Hydro, wind and solar power as a base for a 100% renewable energy supply for South and Central America

Barbosa, Larissa de Souza Noel Simas; Bogdanov, Dmitrii; Vainikka, Pasi; Breyer, Christian

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0173820

Cited by 149 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…The sub- [45]. ST: steam turbine; PtH: power-to-heat done by heating rod; ICE: internal coombustion engine; GT: gas turbine; PtG: power-to-gas; PHS: pumped hydro storage; HVDC: high voltage direct current; A-CAES: adiabatic compressed air energy storage; TES: thermal energy storage; HHB: hot heat burner; and CSP: concentrating solar thermal power.…”

Section: Subdivision Of the Region And Grid Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

A Cost Optimized Fully Sustainable Power System for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim

2017

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Abstract:In this paper, a cost optimal 100% renewable energy based system is obtained for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim region for the year 2030 on an hourly resolution for the whole year. For the optimization, the region was divided into 15 sub-regions and three different scenarios were set up based on the level of high voltage direct current grid connections. The results obtained for a total system levelized cost of electricity showed a decrease from 66.7 €/MWh in a decentralized scenario to 63.5 €/MWh for a centralized grid connected scenario. An integrated scenario was simulated to show the benefit of integrating additional demand of industrial gas and desalinated water which provided the system the required flexibility and increased the efficiency of the usage of storage technologies. This was reflected in the decrease of system cost by 9.5% and the total electricity generation by 5.1%. According to the results, grid integration on a larger scale decreases the total system cost and levelized cost of electricity by reducing the need for storage technologies due to seasonal variations in weather and demand profiles. The intermittency of renewable technologies can be effectively stabilized to satisfy hourly demand at a low cost level. A 100% renewable energy based system could be a reality economically and technically in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim with the cost assumptions used in this research and it may be more cost competitive than the nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives.

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Section: Subdivision Of the Region And Grid Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

A Cost Optimized Fully Sustainable Power System for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim

2017

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“…The aim of the system optimization is to minimize the total annual cost of the installed capacities of the different technologies, cost of energy generation and generation ramping. The full description of the model, its input data including RE resources and technical assumptions can be found in Bogdanov and Breyer [29] and Barbosa et al [39].…”

Section: Model Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the design and analysis of the energy transition, the energy model, used and further developed at LUT, is used [29,[39][40][41]. The LUT Energy System Transition model is based on the linear optimization method with interior point optimization, and is designed in an hourly temporal and 0.45 • × 0.45 • spatial resolution.…”

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confidence: 99%

Role of Seawater Desalination in the Management of an Integrated Water and 100% Renewable Energy Based Power Sector in Saudi Arabia

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Afanasyeva

et al. 2017

Water

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This work presents a pathway for Saudi Arabia to transition from the 2015 power structure to a 100% renewable energy-based system by 2050 and investigates the benefits of integrating the power sector with the growing desalination sector. Saudi Arabia can achieve 100% renewable energy power system by 2040 while meeting increasing water demand through seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) and multiple effect distillation (MED) desalination plants. The dominating renewable energy sources are PV single-axis tracking and wind power plants with 243 GW and 83 GW, respectively. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of the 2040 system is 49 €/MWh and decreases to 41 €/MWh by 2050. Corresponding levelised cost of water (LCOW) is found to be 0.8 €/m 3 and 0.6 €/m 3 . PV single-axis tracking dominates the power sector. By 2050 solar PV accounts for 79% of total electricity generation. Battery storage accounts for 41% of total electricity demand. In the integrated scenario, due to flexibility provided by SWRO plants, there is a reduced demand for battery storage and power-to-gas (PtG) plants as well as a reduction in curtailment. Thus, the annual levelised costs of the integrated scenario is found to be 1-3% less than the non-integrated scenario.

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“…Many energy security analyses omit potential future changes in the energy mix, the implications that a growing uptake of renewable energy could have [14,15], and the influence of broader societal transformations. The first attempts to address energy security in a renewable energy world are emerging [16][17][18], but few efforts to date capture the true complexity to reach or sustain such a future society.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A growing body of literature examines energy transitions to understand energy landscape changes [19][20][21]. This includes studies on a 100% renewable energy system as a neo-carbon energy system [14,15]. BBestguess^future conditions might not be enough, and therefore multiple plausible futures should be considered [22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Surprise as the new normal – implications for energy security

et al. 2017

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We are living in a world of increasing interconnectedness through digitalisation and globalisation, exacerbating environmental conditions, severe economic challenges, uneven distribution of wealth, and geopolitical crises. The world is a complex system and the rapid change among its sub-systems builds up pressure for any efforts to anticipate change and shape the processes of transformation. Surprise is an intrinsic aspect of change, in particular when it takes place at an accelerating pace with high degrees of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity (VUCA) -or within the condition of post-normality as described by Ziauddin Sardar. Emerging technologies such as AI and renewable energy systems add to the complexity of societies, and thus to the world of VUCA and post-normality. In foresight horizon scanning has much focused on the probable or even predictable -surprise-free developments. More emphasis should be paid on systematic anticipation of wild cards and black swans, and on the analysis of weak signals. Foresight should also focus on discontinuities -broader phenomena and developments instead of single events. Energy is a complex issue. Without energy there is no life, neither biological nor economic. Taking into account the huge ecological and social costs of the present energy system, the need for a new emission-free, cost-effective, and democratised energy system is obvious. An energy transformation to reach 100% renewable energy is envisioned in four transformational neo-carbon energy scenarios. Energy is increasingly a societal and even cultural issue -above all a security issue. As regards energy security, various sudden events and surprises could play a major role. New energy systems themselves, with other new technologies, nudge the world into unknown, discontinuous directions. Therefore, we probe the resilience, anti-fragility and discontinuity of these transformational, societal energy scenarios. The results of a futures clinique where the scenarios were tested are presented. Implications of surprises for energy security, as the world increasingly seeks to move towards a renewable energy based society, are explored.

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Hydro, wind and solar power as a base for a 100% renewable energy supply for South and Central America

Cited by 149 publications

References 23 publications

A Cost Optimized Fully Sustainable Power System for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim

A Cost Optimized Fully Sustainable Power System for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Rim

Role of Seawater Desalination in the Management of an Integrated Water and 100% Renewable Energy Based Power Sector in Saudi Arabia

Surprise as the new normal – implications for energy security

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