This review outlines the use of documentary evidence of historical flood events in contemporary flood frequency estimation in European countries.The study shows that despite widespread consensus in the scientific literature on the utility of documentary evidence, the actual migration from academic to practical application has been limited. A detailed review of flood frequency estimation guidelines from different countries showed that the value of historical data is generally recognised, but practical methods for systematic and routine inclusion of this type of data into risk analysis are in most cases not available. Studies of historical events were identified in most countries, and good examples of national databases attempting to collate the available information were identified. The conclusion is that there is considerable potential for improving the reliability of the current flood risk assessments by harvesting the valuable information on past extreme events contained in the historical data sets.
The necessity of estimating the degree and spatial extent of positive impacts with regard to protecting communities and properties through potential flood control projects can be considered one of the main reasons for performing flood modeling. This paper presents an overall systematic approach based on the simulation of some extreme event conditions, using a hydrological model to generate the resulting river flows and then using a hydraulic modeling exercise to decide upon floodplain evolution in the case-study area, Bostanli river basin, which has been under the threat of flooding for many years. The potential serviceability of the planned Bostanli Dam in the study area was examined by using the HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS modeling tools, both integrated with GIS functions for spatial operations. The results indicate that the dam construction as planned would have a somewhat positive impact as a potential flood control measure, since it seems to decrease the flood peaks of 68.9 and 158.7 m 3 /s (that would potentially be generated by 100-and 500-year storm events under current conditions) to 65.5 and 150.7 m 3 /s (when the dam is in operation), respectively. However, this seems to contribute little to the overall flood mitigation performance in the basin.
The fourth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests studies that increase the spatial resolution to solve the scale mismatch between large-scale climatic models and the catchment scale while addressing climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Impacts occur mostly at the local scale, though potential changes in the hydrological cycle and eco-hydrological processes are more difficult to model and analyse at this level. The difficulty is even greater for studies on lowland river systems, which require the modelling of hydrological processes in greater detail. In this study, the regional impacts of climate change on river flow and environmental flow requirement, which is a negotiated trade-off between water uses, are analysed for a lowland catchment in Denmark through MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 coupling. The coupled model possesses an important capacity for simulating stream flows and groundwater head levels in a dynamic system. Although the simulation results from different global circulation models (GCMs) indicate different responses in flows to the climate change, there are obvious deviations of the river flows and environmental flow potentials computed for all the scenario cases from the averages of the base period with current conditions.
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