Climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC) are two factors that produce major impacts on hydrological processes. Understanding and quantifying their respective influence is of great importance for water resources management and socioeconomic activities as well as policy and planning for sustainable development. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated in upper stream of the Heihe River in Northwest China. The reliability of the SWAT model was corroborated in terms of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the correlation coefficient (R), and the relative bias error (BIAS). The findings proposed a new method employing statistical separation procedures using a physically based modeling system for identifying the individual impacts of climate change and LUCC on hydrology processes, in particular on the aspects of runoff and evapotranspiration (ET). The results confirmed that SWAT was a powerful and accurate model for diagnosis of a key challenge facing the Heihe River Basin. The model assessment metrics, NSE, R, and BIAS, in the data were 0.91%, 0.95%, and 1.14%, respectively, for the calibration period and 0.90%, 0.96%, and −0.15%, respectively, for the validation period. An assessment of climate change possibility showed that precipitation, runoff, and air temperature exhibited upward trends with a rate of 15.7 mm, 6.1 mm, and 0.38 °C per decade for the 1980 to 2010 period, respectively. Evaluation of LUCC showed that the changes in growth of vegetation, including forestland, grassland, and the shrub area have increased gradually while the barren area has decreased. The integrated effects of LUCC and climate change increased runoff and ET values by 3.2% and 6.6% of the total runoff and ET, respectively. Climate change outweighed the impact of LUCC, thus showing respective increases in runoff and ET of about 107.3% and 81.2% of the total changes. The LUCC influence appeared to be modest by comparison and showed about −7.3% and 18.8% changes relative to the totals, respectively. The increase in runoff caused by climate change factors is more than the offsetting decreases resulting from LUCC. The outcomes of this study show that the climate factors accounted for the notable effects more significantly than LUCC on hydrological processes in the upper stream of the Heihe River.

This paper presents a detailed analysis of how future climate change may affect water availability in a typical arid endorheic river basin, the Heihe River basin (HRB), in northwest China. The analysis is based on the improved Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which is calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data from the upper HRB and is used to predict future hydrological responses. Six general circulation models (GCMs), under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), are downscaled to construct future climate change scenarios. The results suggest that the climate of the upper HRB will likely become warmer and wetter in the near future (2021–50), with the largest increase in precipitation occurring in the summer. Correspondingly, the basinwide evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and runoff are projected to increase over the same period. The mean temperature in the near future is projected to rise, relative to the recent 30 years (1981–2010), by 1.2°–1.7°C under scenario RCP4.5 and by 1.4°–2.1°C under scenario RCP8.5. The mean precipitation is projected to increase by 10.0%–16.6% under scenario RCP4.5, and by 10.5%–22.0% under scenario RCP8.5. The mean values of evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and runoff are expected to increase by 14.2%, 4.3%, and 11.4%, respectively, under scenario RCP4.5 and to increase by 18.7%, 5.8%, and 12.8%, respectively, under scenario RCP8.5. Though the model simulations forecast an increase in streamflows in the headwater region of the HRB, future water availability varies significantly over space and time. The findings of this study will help to frame more effective water management strategies for the HRB under changing climatic conditions.

Cropland redistribution to marginal land has been reported worldwide; however, the resulting impacts on environmental sustainability have not been investigated sufficiently. Here we investigated the environmental impacts of cropland redistribution in China. Due to urbanization-induced loss of high-quality croplands in south China (∼8.5 t ha–1), croplands expanded to marginal lands in northeast (∼4.5 t ha–1) and northwest China (∼2.9 t ha–1) during 1990–2015 to pursue food security. However, the reclamation in these low-yield and ecologically vulnerable zones considerably undermined local environmental sustainability, e.g. increasing wind erosion (+3.47%), irrigation water consumption (+34.42%), fertilizer use (+20.02%), and decreasing natural habitats (−3.11%). Forecasts show that further reclamation in marginal lands per current policies would exacerbate environmental costs by 2050. The future cropland security risk will be remarkably intensified due to the conflict between food production and environmental sustainability. Our research suggests that globally emerging reclamation of marginal lands should be restricted and crop yield boost should be encouraged for both food security and environmental benefits.

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