icumonitoring.ch
: a platform for short-term forecasting of intensive care unit occupancy during the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland

Zhao, Cheng; Tepekule, Burcu; Criscuolo, Nicola G.; Wendel‐Garcia, Pedro David; Hilty, Matthias P.; Fumeaux, Thierry; Boeckel, Thomas Van

doi:10.4414/smw.2020.20277

Cited by 37 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Sixth, the model parameters on the probability of death in hospital bed ( ε 3 ) and ICU ( ε 4 ) need to be interpreted with caution, as they contribute to a phenomenological description of the hospitalization pathway and implicitly account for deaths outside of hospitals as well. Hence, it is worth noting that the probability of death for ICU patients in Switzerland was reported at 23% [25], which is lower than the 50% used in our model. Finally, our modeling framework was not adapted to investigate the individual effects of single NPIs between 28 February and 20 March 2020.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…This finding may partially explain the lower numbers of SARS-CoV-2-related deaths in Austria, which was similarly affected by the proximity to the early outbreak in Italy but implemented strict control interventions at an earlier time point compared to Switzerland [12, 28]. Implementing the sequence of NPIs in Switzerland only one week later would likely have led to an overburdening of the healthcare system with a peak demand for ICUs of 1,908 (95% PI: 1,685–2,149), which is higher than the effective ad-hoc ICU bed capacity of 1,275 in April 2020 [25].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Time is of the essence: containment of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland from February to May 2020

Althaus

Probst

Hauser

et al. 2020

Preprint

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AIM: In late February and early March 2020, Switzerland experienced rapid growth of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections with 30,243 confirmed cases and 1,860 deaths as of 10 May 2020. The sequential introduction of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) resulted in successful containment of the epidemic. A better understanding of how the timing of implementing NPIs influences the dynamics and outcome of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics will be crucial for the management of a potential resurgence in Switzerland. METHODS: We developed a dynamic transmission model that describes infection, hospitalization, recovery and death due to SARS-CoV-2 in Switzerland. Using a maximum likelihood framework, we fitted the model to aggregated daily numbers of hospitalized patients, ICU occupancy and death from 25 February to 10 May 2020. We estimated critical parameters of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Switzerland and explored counterfactual scenarios of an earlier and later implementation of NPIs. RESULTS: We estimated the basic reproduction number R0 = 2.61 (95% compatibility interval, CI: 2.51-2.71) during the early exponential phase of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland. After the implementation of NPIs, the effective reproduction number approached Re = 0.64 (95% CI: 0.61-0.66). Based on the observed doubling times of the epidemic before and after the implementation of NPIs, we estimated that one week of early exponential spread required 3.1 weeks (95% CI: 2.8-3.3 weeks) of 'lockdown' to reduce the number of infections to the same level. Introducing the same sequence of NPIs one week earlier or later would have resulted in substantially lower (399, 95% prediction interval, PI: 347-458) and higher (8,683, 95% PI: 8,038-9,453) numbers of deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of NPIs in March 2020 prevented thousands of SARS-CoV-2-related deaths in Switzerland. Early implementation of NPIs during SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks can reduce the number of deaths and the necessary duration of strict control measures considerably.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time is of the essence: containment of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland from February to May 2020

Althaus

Probst

Hauser

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…We denoted this data with Î i corresponding to day t i . From the SIR model, the daily incidence was computed as (3) where ϑ = (R 0 , γ, k int , t int , δ int ) are the model parameters of the SIR model including an intervention as described above. The initial number of infected individuals was set from the available data so that I 0 = Î 0 .…”

Section: Bayesian Inference and Sampling Algorithmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The forecasting of the evolution of the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 and the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions are critical components for decision makers across the world. A broad range of data analysis tools and forecasting models have been deployed since the beginning of 2020 to assess the spread of the disease, as well as the expected number of infections and numbers of deaths [1][2][3]. A metric that is often deployed to quantify the progress of the disease is the reproduction number, which is the expected number of secondary cases caused by a single infected individual over the infectious period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Data-driven inference of the reproduction number for COVID-19 before and after interventions for 51 European countries

Karnakov¹,

Arampatzis²,

Kičić³

et al. 2020

Swiss Med Wkly

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The reproduction number is broadly considered as a key indicator for the spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic. Its estimated value is a measure of the necessity and, eventually, effectiveness of interventions imposed in various countries. Here we present an online tool for the data-driven inference and quantification of uncertainties for the reproduction number, as well as the time points of interventions for 51 European countries. The study relied on the Bayesian calibration of the SIR model with data from reported daily infections from these countries. The model fitted the data, for most countries, without individual tuning of parameters. We also compared the results of SIR and SEIR models, which give different estimates of the reproduction number, and provided an analytical relationship between the respective numbers. We deployed a Bayesian inference framework with efficient sampling algorithms, to present a publicly available graphical user interface (https://cse-lab.ethz.ch/coronavirus) that allows the user to assess and compare predictions for pairs of European countries. The results quantified the rate of the disease's spread before and after interventions, and provided a metric for the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in different countries. They also indicated how geographic proximity and the times of interventions affected the progression of the epidemic.

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“…As of April 3rd, 2020, in Switzerland the death rate of 2172 COVID-19 cases > 80 years of age men and women was 14.32 % increasing in the 60–69 yrs age group (1.49 % of 2543 confirmed cases). The 50–59 yrs age decade with 4022 cases had a death rate of 0.32 % diminishing with younger decades to negligible death rates ( www.bag.admin.ch , www.bfs.admin.ch ) [ 58 , 51 ].…”

Section: Diagnosis Of Covid-19 Supported By Laboratory Services Takinmentioning

confidence: 99%

A consideration of convalescent plasma and plasma derivatives in the care of Severely-ill patients with COVID-19

Lung

Kazatchkine

Risch

et al. 2020

Transfusion and Apheresis Science

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The pathogenesis and immunopathological damage of severe forms of COVID-19 resemble acute autoimmune disease sparked by SARS-CoV-2, including an early systemic overproduction of proinflammatory cytokines. Such immunopathological features provide a rationale for the use of passive immunotherapy with convalescent plasma as a source of neutralizing anti-viral antibodies and of anti-inflammatory plasma components. While convalescent plasma therapy is now being evaluated in prospective clinical trials, we further consider the therapeutic potential of human hyper immune globulins, and of heterologous, engineered and monoclonal neutralizing antibodies as anti-viral agents to treat COVID-19. Good medical practice procedures are still needed and is why we also discuss the potential use of polyclonal polyspecific immunoglobulins (IVIG), a therapeutic plasma derivative, with potent anti-inflammatory activity, in severe forms of Covid-19.

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icumonitoring.ch : a platform for short-term forecasting of intensive care unit occupancy during the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland

Cited by 37 publications

References 7 publications

Time is of the essence: containment of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland from February to May 2020

Time is of the essence: containment of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland from February to May 2020

Data-driven inference of the reproduction number for COVID-19 before and after interventions for 51 European countries

A consideration of convalescent plasma and plasma derivatives in the care of Severely-ill patients with COVID-19

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