed that the annual precipitation will increase by 7.9-16.1% in the future, and extreme precipitation events will increase in winter months. Future temperature will increase from 0.42 • C/10 a to 0.70 • C/10 a. However, with respect to the hydrological response to climate change, annual mean runoff will decrease by 21.5-40.0% under the mean conditions of the four RCP scenarios. A reduction in streamflow will occur in winter, while significantly increased discharge will occur from April to May. In addition, designed floods for return periods of five, 10 and 20 years in the future, as predicted by the GEV distribution, will decrease by 3-20% over the entire Kaidu watershed compared to those in the historical period. The results will be used to help local water resource management with hazard warning and flood control.

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“…Recently, many studies [6,[10][11][12][13][14][15] on current and future water resources in Central Asia have been conducted to gain a deeper understanding of the complex hydrological processes of the region. These studies also intend to gauge, through both statistical analysis on historical data and hydrological modeling, how the area's water resources might change in the coming years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Objective Calibration of a Distributed Hydrological Model in a Highly Glacierized Watershed in Central Asia

Fang

Jian

Chen

2019

Water

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Understanding glacio-hydrological processes is crucial to water resources management, especially under increasing global warming. However, data scarcity makes it challenging to quantify the contribution of glacial melt to streamflow in highly glacierized catchments such as those in the Tienshan Mountains. This study aims to investigate the glacio-hydrological processes in the SaryDjaz-Kumaric River (SDKR) basin in Central Asia by integrating a degree-day glacier melt algorithm into the macro-scale hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. To deal with data scarcity in the alpine area, a multi-objective sensitivity analysis and a multi-objective calibration procedure were used to take advantage of all aspects of streamflow. Three objective functions, i.e., the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of logarithms (LogNS), the water balance index (WBI), and the mean absolute relative difference (MARD), were considered. Results show that glacier and snow melt-related parameters are generally sensitive to all three objective functions. Compared to the original SWAT model, simulations with a glacier module match fairly well to the observed streamflow, with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) and R2 approaching 0.82 and an absolute percentage bias less than 1%. Glacier melt contribution to runoff is 30–48% during the simulation period. The approach of combining multi-objective sensitivity analysis and optimization is an efficient way to identify important hydrological processes and recharge characteristics in highly glacierized catchments.

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Quantitative Detection and Attribution of Runoff Variations in the Aksu River Basin

Cited by 17 publications

References 66 publications

Land Use and Climate Change Effects on Surface Runoff Variations in the Upper Heihe River Basin

Land Use and Climate Change Effects on Surface Runoff Variations in the Upper Heihe River Basin

Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Flows Under IPCC RCP Scenarios in the Mountainous Kaidu Watershed, Tarim River Basin

Multi-Objective Calibration of a Distributed Hydrological Model in a Highly Glacierized Watershed in Central Asia

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