Research on Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) dynamics, and an understanding of the drivers responsible for these changes, are very crucial for modelling future LULC changes and the formulation of sustainable and robust land-management strategies and policy decisions. This study adopted a mixed method consisting of remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS)-based analysis, focus-group discussions, key informant interviews, and semi-structured interviews covering 586 households to assess LULC dynamics and associated LULC change drivers across the Dedza district, a central region of Malawi. GIS-based analysis of remotely sensed data revealed that barren land and built-up areas extensively increased at the expense of agricultural and forest land between 1991 and 2015. Analysis of the household-survey results revealed that the perceptions of respondents tended to validate the observed patterns during the remotely sensed data-analysis phase of the research, with 57.3% (n = 586) of the respondents reporting a decline in agricultural land use, and 87.4% (n = 586) observing a decline in forest areas in the district. Furthermore, firewood collection, charcoal production, population growth, and poverty were identified as the key drivers of these observed LULC changes in the study area. Undoubtedly, education has emerged as a significant factor influencing respondents’ perceptions of these drivers of LULC changes. However, unsustainable LULC changes observed in this study have negative implications on rural livelihoods and natural-resource management. Owing to the critical role that LULC dynamics play to rural livelihoods and the ecosystem, this study recommends further research to establish the consequences of these changes. The present study and future research will support decision makers and planners in the design of tenable and coherent land-management strategies.

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Climate change is expected to substantially reduce future crop yields in South Africa, thus affecting food security and livelihood. Adaptation strategies need to be implemented to mitigate the effect of climate change-induced yield losses. In this paper, we used the WEAP-MABIA model, driven by six CORDEX climate change data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, to quantify the effect of climate change on several key crops, namely maize, soya beans, dry beans, and sunflower, in the Olifants catchment. The study further investigated climate change adaptation such as the effects of changing planting dates with the application of full irrigation, rainwater harvesting, deficit irrigation method, and the application of efficient irrigation devices on reducing the impact of climate change on crop production. The results show that average monthly temperature is expected to increase by 1 °C to 5 °C while a reduction in precipitation ranging between 2.5% to 58.7% is projected for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 relative to the baseline climate for 1976–2005, respectively. The results also reveal that increased temperature and decreased precipitation during planting seasons are expected to increase crop water requirements. A steady decline in crop yield ranging between 19–65%, 11–38%, 16–42%, and 5–30% for maize, soya beans, dry beans, and sunflower, respectively, is also projected under both RCPs climate change scenarios. The study concludes that adaptation measures such as the integration of changing planting dates with full irrigation application and the use of rainwater harvest will help improve current and future crop production under the impact of climate change.

In recent years, maize production in South Africa has faced challenges related to climate change which have prompted farmers to adapt their production activities. We assessed factors informing the adaptive decision-making of maize farmers in the Vaal catchment by examining linkages between farmers’ experiences, their perceptions of climate change and the adaptation strategies they use. Data were collected through semi-structured household-level interviews, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. Catchment climate data were also collected to determine key 30 yr trends (1989-2018) and the farmers’ level of awareness about these trends. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Sen’s slope test, climate anomalies and multinomial logit modelling. Results suggest that maize farmers in the catchment are aware of climate change (95%), with many of them referring to it as ‘a shift in climate’. This perceived ‘shift’ is supported by meteorological data, as the MK test confirmed a decreasing inter-annual precipitation trend (-0.149) and a decreasing trend at the onset of the maize planting season (-0.167), with temperature showing an increasing trend (0.470). These trends have inspired the adoption of a range of timing-related responses and other farming and off-farm adaptations. Modelling results revealed farmer perception, farmer typology and the nature of maize production (rainfed) as some of the variables with a deciding influence on the nature of the adaptation employed. The study confirms the importance of understanding intersections between qualitative and quantitative variables in triggering adaptive responses. Current strategies need to be expanded and supplemented to improve resilience and prevent maladaptation.

The deployment of adaptation plans to limit the threat of climate change often hinges on the capacity of various national and local institutions. An observed decline in South Africa's maize production over the last few decades has raised questions about the capacity of institutions responsible for providing climate change‐related adaptive support to maize farmers in the country. This study assessed the adaptive capacity of management institutions in South Africa supporting maize producers, using a combination of literature review, document analysis, and in‐depth interviews applied in the adaptive capacity wheel (ACW) assessment tool. On the basis of the results obtained from this analysis, the adaptive capacity of South African institutions responsible for climate change response processes was scored as medium. Findings from the research suggest that the advances made to date in South Africa in terms of climate change‐related policy development, resource allocation, and capacity development could be inadequate, given the extent of identified institutional weaknesses, capacity constraints, knowledge, and information limitations. The study concludes that an inability to address current institutional limitations, considering the threats associated with climate change, may result in intensified social and economic challenges in the maize production sector. The study recommends the consistent revision and capacitation of these institutions to enable them to provide the type of support that will ensure effective adaptive responses for farmers involved in maize production in the country. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:1056–1069. © 2021 SETAC