HYDRODYNAMIC MODELS OF HUMAN STABILITY IN A FLOOD<sup>1</sup>

Lind, Niels C.; Hartford, Desmond N. D.; Assaf, Hamed

doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2004.tb01012.x

Cited by 65 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…7 also indicate that there are some reservations regarding the experimental data based on real human test subjects. For example, Lind et al (2004) noted that these two datasets should not be aggregated in the application process, because these datasets are too small, not random and consequently not representative enough. In addition, Abt et al (1989) reported that their experiments had some constraints, such as optimal experiment conditions, the presence of the safety equipment, healthy test subjects and the ability of the test subject to learn how to manoeuvre in the flow with time.…”

Section: Comparison With the Experimental Datasetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…the degree of flood hazard (Xia et al 2011), including: (1) formulae based on mechanical analysis and calibrated using laboratory experiments with models and/or real human subjects (Foster and Cox 1973;Abt et al 1989;Takahashi et al 1992;Karvonen et al 2000;Yee 2003;Jonkman and Penning-Rowsell 2008a, b;Russo et al 2013), and (2) formulae based on empirical or quasi-theoretical studies (Keller and Mitsch 1993;Lind et al 2004;Penning-Rowsell et al 2005a;Ramsbottom et al 2003Ramsbottom et al , 2006Ishigaki et al 2005Ishigaki et al , 2009). However, flood hazard assessments methods based only on laboratory experiments with models and/or real human subjects are usually too dependent on the physical characteristics of the model or the human subject, and cognitive characteristics of the tested human subjects, whereas flood hazard assessment methods based on empirical or quasi-theoretical work often excessively over-simplify the anatomy of human body and the hydraulic characteristics of the flow (Jonkman and Penning-Rowsell 2008a, b;Xia et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events

2016

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Climate change is expected to result in an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. In turn, this will result in more frequent occurrences of extreme flood events, such as flash flooding and large-scale river flooding. This being the case, there is a need for more accurate flood risk assessment schemes, particularly in areas prone to extreme flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by extreme flooding. Two flood hazard assessment criteria were tested, namely: a widely used, empirically derived method, and recently introduced, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. The two selected flood hazard assessment methods were: (1) validated against experimental data, and (2) used to assess flood hazard indices for two different extreme flood events, namely: the 2010 Kostanjevica na Krki extreme river flood and the 2007 Ž elezniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas prone to extreme flooding, the flood hazard indices should be based on using the formulae derived for a mechanics-based analysis, as these formulations consider all of the physical forces acting on a human body in floodwaters, take into account the rapid changes in the flow regime, which often occur for extreme flood events, and enable a rapid assessment of the degree of flood hazard risk in a short time period, a feature particularly important when assessing flood hazard indices for high Froude numbers flows.

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Section: Comparison With the Experimental Datasetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events

2016

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“…Lind and Hartford (2000), also see Lind et al (2004), derived theoretical relationships for the stability in water flows of three shapes representing the human body: a circular cylindrical body, a square parallelepiped body, and composite cylinders (two small ones for the legs and one for the torso). Based on the developed relationships and calibration with test data, they proposed a reliability function that can be used the probability of instability for a given person under certain flow conditions.…”

Section: Human Instability In Flowing Watermentioning

confidence: 99%

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

2008

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This article deals with methods for the estimation of loss of life due to flooding. These methods can be used to assess the flood risks and to identify mitigation strategies. The first part of this article contains a comprehensive review of existing literature. Methods have been developed for different types of floods in different regions. In general these methods relate the loss of life in the flooded area to the flood characteristics and the possibilities for evacuation and shelter. An evaluation showed that many of the existing methods do not take into account all of the most relevant determinants of loss of life and that they are often to a limited extent based on empirical data of historical flood events. In the second part of the article, a new method is proposed for the estimation of loss of life caused by the flooding of low-lying areas protected by flood defences. An estimate of the loss of life due to a flood event can be given based on: (1) information regarding the flood characteristics, (2) an analysis of the exposed population and evacuation, and (3) an estimate of the mortality amongst the exposed population. By analysing empirical information from historical floods, new mortality functions have been developed. These relate the mortality amongst the exposed population to the flood characteristics. Comparison of the outcomes of the proposed method with information from historical flood events shows that it gives an accurate approximation of the number of observed fatalities during these events. The method is applied to assess the consequences for a largescale flooding of the area of South Holland, in the Netherlands. It is estimated that the analysed coastal flood scenario can lead to approximately 3,200 fatalities in this area.

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“…Jonkman and Rowsell (2008) discuss how human instability relates to moment and friction instability. Lind and Hartford (2000) and Lind et al (2004) present mechanical and empirical models of the hydrodynamics of moment instability (toppling) taking into account the height and weight of the exposed people, and the velocity and depth of the flowing water.…”

Section: Current Methods Of Modelling Fatality Numbersmentioning

confidence: 99%

A simple model for the estimation of the number of fatalities due to floods in central Europe

Brazdova

Říha

2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract.In this paper a model for the estimation of the number of potential fatalities is proposed based on data from 19 past floods in central Europe. First, the factors contributing to human losses during river floods are listed and assigned to the main risk factors: hazard -exposure -vulnerability. The order of significance of individual factors has been compiled by pairwise comparison based on experience with real flood events. A comparison with factors used in existing models for the estimation of fatalities during floods shows good agreement with the significant factors identified in this study. The most significant factors affecting the number of human losses in floods have been aggregated into three groups and subjected to correlation analysis. A close-fitting regression dependence is proposed for the estimation of loss of life and calibrated using data from selected real floods in central Europe. The application of the proposed model for the estimation of fatalities due to river floods is shown via a flood risk assessment for the locality of Krnov in the Czech Republic.

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HYDRODYNAMIC MODELS OF HUMAN STABILITY IN A FLOOD¹

Cited by 65 publications

References 3 publications

Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events

Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

A simple model for the estimation of the number of fatalities due to floods in central Europe

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HYDRODYNAMIC MODELS OF HUMAN STABILITY IN A FLOOD1

Cited by 65 publications

References 3 publications

Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events

Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

A simple model for the estimation of the number of fatalities due to floods in central Europe

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Product

Resources

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HYDRODYNAMIC MODELS OF HUMAN STABILITY IN A FLOOD¹