Imagining transformative biodiversity futures

Wyborn, Carina; Davila, Federico; Pereira, Laura; Lim, Michelle; Alvarez, Isis; Henderson, G.; Luers, Amy; Martínez‐Harms, Maria José; Maze, Kristal; Montana, Jasper; Ryan, Melanie; Sandbrook, Chris; Shaw, Rebecca; Woods, Emma

doi:10.1038/s41893-020-0587-5

Cited by 72 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 20 publications

(20 reference statements)

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“…Under the current socio‐economic trajectory, the world will miss most of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and so we need to initiate changes in our economies, technologies and societies if we are to shift onto a more sustainable global development pathway (Naidoo & Fisher, 2020). The development of the NFF rests on the assumption that there is a critical need to develop positive nature‐people scenarios for the future of our planet, particularly at such a moment when we need to act now to prevent irreversible environmental devastation with severe consequences to humanity (Steffen et al., 2018; Wyborn et al., 2020).…”

Section: Conclusion: Reframing Nature Futuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The development of the NFF rests on the assumption that there is a critical need to develop positive nature-people scenarios for the future of our planet, particularly at such a moment when we need to act now to prevent irreversible environmental devastation with severe consequences to humanity (Steffen et al, 2018;Wyborn et al, 2020).…”

Section: Con Clus Ion: Refr Aming Nature Futu Re Smentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In relation to nature conservation, IPBES have highlighted the particular importance of including indigenous and local knowledge (ILK), which has long been marginalized or invisible in global scenarios and models. It is therefore increasingly clear that there is a need for new global scenarios for nature (Kok et al., 2016; Rosa et al., 2017; Wyborn et al., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Developing multiscale and integrative nature–people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework

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Section: Conclusion: Reframing Nature Futuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Con Clus Ion: Refr Aming Nature Futu Re Smentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Developing multiscale and integrative nature–people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework

et al. 2020

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“…For example, the impacts of the steam engine on society would have been impossible to imagine for a person living in a medieval village, despite the fact that the 'seeds' of this future had existed since Hero of Alexandria first captured the power of steam in the first century A.D. Unpacking the implications of how the future will unfold is not simply about being able to anticipate surprises, but is also about using the power of human creativity to imagine how possible future worlds may unfold; both utopian and dystopian. This important component is often neglected in assessments, but is increasingly being recognised as critical for improved decision-making about the future of the planet (Wyborn et al 2020).…”

Section: Imagination: Using Creativity To Inspire Action Despite Conditions Of Complexity and Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments

Pereira

Kuiper

Selomane

et al. 2021

Ecosystems and People

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Global Environmental Assessments (GEAs) are in a unique position to influence environmental decision-making in the context of sustainability challenges. To do this effectively, however, new methods are needed to respond to the needs of decision-makers for a more integrated, contextualized and goal-seeking evaluation of different policies, geared for action from global to local. While scenarios are an important tool for GEAs to link short-term decisions and medium and long-term consequences, these current information needs cannot be met only through deductive approaches focused on the global level. In this paper, we argue that a more diverse set of futures tools operating at multiple scales are needed to improve GEA scenario development and analysis to meet the information needs of policymakers and other stakeholders better. Based on the literature, we highlight four challenges that GEAs need to be able to address in order to contribute to global environmental decision-making about the future: 1. anticipate unpredictable future conditions; 2. be relevant at multiple scales, 3. include diverse actors, perspectives and contexts; and 4. leverage the imagination to inspire action. We present a toolbox of future-oriented approaches and methods that can be used to effectively address the four challenges currently faced by GEAs.

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Section: New Scenarios For Naturementioning

confidence: 99%

Developing multi-scale and integrative nature-people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework

Pereira¹,

Davies²,

Belder³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Scientists have repeatedly argued that transformative, multiscale global scenarios are needed as tools in the quest to halt the decline of biodiversity and achieve sustainability goals. As a first step towards achieving this, the experts who participated in the scenarios and models expert group of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) entered into an iterative, participatory process that led to the development of the Nature Futures Framework (NFF). The NFF is a heuristic tool that captures diverse, positive relationships of humans with nature in the form of a triangle. It can be used both as a boundary object for continuously opening up more plural perspectives in the creation of desirable nature scenarios and as an actionable framework for developing consistent nature scenarios across multiple scales. Here, we describe the methods employed to develop the NFF and how this fits into a longer-term process to create transformative, multiscale scenarios for nature. We argue that the contribution of the NFF is two-fold: a) its ability to hold a plurality of perspectives on what is desirable, which enables the development of joint goals and visions and recognises the possible convergence and synergies of measures to achieve these and b), its multi-scale functionality for elaborating scenarios and models that can inform decision-making at relevant levels, making it applicable across specific places and perspectives on nature. If humanity is to achieve its goal of a more sustainable and prosperous future rooted in a flourishing nature, it is critical to open up a space for more plural perspectives of human-nature relationships. As the global community sets out to develop new goals for biodiversity, the NFF can be used as a navigation tool helping to make diverse, desirable futures are possible.

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Imagining transformative biodiversity futures

Cited by 72 publications

References 20 publications

Developing multiscale and integrative nature–people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework

Developing multiscale and integrative nature–people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework

Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments

Developing multi-scale and integrative nature-people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework

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