Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

Abstract

This article deals with methods for the estimation of loss of life due to flooding. These methods can be used to assess the flood risks and to identify mitigation strategies. The first part of this article contains a comprehensive review of existing literature. Methods have been developed for different types of floods in different regions. In general these methods relate the loss of life in the flooded area to the flood characteristics and the possibilities for evacuation and shelter. An evaluation showed that many of the existing methods do not take into account all of the most relevant determinants of loss of life and that they are often to a limited extent based on empirical data of historical flood events. In the second part of the article, a new method is proposed for the estimation of loss of life caused by the flooding of low-lying areas protected by flood defences. An estimate of the loss of life due to a flood event can be given based on: (1) information regarding the flood characteristics, (2) an analysis of the exposed population and evacuation, and (3) an estimate of the mortality amongst the exposed population. By analysing empirical information from historical floods, new mortality functions have been developed. These relate the mortality amongst the exposed population to the flood characteristics. Comparison of the outcomes of the proposed method with information from historical flood events shows that it gives an accurate approximation of the number of observed fatalities during these events. The method is applied to assess the consequences for a largescale flooding of the area of South Holland, in the Netherlands. It is estimated that the analysed coastal flood scenario can lead to approximately 3,200 fatalities in this area.

Visk: A Gis-Compatible Platform for Micro-Scale Assessment of Flooding Risk in Urban Areas

“…The user-guided boundary recognition operation not only helps in creating a digital database of buildings for which risk assessment is later going to be performed but also helps in characterizing the building-to-building variability in the dimension of the wall which is going to resist the flood action. 1 Figure 2: Acquisition of data regarding building footprint.…”

“…Are the doors sufficiently water-proof DS Are the windows sufficiently water-proof WS 1 Neglecting the effect of internal walls or embedded columns in reducing the "free" loading span. Table 1 reports the list of discrete binary uncertain parameters/logic statements considered and the related input accepted by VISK.…”

“…In recent years, increasing attention is focused on flooding risk assessment. In fact, several publications document and discuss the consequences of flooding, such as loss of life [1], economic losses [2][3][4] and damage to buildings [5][6][7][8]. These research efforts have many aspects in common, such as a direct link between the flooding intensity and the incurred damage, and that they are based on real damage observed in the aftermath of a flooding event.…”

An integrated approach of flood risk assessment in the eastern part of Dhaka City

“…Very few studies provide comprehensive assessment on remaining categories of damages. Jonkman et al (2008) and Ahern et al (2005), for example, estimate loss of life and health impacts respectively. However, until recently, consideration of tangible-intangible-direct-indirect categories of damages in a single risk assessment framework is rare Balbi et al 2013;Giupponi et al 2015).…”

Variations in population vulnerability to tectonic and landslide-related tsunami hazards in Alaska

“…To support tsunami preparedness and education efforts, there has been considerable work in recent years to characterize population vulnerability to tsunamis, including exposure assessments (Wood 2007;Lovholt et al 2012), demographic sensitivity analyses (Wood et al 2010), pedestrian evacuation modeling (e.g., Jonkmann et al 2008;Post et al 2009;Yeh et al 2009;Schmidtlein 2012, 2013;Freire et al 2013), and vertical evacuation siting (Park et al 2012;Wood et al 2014). All of these efforts contribute to understanding whether or not at-risk populations would have sufficient time to evacuate hazard zones before tsunami waves arrive and for recognizing what landscape or demographic characteristics may hinder their ability to evacuate.…”