Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Kilombero Catchment in Tanzania

Näschen, Kristian; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Leemhuis, Constanze; Seregina, Larisa; Linden, Roderick van der

doi:10.3390/w11040859

Cited by 38 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Nevertheless, this bimodal pattern only applies for the northern parts of Tanzania, whereas the south-western parts of Tanzania are characterized by a unimodal rainfall distribution and therefore one rainy season ("Msimu") [41]. However, there are huge interannual, intraannual, and also spatial variabilities in the distribution of precipitation for the Kilombero Catchment recorded [2,33,42]. This high variability can be attributed to the manifold factors influencing the local climate, such as remote forcings (e.g., Walker Circulation, Indian Ocean Dipole), regional circulations (e.g., Tropical Easterly Jet), but also local geographic factors (e.g., windward and leeward effects) [43].…”

Section: Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For future climate scenarios GCM-RCM (Global Climate Models-Regional Climate Models) model combinations from CORDEX Africa were bias-corrected for temperature and precipitation. A more detailed description on the procedure can be found in Näschen et al 2019 [33]. Two of these GCM-RCM scenario data sets were chosen for this study in order to represent a span of wet and dry scenarios covering increasing and decreasing annual precipitation amounts (Tables 3 and 4).…”

Section: Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…All LULC scenario analyses with the SWAT model were performed with identical climate data to decouple the climate influence on water resources from the influence of LULCC. The MIROC5-RCA4_v1 model ( Table 3) Tables 3 and 4) climatic conditions for the period of 2010-2060 [33]. The "dry model" is run with the RCP 4.5 scenario and the "wet model" with the RCP 8.5 scenario to account for uncertainties in climatic conditions by choosing the driest and wettest model already tested and bias-corrected for the region in a previous study [33].…”

Section: Land Use and Land Cover Change (Lulcc) Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is necessary to add that changes in management practices are not included in these LULCC, but several practices, like the establishment of year-round irrigation schedules, will further affect water resources [85,86]. Furthermore, the uncertainty of the climate change signal, represented by the huge span in the GCM-RCM model runs [33] (Figure 11), is much higher than in LULCC scenarios. While climate change models show diverging trends of more dry or more wet conditions and changes in the seasonality, the impact of conversion from natural LULC into agricultural utilized fields is more explicit [3,4,81], although it still depends on the specific crops grown.…”

Section: Land Use/cover and Climate Change Impact Assessment On Watermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, the SWAT model was utilized to simulate the impact of the different LULC setups on water resources. Subsequently, the selected Global Climate Model-Regional Climate Model (GCM-RCM) developed for a previous study [33] was integrated to estimate the combined effect of LULCC and climate change. Results show huge deviations in water balance components on a subcatchment scale and that especially high flow patterns vary among the different LULC scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios

et al. 2019

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Many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are prone to land use and land cover change (LULCC). In many cases, natural systems are converted into agricultural land to feed the growing population. However, despite climate change being a major focus nowadays, the impacts of these conversions on water resources, which are essential for agricultural production, is still often neglected, jeopardizing the sustainability of the socio-ecological system. This study investigates historic land use/land cover (LULC) patterns as well as potential future LULCC and its effect on water quantities in a complex tropical catchment in Tanzania. It then compares the results using two climate change scenarios. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is used to analyze and to project LULC patterns until 2030 and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate the water balance under various LULC conditions. Results show decreasing low flows by 6-8% for the LULC scenarios, whereas high flows increase by up to 84% for the combined LULC and climate change scenarios. The effect of climate change is stronger compared to the effect of LULCC, but also contains higher uncertainties. The effects of LULCC are more distinct, although crop specific effects show diverging effects on water balance components. This study develops a methodology for quantifying the impact of land use and climate change and therefore contributes to the sustainable management of the investigated catchment, as it shows the impact of environmental change on hydrological extremes (low flow and floods) and determines hot spots, which are critical for environmental development.Sustainability 2019, 11, 7083 2 of 28 increased agricultural outputs such as food and timber production [9,13]. Several water-related targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are at risk due to land conversions into arable land, especially with regard to SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) and SDG 15 (Life on Land) [13,14].Several studies investigated the impact of LULCC and climate change on water resources separately [3,15] or simultaneously [16,17]. The results of the studies differ due to several reasons e.g., the type of LULCC, the regional focus, or the time period and model chosen to simulate climate change. However, many studies indicate an increased exposure to hydro-climatic extremes in Eastern Africa [18][19][20][21]. This study exemplarily analyzes LULCC compared to climate change in the Kilombero Catchment in Tanzania and how these affect water resources. The catchment itself is subject to aforementioned LULCC [1,13] and pressure on land resources in the valley is fostered by government plans to implement the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) [22], which is accompanied by a growing population and migration of pastoralists into the valley [23]. SAGCOT follows a green growth approach covering three development clusters in Kilombero, Ihemi, and Mbarali, comprising one third of the mainland of Tanzania [1,24,25]. On the one hand the key clusters are charac...

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Section: Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Land Use and Land Cover Change (Lulcc) Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Land Use/cover and Climate Change Impact Assessment On Watermentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios

et al. 2019

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Hydrologic classification of Tanzanian rivers to support national water resource policy

et al. 2021

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Classifying rivers into homogeneous categories based on hydrological and/or environmental attributes supports the implementation of environmental flows to sustain aquatic ecosystems and support the resource needs of society. Hydrological classifications provide decision‐makers with a pragmatic number of water management units by grouping individual rivers or river segments expected to exhibit similar biophysical responses to flow alteration. Such classifications are particularly useful across broad geographies and in data‐limited contexts, such as in Tanzania, where the legal requirement to implement environmental flows for all major waterbodies remains constrained by scant data. We present a two‐level hydrological classification of all Tanzanian basins and the Rufiji River Basin. For the Rufiji River Basin, the largest river basin in the country, we performed an inductive classification based on the availability of long‐term time series of daily average discharge. We clustered 28 gauging stations into seven classes according to ecologically relevant hydrological metrics and used boosted classification trees to predict the hydrological class of all 95,909 river segments in the basin based on environmental attributes that influence flow regimes. In the absence of consistent, readily‐available gauged flow data, we conducted a deductive classification of all Tanzanian rivers whereby segments were directly grouped by multivariate similarity using the same environmental attributes. This analysis revealed 10 river classes reflecting the diversity of ecohydrological conditions characterizing the 486,681 river segments draining in and out of Tanzania. The new hydrological classifications presented here provide the foundation to guide implementation of management practices within the water policy framework of Tanzania.

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Water and Energy Management in India

2021

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Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Kilombero Catchment in Tanzania

Cited by 38 publications

References 59 publications

The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios

The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Hydrologic classification of Tanzanian rivers to support national water resource policy

Water and Energy Management in India

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