Impact of atmospheric heat and moisture transport on the Arctic warming

Abstract

The effect of the meridional atmospheric heat and moisture transport on the Arctic warming is estimated using the ERA‐Interim reanalysis over 1979–2015. Major influx of sensible and latent heat into the Arctic occurs through the Atlantic sector 0°–80°E between the surface and the 750 hPa level. This influx explains more than 50% of the average temperature variability in the area 70°–90°N in winter with almost equal contribution of both fluxes. Calculations using MPI‐ESM‐MR Earth System model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble showed the similar effect of the meridional atmospheric heat and moisture transport and its increase by the end of the century. Mean summer transport in the low troposphere is directed from the Arctic and transfers out the moisture produced by summer melting of sea ice. The major drivers of summer warming are the radiation processes especially downwards longwave radiation.

Atmospheric moisture transport and the decline in Arctic Sea ice

“…Comparisons of humidity from profiles obtained from nine high‐latitude radiosonde stations north of 70°N with MERRA, CFSR, and ERA‐Interim reanalysis datasets for the period 1979 to 2010 show mostly positive trends in column‐integrated (surface to 500 hPa) water vapor, but the magnitudes and statistical significance differ greatly between sites and seasons (Serreze, Barrett, & Stroeve, ). Other findings, based on reanalysis data sets for the period 1979–2016, also confirm that the amount of precipitable water is increasing over the Arctic (Oshima & Yamazaki, ), with a maximum increase in August (Alekseev, Kuzmina, Bobylev, Urazgildeeva, & Gnatiuk, ). This trend in Arctic moisture could be due to an increase in the amount of moisture fed into the atmosphere from the Arctic Ocean itself (Boisvert, Markus, & Vihma, ; Boisvert, Wu, & Shie, found significant increases between 2003 and 2013) or due to trends in the net horizontal atmospheric moisture transport into the Arctic from remote external sources, or due to trends in both processes.…”

“…Second, in this review we reaffirm that there is no a clear agreement regarding the trends in atmospheric moisture transport to the Arctic as a whole. Even for the same period of 1980–2010, some studies find positive trends (Villamil‐Otero et al, ) and others find negative trends (Dufour et al, or Oshima & Yamazaki, ), depending on the reanalysis data and the line of latitude used to compute meridional fluxes, the possible trends being different for different monthly series of transport (e.g., negative for summer months, Alekseev et al, ) and for different vertical levels, decreasing the trend for meridional net moisture transport below 700 hPa and increasing moderately above this level (Dufour et al, ). Third, we confirm the influence of the major modes of climate variability and the changes in cyclonic activity in the variability of moisture transport to the Arctic.…”

“…At a monthly scale Alekseev et al (2019), for the period 1979-2014, show that water vapor through 70 N decreased in the summer months of July and August, and also from September to November, and February (the only significant trend at the F I G U R E 1 Schematic Arctic moisture transport according to different authors. The main moisture source areas found by Vázquez et al (2016) for the Arctic system defined by Roberts et al (2010), area shown in blue, are represented by the orange filled contours for the annual mean (a), summer (b), and winter (c).…”

The effect of water temperature anomalies at low latitudes of the ocean on Arctic climate variations and their predictability

“…Увеличение меридионального атмосферного и океанического притока тепла в Арк тику среди причин арк тического усиления глобального потепления рассматривалось во многих работах [2][3][4][5]. Рост меридиональных атмосферных переносов тепла в Арктику связан с изменениями циркуляции атмосферы, в частности в результате внешних воздействий на интенсивность и пространственно-временное распределение атмосферных циркуляционных структур.…”

“…Рост меридиональных атмосферных переносов тепла в Арктику связан с изменениями циркуляции атмосферы, в частности в результате внешних воздействий на интенсивность и пространственно-временное распределение атмосферных циркуляционных структур. Непосредственное воздействие на атмосферную циркуляцию и, следовательно, на меридиональный атмосферный перенос тепла оказывают аномалии температуры поверхности океана (ТПО) [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. Здесь и далее под аномалиями ТПО понимаются аномалии среднемесячной ТПО относительно многолетних средних значений.…”