Developing multi-scale and integrative nature-people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework

Abstract

Scientists have repeatedly argued that transformative, multiscale global scenarios are needed as tools in the quest to halt the decline of biodiversity and achieve sustainability goals. As a first step towards achieving this, the experts who participated in the scenarios and models expert group of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) entered into an iterative, participatory process that led to the development of the Nature Futures Framework (NFF). The NFF is a heuristic tool that captures diverse, positive relationships of humans with nature in the form of a triangle. It can be used both as a boundary object for continuously opening up more plural perspectives in the creation of desirable nature scenarios and as an actionable framework for developing consistent nature scenarios across multiple scales. Here, we describe the methods employed to develop the NFF and how this fits into a longer-term process to create transformative, multiscale scenarios for nature. We argue that the contribution of the NFF is two-fold: a) its ability to hold a plurality of perspectives on what is desirable, which enables the development of joint goals and visions and recognises the possible convergence and synergies of measures to achieve these and b), its multi-scale functionality for elaborating scenarios and models that can inform decision-making at relevant levels, making it applicable across specific places and perspectives on nature. If humanity is to achieve its goal of a more sustainable and prosperous future rooted in a flourishing nature, it is critical to open up a space for more plural perspectives of human-nature relationships. As the global community sets out to develop new goals for biodiversity, the NFF can be used as a navigation tool helping to make diverse, desirable futures are possible.

Transformative Conservation of Ecosystems

“…Counternarratives foster transformation by positing alternative futures that increase understanding of SES, respect pluralism, emphasize human responsibility, and promote collaboration (Wyborn et al, 2020). Ongoing work on a Nature Future Framework incorporates multiple values and scales, and co-produces knowledge in constructing and deliberating biodiversity scenarios (Pereira et al, 2020). Of this initiative's three scenarios (Nature for Nature, for Society, and for Culture), the third envisions an approach to conservation that is similar to the concept developed in this article.…”

Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments

“…GEO-6 and IPBES subglobal assessments). For the biodiversity community, the development of the Nature Futures framework is intended to provide such a coherent structure for cross-level scenario development and comparison (Pereira et al 2020).…”

“…However, there is indication that there is appetite for more novel approaches to allow for greater usefulness. The UNEP GEO-6 report was unique in its attempt to bridge more 'bottom-up' approaches with modelling (Asrar et al 2019) and the Nature Futures Framework that has been developed by the IPBES task force on scenarios and models (Pereira et al 2020) offer hope that more flexibility is possible.…”

Transformative scenarios for biodiversity conservation and sustainability

“…Otero et al (2020) mention our initial step on this pathway, where we utilized participatory approaches to co‐design a suite of desirable futures for nature with a diverse subset of global stakeholders, including indigenous and local communities (Lundquist et al, 2017). These future visions were then used to catalyze the construction of the transformative Nature Futures Framework, a platform for scenario development that can provide for a diversity of human values and perspectives on nature and nature's contributions to people (Pereira et al, 2020).…”

“…(2020). Instead, the Framework allows for the expression of multiple possible "positive" future pathways in terms of sustainability, as shown through the diversity of future visioning and scenario exercises that we have hosted with global and regional stakeholder groups (Pereira et al., 2020). Diverse economic pathways are just one component that we are integrating within this new scenarios framework, which are underpinned by human relationships with nature.…”