Historical evidence of climate change impact on drought outlook in river basins: analysis of annual maximum drought severities through daily SPI definitions

Gül, Gülay Onuşluel; Gül, Ali; Najar, Mohamed

doi:10.1007/s11069-021-04995-0

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Among the top ten global environmental problems, climate change has been listed as the primary problem and has attracted more and more attention [1][2][3]. Responses and feedbacks generated by terrestrial ecosystems have become one of the key research space and focal issues under global climate change [4][5][6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential geographic distribution of relict plant Pteroceltis tatarinowii in China under climate change scenarios

et al. 2022

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Pteroceltis tatarinowii (Pteroceltis: Ulmaceae) is a deciduous tree that has a cultivation history of more than 2000 years in China. As an excellent afforestation tree species and rare and endangered tertiary relic plant, P. tatarinowii has high ecological protection value. Due to the forest destruction caused by predatory logging and natural environmental factors, the population of P. tatarinowii in China has decreased significantly. In this study, the potential geographical distribution of P. tatarinowii in China under climate change was predicted using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS based on 223 effective distribution points of P. tatarinowii and 11 environmental variables. The results showed that: (1) the prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model was extremely high, and the areas under curve (AUC) value of the training data was 0.936; The area of the potential suitable habitat area of P. tatarinowii under current climate condition was 180.84×104 km2, and mainly located in the central and southeast regions of China. (2) The domain environmental variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of P. tatarinowii were min temperature of coldest month (12.1~22.7°C), isothermality (26.6~35.8), mean diurnal range 6.9~9.3°C and precipitation of wettest month (189.5 ~955.5 mm). (3) In 2050s and 2070s, compared with current (4.19×104 km2), the area of highly suitable habitat will increase by 0.2%-0.3% (RCP2.6) and 1.22%-3.84% (RCP8.5) respectively. while the poorly, moderately and total suitable habitats will decrease. The gravity center of P. tatarinowii showed a trend of migration to higher latitudes and northern regions in the future. These results will provide theoretical basis for cultivation management and resource protection of P. tatarinowii.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential geographic distribution of relict plant Pteroceltis tatarinowii in China under climate change scenarios

et al. 2022

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“…Spatially speaking, having the same SPI value in a humid area and a semi‐arid area signifies that the total precipitation in the two cities is of equal anomaly or intensity, after having accounted for the difference in background climatology. This eases comparison of precipitation extremes across a large region such as the Midwest, also is the primary reason why SPI has been used frequently for identifying precipitation extremes in previous studies (e.g., Zhang et al ., 2009; Mallya et al ., 2016; Onuşluel Gül et al ., 2021) and was one of the many reasons SPI was recommended to the WMO as a primary indicator for monitoring meteorological drought worldwide (Hayes et al ., 2011).…”

Section: Datasets and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in the transitions of monthly‐to‐seasonal precipitation extremes over the Midwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models

Chen

Ford

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Precipitation extremes present significant risks to Midwest agriculture, water resources, and natural ecosystems. Recently, there is growing attention to the transitions of precipitation extremes, or shifts between heavy precipitation and drought, due to their profound environmental and socio‐economic impacts. Changes in Midwest precipitation extremes and transitions between extremes over the past few decades have been documented; however, their future changes are still unknown. In this study, we estimate the projected changes in transitions of precipitation extremes in the Midwest based on 17 CMIP6 models. Two Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based metrics, intra‐annual variability and transitions, are used to quantify the magnitude, duration, and frequency of variability and transitions between wet and dry extremes. Compared with the observation‐based precipitation datasets, the multimodel ensemble median of CMIP6 can reasonably represent the spatial patterns of SPI extremes and transitions. Climate projections show significantly intensified wet extremes across the Midwest by the end of the century, with a greater increase over the northern Midwest and the Great Lakes region. The short‐term SPI also shows intensified dry extremes over the western half of the Midwest. Consequently, there is a significant increase in the magnitude of intra‐annual variability in most areas. Projections also suggest more frequent and rapid transitions between the wet and dry extremes, especially over the Great Lakes region and northern Midwest. Seasonally, more frequent transitions from a wet spring to a dry summer (or from a dry fall to a wet winter/spring) are projected to occur; and generally, the wet and dry conditions between the transitions are projected to be more intense compared to the historical period. Furthermore, the intensified precipitation extremes and accelerated transitions are greatly alleviated under a lower emission scenario, implying that future changes in hydroclimate extremes, and impacts thereof, in the Midwest are sensitive to climate change mitigation.

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“…Flash droughts can only be identified with daily drought 90 indices, due to their sub-monthly timescale nature. Therefore, concurrently with the widespread observation-based and model-based daily datasets such as the National Gridded Dataset for the Iberia Peninsula (IB01; Herrera et al, 2019), or the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (Giorgi et al, 2009;, Gutowski et al, 2016 for the European domain (EURO-CORDEX, Jacob et al, 2014;, the development of new drought indices with a daily time step has emerged (Wang et al, 2015;95 Jia et al, 2018;Li et al, 2020;Ma et al, 2020;Onuşluel Gül et al, 2021;Zhang et al, 2022a;. At the same time, most of these indices are still fitted to a probability distribution and/or are not standardized.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Generalized drought index: A novel multi-scale daily approach for drought assessment

Careto,

Cardoso,

Russo

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. Drought is a complex climatic phenomenon characterized by water scarcity recognized as the most widespread and insidious natural hazard, posing significant challenges to ecosystems and human society. In this study, we propose a new daily based index for characterizing droughts, which involves standardizing precipitation and/or precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration data. The performance of this new index is assessed with data from the evaluation runs of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for the European domain and the observational data from the Iberian Gridded Dataset, covering the period from 1989 to 2009. Comparative assessments are conducted against the daily Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and a simple Z-Score standardization of climatic variables. Seven different accumulation periods are considered (7, 15, 30, 90, 180, 360, and 720 days) with three drought levels: moderate, severe, and extreme. The evaluation focuses mainly on the direct comparison amongst indices, added value assessment using the Distribution Added Value and a simple bias difference for drought characteristics. Results reveal that not only does the new index allow the characterization of flash droughts, but also demonstrates added value when compared to SPI and SPEI, especially for longer accumulation periods. In comparison to the Z-Score, the new index shows slightly greater gains, particularly for extreme drought events at lower accumulation periods. Furthermore, an assessment of the spatial extent of drought for the 2004–2005 event is performed using the observational dataset. All three indices generally provide similar representations, except for the Z-Score, which exhibits limitations in capturing extreme drought events at lower accumulation periods. Overall, the findings suggest that the new index offers improved performance and adds value comparatively to similar indices with a daily time step.

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Historical evidence of climate change impact on drought outlook in river basins: analysis of annual maximum drought severities through daily SPI definitions

Cited by 8 publications

References 19 publications

Potential geographic distribution of relict plant Pteroceltis tatarinowii in China under climate change scenarios

Potential geographic distribution of relict plant Pteroceltis tatarinowii in China under climate change scenarios

Future changes in the transitions of monthly‐to‐seasonal precipitation extremes over the Midwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models

Generalized drought index: A novel multi-scale daily approach for drought assessment

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