Developing multiscale and integrative nature–people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework

Abstract

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The voices of youth in envisioning positive futures for nature and people

“…'Seeds' refer to existing initiatives that are not widespread or well-known; they can be social initiatives, new technologies, economic tools, social-ecological projects, or organizations, movements or new ways of acting that according to someone, have the potential to make a substantial contribution towards creating a future that is just, prosperous, and sustainable (Bennett et al 2016). This approach has previously been employed in the development of positive nature visions by the IPBES task force on scenarios and models (Lundquist et al 2017) and was the starting point of the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) that is used in this paper and will be described below (Pereira et al 2020). Being a fairly new tool, the resulting NFF requires case studies to test its applicability in a variety of contexts and stakeholders in order (Pereira et al 2020).…”

“…This approach has previously been employed in the development of positive nature visions by the IPBES task force on scenarios and models (Lundquist et al 2017) and was the starting point of the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) that is used in this paper and will be described below (Pereira et al 2020). Being a fairly new tool, the resulting NFF requires case studies to test its applicability in a variety of contexts and stakeholders in order (Pereira et al 2020). The Brazil workshop was the first case study of the new Nature Futures framework being developed by the IPBES task force on scenarios and models.…”

“…The NFF triangle explicitly recognizes that people consider multiple values of nature. First, a triangle was drawn on the floor to represent the NFF triangle with the three vertices clearly marked on each corner to represent the different values of nature: 'Nature for Nature' which primarily emphasises the intrinsic value of nature, 'Nature for Society' which emphasises the instrumental value of nature and 'Nature as Culture', which emphasises the intertwined way people and nature connect (Pereira et al 2020). Then, the participants were asked to reflect on 'why they value nature', thinking on a particular context and situation, and position themselves within the triangle on the basis of this preferred value.…”

“…Further adaptation of the methods is important to be able to see how to ensure a genuine collection of positive nature futures can be generated from participatory processes at the global level. The more case studies there are that make use of the seeds approach and NFF, and explicitly employ different ways of choosing the initial seeds will allow for a more rigorous interpretation of the resulting visions (See Pereira et al 2020). Also, we suggest that more studies following the seeds approach also focus on including discussions on feedback and tensions that might arise from the interaction in the imagined future world.…”

Transformative scenarios for biodiversity conservation and sustainability

“…Otero et al (2020) mention our initial step on this pathway, where we utilized participatory approaches to co-design a suite of desirable futures for nature with a diverse subset of global stakeholders, including indigenous and local communities (Lundquist et al, 2017). These future visions were then used to catalyze the construction of the transformative Nature Futures Framework, a platform for scenario development that can provide for a diversity of human values and perspectives on nature and nature's contributions to people (Pereira et al, 2020). Otero et al (2020) misinterpret that this new scenarios framework is linked to the SSP-RCP scenario framework.…”