Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production and Potential Adaptive Measures in the Olifants Catchment, South Africa

Olabanji, Mary Funke; Ndarana, Thando; Davis, Nerhene

doi:10.3390/cli9010006

Cited by 20 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 39 publications

(47 reference statements)

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“…Effects of climate change in crops have also been studied previously in arid and semi-arid regions such as Jordan. Results agree with our findings, as increasing crop water requirements and steady decline in crop yields are expected, due to raising temperatures, increased evapotranspiration and decreased precipitation during planting seasons [38,39,41,46].…”

Section: No Intervention Scenariosupporting

confidence: 92%

“…The MABIA-WEAP package (originally developed in the Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie by Dr. Ali Sahli and Mohamed Jabloun) [37] has been commonly used to project crop and irrigation water requirements and estimate the effects of climate change on crops [38,39]. We used MABIA to make daily simulations of evapotranspiration, irrigation needs and climatic and crop-specific variables.…”

Section: The Mabia Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An assessment of strategies for sustainability priority challenges in Jordan using a water–energy–food Nexus approach

et al. 2022

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This study aimed at supporting robust decision-making for planning and management of water–energy–food Nexus systems in the country of Jordan. Nexus priority challenges in Jordan were identified as (1) water scarcity, (2) agricultural productivity and water quality, and (3) shift to energy independence. We created a water–energy–food Nexus model that integrates three modelling frameworks: (1) the Water Evaluation and Planning system WEAP model to estimate water demands, supplies and allocation; (2) the MABIA model to estimate crop production, and, (3) a GIS-based energy modelling tool to estimate energy requirements of the water system. Through a set of scenario runs, results show how desalination is needed to address water scarcity, but it has to be coupled with low-carbon electricity generation in order to not exacerbate climate change. Improving water productivity in agriculture improves most of the studied dimensions across the water–energy–food security nexus; however, it does little for water scarcity at the municipal level. Reducing non-revenue water can have positive effects on municipal unmet demand and reduction of energy for pumping, but it does not improve agricultural water productivity and may have negative feedback effects on the Jordan Valleys aquifer levels. Energy efficiency can support energy-intensive projects, like desalination, by substantially reducing the load on the energy system, preventing increased emissions and achieving a more resilient water system. Finally, when all interventions are considered together all of the major drawbacks are reduced and the benefits augmented, producing a more holistic solution to the WEF Nexus challenges in Jordan.

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Section: No Intervention Scenariosupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: The Mabia Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An assessment of strategies for sustainability priority challenges in Jordan using a water–energy–food Nexus approach

et al. 2022

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“…In addition to human and economic factors, environmental factors might have also largely contributed to the percentage of cropland cover and the crop production quantity during the study years (Figure 8), and this has been reported by several authors [116,117]. For example, the average precipitation was not uniformly distributed.…”

Section: Impacts Of Environmental Factors On Food Securitymentioning

confidence: 64%

Subsidy as An Economic Instrument for Environmental Protection: A Case of Global Fertilizer Use

et al. 2021

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Fertilizer subsidies may constitute a key economic tool with which to provide food for the growing population. Therefore, this work aimed to (i) assess the effectiveness of subsidized chemical (NPK) fertilizer use in food production by comparing the crop output between developed and developing regions and (ii) examine the benefits of organic fertilizer and the need for its use in developing regions such as Africa. Secondary data from 2000 to 2019 on global subsidized fertilizer use, crop production, income, and other agro-environmental parameters, such as climate and soil, were collected from the international databases of the World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Forest Resources Assessment (FRA), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and World Income Inequalities Database (WID), as well as countries’ national statistics. Data were analyzed using qualitative, quantitative, and geospatial software and techniques, such as SPSS, averages, multivariate analysis, and spatial analytical Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. The results reveal that the total global fertilizer use continuously increased from 79 million tonnes in 2000 to 125 million tonnes in 2019. Subsidized fertilizer use and crop production increased with countries’ economic status. For example, countries or regions with more economic resources tended to have higher fertilizer subsidies. More than 95% of North American and European countries recorded the highest total chemical fertilizer use, ranging from 855,160 to 18,224,035 kgha−1. In terms of organic fertilizer production, the percentage contribution in Africa relative to global production was only 2%, which was about 932,538 million tonnes below the production yield in North America. More organic fertilizer and less inorganic fertilizer should be encouraged instead of the total eradication of chemical fertilizers. This is especially applicable to developing countries, where food production is low due to poor soil and high food demand owing to a harsh environment and rapid population growth.

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“…To establish values for this parameter, yield data of the different crops were obtained from the Thuringian state statistics (TLS, 2021). The Yield Response Factor is a factor that describes the reduction in relative yield according to the reduction in the crop evapotranspiration (ETc) caused by soil water shortage (Olabanji et al, 2021). The data were obtained from the crop library functionality that is implemented in WEAP-MABIA and based on the FAO-56 report (Allen et al, 1998).…”

Section: Catchment Data: User Defined Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential of unused small-scale water reservoirs for climate change adaptation: A model- and scenario based analysis of a local water reservoir system in Thuringia, Germany

2022

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The 6th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (2021) stated that hot extremes have become more frequent and intense across most land regions in the past decades. It is projected that the changing climatic conditions in Germany and Thuringia in particular will lead to a higher frequency of drought events. Thus, it is vital to develop local adaptation strategies to mitigate the effects of droughts on agriculture to ensure future crop production. Water resource infrastructure has a critical role in planning future climate change adaptation measures that are sustainable. As the construction of new dams and reservoirs is controversial, it is preferable to use existing infrastructures, if they are suitable. Small-scale water management reservoirs built in Thuringia during the GDR (German Democratic Republic) and decommissioned after the German reunification were examined in this study to determine whether their reuse could be considered as a potential adaptation strategy. For this purpose, three reservoirs in Thuringia were selected. The impact of climate change on soil moisture, water availability and crop production, and the use of water from the reservoirs to meet future irrigation needs were modeled using the Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP). The modeled climatic changes have direct effects on the soil moisture status, leading to a higher water demand of the local agriculture. The results show that the crop water needs could double between near future (2020–2040) and distant future (2071–2100). However, predicted declines in yields can be mitigated by irrigation; modeling results indicate that supplemental irrigation with reservoir water mitigates projected losses and even allows 6.2–13.5% more crop production. Hence, the reuse of the reservoirs is worth to be considered as an adaptation strategy by policymakers. In addition to a cost-benefit analysis for future evaluation of the reservoirs, local user interests and demands need to be included avoiding conflicts about water. In general, WEAP as a modeling tool and the findings of the study show, that this research approach could be used to investigate the potential adaptive capacity of other small-scale water infrastructures.

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Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production and Potential Adaptive Measures in the Olifants Catchment, South Africa

Cited by 20 publications

References 39 publications

An assessment of strategies for sustainability priority challenges in Jordan using a water–energy–food Nexus approach

An assessment of strategies for sustainability priority challenges in Jordan using a water–energy–food Nexus approach

Subsidy as An Economic Instrument for Environmental Protection: A Case of Global Fertilizer Use

The potential of unused small-scale water reservoirs for climate change adaptation: A model- and scenario based analysis of a local water reservoir system in Thuringia, Germany

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