Impact of climate and population change on temperature-related mortality burden in Bavaria, Germany

Abstract

Background. Recent studies on temperature-related mortality burden generally found higher coldrelated deaths than heat-related deaths. In the future, it is anticipated that global warming will, on one hand result in larger heat-related mortality but on the other hand lead to less cold-related mortality. Thus, it remains unclear whether the net change in temperature-related mortality burden will increase in the future under climate change.Objectives. We aimed to quantify the impact of climate change on heat-, cold-, and the total temperature-related (net change) mortality burden taking into account the future demographic changes across five districts in Bavaria, Germany by the end of the 21st century.Methods. We applied location-specific age-specific exposure-response functions (ERFs) to project the net change in temperature-related mortality burden during the future period 2083-2099 as compared to the baseline period 1990-2006. The projections were under different combinations of five climate change scenarios (assuming a constant climate, Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) and six population projection scenarios (assuming a constant population, Shared Socio-economic Pathway [SSP] 1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4, and SSP5). Our projections were under the assumption of a constant vulnerability of the future population. We furthered compared the results with projections using location-specific overall all-age ERFs, i.e. not considering the age-effect and population aging.Results. The net temperature-related mortality for the total population was found to increase significantly under all scenarios of climate and population change with the highest total increments under SSP5-RCP8.5 by 19.61% (95% empirical CI (eCI): 11.78, 30.91). Under the same scenario for age 75, the increment was by 30.46% (95% eCI: 18.60, 47.74) and for age <75, the increment was by 0.28% (95% eCI: −2.84, 3.24). Considering the combination SSP2-RCP2.6, the middle-of-the road population and the lowest climate change scenario, the net temperature-related mortality for the total population was found to still increase by 9.33% (95% eCI: 5.94, 12.76). Contrastingly, the mortality projection without consideration of an age-effect and population aging under the same scenario resulted in a decrease of temperature-related deaths by −0.23% (95% eCI −0.64, 0.14), thus showing an underestimation of temperature-related mortality. Furthermore, the results of climate-only effect showed no considerable changes, whereas, the population-only effect showed a high, up to 17. 35% (95% eCI: 11.46, 22.70), increment in the net temperature-related deaths.Conclusion. The elderly population (age 75), highly vulnerable to both heat and cold, is projected to be about four folds the younger population (age<75) in the future. Thus, the combined effect of global warming and population aging results in an increase in both the heat-and the cold-related deaths. The population-effect dominates the climate-effect. Mitigation and age-specific adapta...

Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China

“…Considering the bias between the projected population and census data, we calculated the district/county-specific correction factor by comparing the population for 2010 from the SSP dataset and the 2010 population census from the National Bureau of Statistics (http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/pcsj/). The correction factor is assumed to be constant and is used to adjust the SSP-specific and district/ county-specific projected population under five SSPs 52 . The present study considered six population scenarios in China: a no population change scenario assuming that the population structure remains constant from 2010 to 2099, and five SSPs.…”

Universal thermal climate index associations with mortality, hospital admissions, and road accidents in Bavaria

“…Generally, the eastern districts of Bavaria have higher hospital admission rates per 100,000 inhabitants than the western ones ( Fig 2 ), probably not due to more hospital beds (see S4 Fig for no apparent east-west differences), but likely due to a higher share of elderly people in the (north-) eastern districts of Bavaria, especially the districts of Wunsiedel and Hof, and in Garmisch-Partenkirchen in the south ( Fig 1 ). It is well known that this senior part of the population is particularly vulnerable to heat/cold stress [ 49 ], probably resulting in higher hospital admissions and mortality in these districts at all times of the year, but especially in winter. These above-mentioned districts are characterized by lower UTCI values in winter, likely contributing to this spatial pattern in winter.…”

“…The Bavarian population increased by 850,000 inhabitants over two decades, reaching 12.8 million in 2015 [ 65 ]. The corresponding increase in daily hospital admissions was concentrated in the elderly, children, and males, most likely due to a higher proportion of elderly in the German population being especially vulnerable to heat stress [ 49 ]. The increasing trend of death due to lung problems might be related to air pollution [ 66 ], as well as lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), especially among the increasing number of smoking women [ 67 ].…”

“…Within Germany, Bavaria is expected to suffer an increase in mortality rate due to climate change and population aging [ 49 ]. Temperature extremes induced higher mortality rates among the elderly [ 50 ] and higher cardiovascular mortality [ 51 ].…”

Combined Effect of Hot Weather and Outdoor Air Pollution on Respiratory Health: Literature Review

“…If people cannot adapt to future climate change, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions, while European countries and the United States will have smaller increases [37]. At the same time, considering future impacts on respiratory diseases, progressive population aging, growing spread of chronic diseases, and socioeconomic transformations that are currently taking place in a number of countries, especially in Europe and Northern America, will probably raise the portion of the population at risk [186,187]. This is crucial for individuals with impaired adaptation to weather variability, such as the elderly.…”