Surprise as the new normal – implications for energy security

Abstract

We are living in a world of increasing interconnectedness through digitalisation and globalisation, exacerbating environmental conditions, severe economic challenges, uneven distribution of wealth, and geopolitical crises. The world is a complex system and the rapid change among its sub-systems builds up pressure for any efforts to anticipate change and shape the processes of transformation. Surprise is an intrinsic aspect of change, in particular when it takes place at an accelerating pace with high degrees of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity (VUCA) -or within the condition of post-normality as described by Ziauddin Sardar. Emerging technologies such as AI and renewable energy systems add to the complexity of societies, and thus to the world of VUCA and post-normality. In foresight horizon scanning has much focused on the probable or even predictable -surprise-free developments. More emphasis should be paid on systematic anticipation of wild cards and black swans, and on the analysis of weak signals. Foresight should also focus on discontinuities -broader phenomena and developments instead of single events. Energy is a complex issue. Without energy there is no life, neither biological nor economic. Taking into account the huge ecological and social costs of the present energy system, the need for a new emission-free, cost-effective, and democratised energy system is obvious. An energy transformation to reach 100% renewable energy is envisioned in four transformational neo-carbon energy scenarios. Energy is increasingly a societal and even cultural issue -above all a security issue. As regards energy security, various sudden events and surprises could play a major role. New energy systems themselves, with other new technologies, nudge the world into unknown, discontinuous directions. Therefore, we probe the resilience, anti-fragility and discontinuity of these transformational, societal energy scenarios. The results of a futures clinique where the scenarios were tested are presented. Implications of surprises for energy security, as the world increasingly seeks to move towards a renewable energy based society, are explored.

Future smart energy software houses

“…By and large future energy systems-particularly electricity systems-are complex technological, social, economic, and environmental constellations [7,18]. It follows that in addition to the specific discipline, knowledge also high-level competencies like complex systems thinking and modeling are increasingly needed to understand new electricity systems with smart grids [19].…”

“…• EU 2030 Energy Strategy [55] • Electrification (in the large) [7] • Low-carbon transitions [4] • Energy landscape changes [18] Energy (Electricity) systems…”

Post-normal times: re-thinking the futures of the EU-Africa relationship

“…Post-normal times as a concept intends to account for a new world order where the "normal" relationships that characterized the post-World War II period are progressively evolving into patterns that are more complex. Heinonen et al ( [19], p1) argue that "digitalisation and globalisation, exacerbating environmental conditions, severe economic challenges, uneven distribution of wealth, and geopolitical crises" are making changes less and less predictable and highlight "surprises as the new normality". This state of the world is the reason why post-normal times are defined using the "3Cs" of chaos, complexity and contradiction [16].…”

Why should we understand the future and how can we do it?

“…And, when new value systems, social practices and organizational cultures also take root, the entire society changes. In this kind of scanning drivers for change and looking for patterns of change to understand it, more emphasis could be paid for futures literacy and re‐framing the issues under scanning (Miller, ), digging deeper into hidden assumptions of the change actors (Inayatullah, ) and into discontinuities affecting the change patterns (Heinonen et al, ).…”