Hydrological simulation of the Jialing River Basin using the MIKE SHE model in changing climate

Abstract

Climate change and human activities have an important impact on the changing environment, leading to significant changes in the basin water cycle process. The Jialing River Basin, the largest tributary of the upper Yangtze River, is selected as the study area. Three different rainfall datasets, the China Meteorological Assimilation Driving (CMAD) dataset, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data, and gauged observation data, were used as inputs for the MIKE System Hydrological European (MIKE SHE) model. By comparing the simulation results driven by various meteorological data, the applicability of the MIKE SHE model at four stations is evaluated, and the sensitivity and uncertainty of model parameters are analyzed. Meanwhile, the impact of large hydropower stations on the runoff of the Jialing River Basin is assessed, and the influence of human activities on the runoff change is determined. The future climate change of the watershed was analyzed by using the typical representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Based on the MIKE SHE model, the runoff of the Jialing River Basin in the future climate scenario is predicted, and the corresponding response of the Jialing River Basin is analyzed quantitatively. The results show that the CMAD data-driven model has better Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and correlation coefficient for each period. By analyzing the influence of hydropower station on the runoff process at the outlet of the basin, it is found that the hydropower station has a certain regulating effect on the runoff process at the outlet of the basin. In addition, the RCP4.5 scenario is more consistent with the future scenario, indicating that the Jialing River Basin will become colder and drier.

Agricultural Structures Management Based on Nonpoint Source Pollution Control in Typical Fuel Ethanol Raw Material Planting Area

“…Hydrological modeling was an important method to study the hydrological response process of land-use change [24]. At present, the commonly used hydrological models included the SWAT model [25], HSPF model [26], AGNPS model [27], MIKE model [28], and so on. Among them, the MIKE-SHE model can simulate the hydrological response process of land-use change, which has great advantages in small and mediumsized basins [29].…”

Application of the Regression-Augmented Regionalization Approach for BTOP Model in Ungauged Basins

“…Jialing River is an important tributary of the Yangtze River, and is an essential source of flood water and sediments for the Three Gorges Reservoir [34][35][36]. We selected 11 small and medium basins in the middle and lower reaches of the Jialing River basin with similar distance and discharge observation data of sub-basins as the study area (Figure 1).…”

Hydrologic regime alteration and influence factors in the Jialing River of the Yangtze River, China

“…In China, the large-scale construction of reservoirs in the Yangtze River basin since the 1960s, along with the soil and water conservation work in the Yangtze River basin, these large-scale human activities are bound to seriously disturb the alterations in the hydrological regime of the Yangtze River 7 . As one of the main tributaries of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the Jialing River has a significant runoff and precipitation, making it a tributary with a considerable potential for water resources exploitation on the Yangtze River 8 . Therefore, it is of great significance for the ecological restoration and sustainable development of the Yangtze River Basin to study the hydrological alterations of the Jialing River Basin and to evaluate the influence of various influencing factors on runoff qualitative and quantitatively.…”