Identifying a New Social Intervention Model of Panic Buying Under Sudden Epidemic

Abstract

COVID-19 that broke out at the end of 2019 continues to spread globally, with frequent occurrence of variant disease strains, thus epidemic prevention and control become a kind of routine job. At present, due to the prevention and control measures such as maintaining social distance and community blockades, there is a boom in material purchases in many places, which not only seriously endangers social order and public environmental safety, but also easily leads to the interruption of the supply chain and the shortage of social materials. This article aims to study the intervention methods to curb the spread and spread of panic buying behavior. Firstly, through crawler technology and LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) topic model, this article analyzes the intervention measures taken by various social forces in China to curb the spread of panic buying, and summarizes the multi-channel intervention measures including online and offline forms. Secondly, through the multi-Agent Monte Carlo method, the targeted intervention mechanism is supplemented in each propagation link of the panic buying propagation model, and a new social intervention model of panic buying under sudden epidemic is constructed. Then, through MATLAB modeling and simulation, the main factors affecting panic buying intervention are discussed. The simulation results show that: (1) The single plan with the best intervention effect is the supply monitoring. While the official response can play an immediate inhibitory effect, but it is affected by credibility and timeliness. The intervention effect of psychological counseling is limited, and it generally needs to be used in combination with other measures. (2) The combination strategy with the best intervention effect is “supply monitoring + official response + psychological counseling,” and the worst is “information review and guidance + psychological counseling.” Supply monitoring is a key measure to curb panic buying. At the same time, “information review and guidance” will have a certain counter-effect in the combined strategy. Finally, the effectiveness and universality of the proposed model are verified by examples of China and Britain.

Review on Panic Buying Behavior during Pandemics: Influencing Factors, Stockpiling, and Intervention Strategies

“…It has been observed that suppliers can effectively reduce panic buying by adeptly responding to customer demand [ 32 , 33 , 34 ]. Also, interventions at various stages of panic executed by stakeholders are essential to effectively manage and control panic buying behavior [ 22 , 23 , 35 ]. Considering the above-mentioned aspects, the Socio-Economic Framework of Panic (SEFP) was developed by expanding upon the stages of panic buying behavior proposed by Naeem, 2021 [ 14 ].…”

“…[ 37 ], given as “a phenomenon characterized by a sudden surge in excessive purchasing prompted by disasters or outbreaks, resulting in imbalances between supply and demand”, covers only three stages in the SEFP: influencing factor, stockpiling, and shortage. Others use the term panic buying to refer only to stockpiling [ 15 , 35 , 38 ]. The term compulsive buying is sometimes used when the buying results from panic [ 39 ], while this term is often used to show buying because of other negative feelings such as depression [ 17 , 40 ].…”

“…flow" in the news can reduce rumors, but this intervention can diminish people's trust if used to conceal or downplay crisis-related facts. The literature shows some disagreements regarding the level of effectiveness among interventions and their perceived importance, e.g., social intervention is considered effective in Fu et al [35] but least effective in Prentice et al [78]. The literature also shows that a quantitative analysis on subsidies or supply resilience interventions, for example, is used only for the supply, but not for the other stages of the SEFP.…”