Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia

Abstract

Human-induced climate warming by 2100 is expected to thaw large expanses of northern permafrost peatlands. However, the spatio-temporal dynamics of permafrost peatland thaw remain uncertain due to complex permafrost-climate interactions, the insulating properties of peat soils, and variation in model projections of future climate. Here we show that permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia will soon surpass a climatic tipping point under scenarios of moderate-to-high warming (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The total peatland area affected under these scenarios contains 37.0-39.5 Gt carbon (equivalent to twice the amount of carbon stored in European forests). Our bioclimatic models indicate that all of Fennoscandia will become climatically unsuitable for peatland permafrost by 2040. Strong action to reduce emissions (SSP1-2.6) by the 2090s could retain suitable climates for permafrost peatlands storing 13.9 Gt carbon in northernmost Western Siberia, indicating that socioeconomic policies will determine the rate and extent of permafrost peatland thaw. Main

We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems

“…Given the complexity of the permafrost domain and the unprecedented speed of climate change, we do not know the specific timeline and severity of disruption to its peoples, biodiversity, and biogeochemistry (Proverbs et al, 2020;Bruhwiler et al, 2021;Canadell et al, 2021;Fewster et al, 2022;Mann et al, 2022;Versen et al, 2022). For example, the most comprehensive permafrost model intercomparison project (MIP) of carbon balance estimated a range of ~600 Gt of carbon release to ~200 Gt of carbon uptake by the year 2300 (McGuire et al, 2018).…”

“…Persistent uncertainty about permafrost processes does not limit our ability to act now to protect the permafrost domain. Across traditional, modeled, and empirical approaches, there is consensus that the timing and degree of damage to the permafrost domain are directly associated with the amount of human-caused warming (Canadell et al, 2021;Abbott B. W., 2022;Cheng et al, 2022;Fewster et al, 2022). The question then becomes, how can we most effectively reduce anthropogenic climate change?…”

Impacts of Land-Use Change on the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage in the Gansu Province, Northwest China

“…For the Qilian Mountains and Gannan Plateau, we should focus on the protection and restoration of forest and grassland to improve vegetation cover, and thus increasing carbon sequestration capacity. In addition, with the influence of climate warming, the melting of permafrost in alpine mountainous regions could cause the decomposition of organic matter, which may release large amounts of carbon [71]. Li et al [40] also suggested that, in alpine regions, warming will accelerate the release rate of soil carbon, thus effective measures, such as planting zonal shrub species to increase the coverage, should be taken into practice to reduce the surface temperature.…”

Geochemical Negative Emissions Technologies: Part II. Roadmap

“…This could create problems in terms of human and environmental wellbeing and could also jeopardize any future deployment of geochemical NETs, similar to the observed controversy surrounding ocean iron fertilization (Fuentes-George, 2017). Second, we risk deployment too far in the future to achieve the primary goal of geochemical NETs, which is to reduce the atmospheric CO 2 concentration in time to avoid climate catastrophes and tipping points (Boers and Rypdal, 2021;Fewster et al, 2022;Shukla et al, 2022).…”