Historical change of El Niño properties sheds light on future changes of extreme El Niño

Wang, Bin; Luo, Xiao; Yang, Young‐Min; Sun, Weiyi; Cane, Mark A.; Cai, Wenju; Yeh, Sang‐Wook; Liu, Jian

doi:10.1073/pnas.1911130116

Cited by 263 publications

(213 citation statements)

References 36 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

185

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The results confirm that (a) the onset of MCP events primarily involves the zonal advective feedback by anomalous currents, (b) the onset of MEP events is mainly attributed to the thermocline feedback in the eastern Pacific, and (c) the early onset of SBW events involves three feedback processes—the zonal advective, upwelling, and thermocline feedbacks. The reasons have been elucidated in Wang et al (2019) and will not be repeated here.…”

Section: Diversity In El Niño Onset: Distinctive Mechanisms Precursomentioning

confidence: 99%

El Niño Diversity Across Boreal Spring Predictability Barrier

Wang

Luo

Sun

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

El Niño exerts widespread hydroclimate impacts during boreal summer. However, the current prediction of El Niño across boreal spring has the most severe forecast errors, partially due to the lack of understanding diversified El Niño onset and decay. Here we show, through nonlinear k‐means cluster analysis of evolutions of 40 El Niño events since 1870, El Niño exhibits complex and diverse flavors in its onset and decay across boreal spring predictability barrier. We detected three types of El Niño onset and three types of decay. Each type exhibits distinct coupled dynamics, precursors, and hydroclimate impacts. The results guide the prediction of different types of El Niño transition amid spring predictability barrier and global land precipitation during early and late boreal summer. The new classification offers a metric to evaluate performances of climate models and to project future change of El Niño properties and its predictability.

show abstract

Section: Diversity In El Niño Onset: Distinctive Mechanisms Precursomentioning

confidence: 99%

El Niño Diversity Across Boreal Spring Predictability Barrier

Wang

Luo

Sun

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…It is therefore necessary to perform a similar analysis using in situ observations and remote sensing data. Finally, we note that, if the anthropogenic emission of ozone precursors decreases, the second EOF mode of ozone concentrations will become more important in a future warmer world, since ENSO will be more active [71]. It is therefore necessary to understand how the linkage between East Asian ozone and ENSO may vary as global warming is intensified, which needs further study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Near-Surface Ozone Variations in East Asia during Boreal Summer

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study examined the variability of near-surface (850 hPa) ozone during summer in East Asia using simulations from 12 models participating in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of non-detrended ozone shows that the first (second) EOF mode is characterized by a monopole (dipole) structure that describe 83.3% (7.1%) of total variance. The corresponding the first principle component (PC1) time series exhibits a gradually increasing trend due to the rising anthropogenic emission, whereas PC2 shows interannual variation. To understand the drivers of this interannual variability, the detrended ozone is also analyzed. The two leading EOF patterns of detrended ozone, EOF1 and EOF2, explain 37.0% and 29.2% of the total variance, respectively. The regression results indicate that the positive ozone anomaly in East Asia associated with EOF1 is caused by the combination of net ozone production and transport from the upper atmosphere. In contrast, EOF2 is associated with the weakened western Pacific subtropical high during the La Niña decaying summer, which tends to decrease monsoon precipitation, thus increasing ozone concentration in China. Our results suggest that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a key role in driving interannual variability in tropospheric ozone in East Asia.Atmosphere 2020, 11, 206 2 of 17 in areas where ozone is not generally produced [8]. Ozone is more prevalent at higher altitudes in the troposphere of the mid-latitudes. Therefore, downward motion leads to more surface ozone by the transport of higher ozone air from the upper troposphere. In addition, when stratospheric ozone flows directly into the troposphere because of tropopause folding or the development of a strong low-pressure system, the concentration of ozone also increases in the upper-middle troposphere [15,16]. The interannual variability such as the East Asian monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can also result in the redistribution of tropospheric ozone [9][10][11]17,18]. For example, the tropical Pacific ozone concentration varies with the location and intensity of the anomalous vertical motions associated with the Walker circulation that is closely tied to ENSO [19][20][21]. Note that if the various factors affecting ozone concentration act in combination, the characteristics of ozone variation will differ significantly from region to region.East Asia has recently undergone a strong trend of increasing ozone [8], which can be associated with the increase in ozone precursor emissions [22,23]. The East Asia is dominated by southerly winds originating from the western North Pacific Ocean during the boreal summer that affect both climate [24] and air quality [17]. Inland regions that are far from the ocean are subjected to active ozone production under strong solar radiation, and because of the increase in excited oxygen atoms (O 1 D) that catalytically destroy ozone [25], the moistened air coming from the ocean results in a decrease of ozone. This may...

show abstract

“…Sin embargo, a pesar de la pérdida de participación de los alimentos dentro de la canasta familiar, su incidencia sobre la inflación al consumidor podría no haber disminuido tanto por cuenta de los efectos climáticos adversos que son hoy más intensos y recurrentes que en el pasado. Según Wang et al, (2019), durante los últimos 40 años El Niño viene aumentando su intensidad, frecuencia y duración, al punto que se han registrado eventos muy extremos denominado "Súper El Niño". Los autores encontraron que el Súper El Niño se genera por el trasladado del origen del calentamiento de aguas, del Este del Pacífico al Oeste, y que tal traslado se explica por el cambio climático provocado por factores antrópicos -generados por el ser humano-.…”

Section: Sector Agropecuariounclassified

Hechos estilizados de la relación entre Él niño, La niña y la inflación en Colombia

Bejarano-Salcedo¹,

Caicedo-García²,

Lizarazo-Bonilla³

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This document presents a characterization of the meteorological phenomena of El Niño and La Niña, and a description of their main effects on pollution in Colombia. These climatic episodes have been presented for centuries in the national territory, generating changes in the level of temperatures and rainfall in most of the Colombian territory, without having historically had a regular pattern of occurrence and intensity. During the occurrence of El Niño, the negative effect on the agricultural sector is highlighted, which strongly impacts the prices of the food basket and, to a lesser extent, annual inflation to the consumer. Despite the non-systematic occurrence of these climatic events, food inflation, consumer inflation and the relative price of food that lead bullish behavior during the occurrence of El Niño. During La Niña there is a loss of consumer prices. The relative price of food shows reductions at the conclusion of either phenomenon.

show abstract

Historical change of El Niño properties sheds light on future changes of extreme El Niño

Cited by 263 publications

References 36 publications

El Niño Diversity Across Boreal Spring Predictability Barrier

El Niño Diversity Across Boreal Spring Predictability Barrier

Near-Surface Ozone Variations in East Asia during Boreal Summer

Hechos estilizados de la relación entre Él niño, La niña y la inflación en Colombia

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About