Identifying cloud forest conservation areas in Mexico from the potential distribution of 19 representative species

Abstract

Cloud forest is a sensitive and vulnerable ecosystem that is threatened by human activities as well as climate change. Previous studies have shown how transitional ecosystems such as cloud forests will be the most negatively impacted by the global increase in temperature. Therefore, the niche modeling framework was used in this study to geographically identify the areas with the climatic potential to host the largest number of key tree species in this ecosystem and to propose them as priority conservation areas. A total of 19 species were modeled using the MaxEnt algorithm; binary maps were generated for each species and combined to produce one potential suitability map and identify climatic priority areas. Thus, 7% of the national area of Mexico shows suitability for the cloud forest ecosystem, although it is currently distributed in less than 1% of the country. Finally, potential suitability areas were compared with natural protected areas, current land use and priority conservation areas. We found that of the current suitable area, only 5% coincides with some federal or state protection regime. Natural protected areas have proven to be a mechanism for forest conservation, so we must consider increasing the number and area of those protected areas that favor the conservation of these key cloud forest species.

Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

“…The PD areas in the TR Adequate-PD category (14 to 22 species) of the future scenarios were located in the areas that currently correspond to cloud forest (also in the Lacandona rainforest in the state of Chiapas). When compared to similar studies carried out for cloud forest [9], it is possible to foresee a more accentuated combination of floristic elements between both communities due to the change in their PD. However, in this study, we did not consider integrating the future adaptability of trees, appointed as the ability of forest species to grow successfully under climatic conditions different from those of their natural distributions [74].…”

“…Two climate change scenarios were applied: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3, both for RCP 8.5 scenarios to 2075-2099. The use of these climate change scenarios has been appropriate for climate change studies [9,36] and is recommended since the uncertainty in natural systems is considerable [12]. The General Circulation Models (GCM) were obtained from Fernández et al [45].…”

“…The best potential distribution models were created with the training and test GRs as well as the optimal parametrizations using 10 bootstrap replicas with logistic output. The logistic output was interpreted as a level of climatic suitability for the species [9,49]. The best models were evaluated with the final evaluation data with the partial ROC and omission rate criteria using the same package (Kuenm).…”

“…The aims of the work were: (1) to obtain the potential distribution of 22 species that have ecological value and are representative of tropical rainforests under current conditions and future climate change ones, by applying the ENM and SDM techniques through Maxent and Kuenm-they were chosen for their good performance, use and operation [25]; (2) to intersect the areas with the greatest potential distribution in the current and climate change scenarios, in order to identify areas of potential change (increase, decrease, permanence) of the ecosystem; (3) based on the previous objective, to propose areas for conservation of TRs based on climate change and the distribution of their species, also considering current land use and official protection areas. The results contribute to the debate in two ways: by modeling, with cartographic techniques, the potential distribution of an ecosystem based on its species, as other studies have proposed [9,26], and by discussing and providing basic information for decision-makers on environmental legislation and protection. Anticipating the effects of climate change should serve as a tool for proposing areas for conservation based on the richness of potential distributions.…”

“…Landscapes with substantial differences in plant cover [6] or landscapes fragmentated by deforestation can be found in Veracruz or Chiapas southern states [7]. In addition, climate change has recently been added as a relevant challenge for the ecosystem [8,9]. Mexico's location between two oceans and its complex relief lead to it being particularly impacted by climate change.…”